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外文摘要
引文資料
題名:
決策加權函數的形式及心理解釋
書刊名:
中華心理學刊
作者:
劉世南
/
鄭中平
作者(外文):
Liou, Shyhnan
/
Cheng, Chung-ping
出版日期:
2002
卷期:
44:1
頁次:
頁57-73
主題關鍵詞:
不確定下決策
;
不確定感
;
不確定性態度
;
決策加權函數
;
Decision under uncertainty
;
Perceived ambiguity
;
Ambiguous attitude
;
Decision weight function
原始連結:
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相關次數:
被引用次數:期刊(
2
) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(
3
)
排除自我引用:0
共同引用:
4
點閱:146
不確定下的決策行為主要判斷事件發生機率與事件後果。近來實徵研究一致指出,決策加權函數(Decision Weighting Function)違反機率運作原理,而呈現反S型的非線性心理物理轉換。Tversky與Wakker(1995)提出「有界的次加成」特徵與測量描述這種以機率1或0為參考點的敏感遞減現象。Gonzaiez與Wu(1999)繼之分別以「區辨性」與「吸引性」說明該函數的曲線「曲度」以及「升降」的心理物理函數特徵。本研究一以表現該兩項特性為判準。比較不同決策加權函數(分別為Einhorn & Hogarth, 1985; Kahn & Sarin, 1998; Lattimore et al., 1992)的描述力,並提出實徵特性較佳的雙參數Liou模型。研究二即對該兩項特徵提出心理解釋,假設「不確定感程度」(感覺因素)影響決策加權函數的區辨性,而「不確定態度」(非感覺因素)則影響函數的吸引性。在分別操弄「不確定感程度」(証據份量及熟悉程度)與「不確定態度」(得失觀點及後果嚴重性),結果証實所提出的解釋。並經由研究二實徵資料的曲線符合度與敏感度分析,証實Liou模型為最具描述力的決策加權函數型式。函數(Utility Function,以U(X)表示)轉換而得的效益值(U(Xi))表示。而某個選項的吸引力(SEU值),即是各種後果的效益值乘以主觀機率(P(Xi))權重後的加成而時,即SEU(X)= 。後繼理論以反映決策選擇行為真實性的描述取向,即注重效益與主觀機率的心理轉換而修正SEU理論(Kahneman & Tversky, 1979; Tversky & Kahnema, 1992)。 近來實徵研究一致指出,決策者對機率的估計反機率運作原理,而呈現反S型的非線性心理物理轉換,稱為機率加權函數(Probability Weighting Function)。亦即機率加權函數呈現低機率高權重、高機率低權重,先可後臺的反S型曲線特性。機率加權並非可由主權機率直接預測,而是反應決策者機率運作的心理物理轉換(Gonzales & Wu, 1999),故亦稱之為決策加權函數(Decision Weight Function,例如Tversky & Kahneman, 1992)。若出A後果的機率為P(P,A),則決策加權(Decision Weight,簡稱DW)與P的對應函數,DW=f(P),f(‧)即為決策加權函數。一般DW值的導出乃採「確定等價法」(Certainly Equivalence,簡稱CE)。此法要求決策者對(P,A)等值出價為CE,則U(CE)=DW(A).U(A),可得DW(A)=U(CE)/U(A)。
以文找文
Empirical studies have shown that the probability weighting function is in an inverse S shape, which is concave for the low probability range and convex for the high probability range. Gonzalez and Wu (1999) proposed discriminability (involving the curvature of a function) and attractiveness (involving the elevation of a function) as two distinctive features of the weight function. This research aims to examine factors that influence these two independently psychological properties. We proposed that the degree of perceived ambiguity influences probability discriminability by diminishing sensitivity, and ambiguity attitude influences attractiveness that modulates the elevation of a weighting function. Applying these two features as criteria, Study 1 tested three different functional forms of decision weight proposed by Einhorn and Hogarth (1985), Kahn and Sarin (1988), and Lattimore, Baker, and Witte (1992). Results showed that these three models parameter values. By reparameterizing the function of Lattimore et al., we developed the Liou model which claracterizes decision weight with two parameters such that one parameter Θrepresents the curvature (discriminability) and the other Pc represents the elevation (attractiveness). Using parameter values of the Liou model as indicators, Study 2 manipulated the degree of perceived ambiguity by evidence weight (relative amount of missing information) in Experiment 1, and feeding of competence (expertness and novice of the decision task) in Experiment 2. Ambiguity attitudes were manipulated by gain or loss perspective in Experiment 1, and by seriousness of consequence in Experiment 2. results of these two experiments convergently supported the hypothesis that the degree of perceived ambiguity modulates probability discriminability which shapes the curvature of a decision weight function, and that the ambiguous attitude of decision makers influences attactiveness of the choice task which modifies elevation of the function. Based on empirical data of Study 2, we then tested curve fitness and analyzed the sensitivity of models discussed in Study 1. Results indicated that the Liou model fits best and is most sensitive in representing the decision weight function. Implication of these findings for psychological significance of decision weight function is discussed.
以文找文
期刊論文
1.
Frisch, Deborah、Baron, Jonathan(1988)。Ambiguity and rationality。Journal of Behavioral Decision Making,1,149-157。
2.
Einhorn, H. J.、Hogarth, R. M.(1986)。Judging probable cause。Psychological Bulletin,99(1),3-19。
3.
Camerer, C.、Weber, M.(1992)。Recent Developments in Modeling Preferences: Uncertainty and Ambiguity。Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,5(4),325-370。
4.
Heath, Chip、Tversky, Amos(1991)。Preference and Belief: Ambiguity and Competence in Choice under Uncertainty。Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,4(1),5-28。
5.
Kahneman, D.、Tversky, A.(1979)。Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk。Econometrica,47(2),263-291。
6.
Ellsberg, Daniel(1961)。Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms。The Quarterly Journal of Economics,75(4),643-669。
7.
Tversky, Amos、Kahneman, Daniel(1992)。Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty。Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,5(4),297-323。
8.
Hu, Li-tze、Bentler, Peter M.(1998)。Fit indices in covariance structure modeling: Sensitivity to underparamenterized model misspecification。Psychological Methods,3(4),424-453。
9.
Winkler, R.(1991)。Ambiguity, Probability, Preference, and Decision Analysis。Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,4(3),285-297。
10.
Einhorn, Hillel J.、Hogarth, Robin M.(1985)。Ambiguity and Uncertainty in Probabilistic Inference。Psychological Review,92,433-460。
11.
Curley, S. P.、Yates, F.(1989)。An empirical evaluation of descriptive models of ambiguity reactions in choice situations。Journal of Mathematical Psychology,33,397-427。
12.
Tversky, A.、Fox, C. R.(1995)。Weighing risk and uncertainty。Psychological Review,102(2),269-283。
13.
Birnbaum, M. H.、McIntosh, W. R.(1996)。Violations of branch independence in choices between gambles。Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,67,91-110。
14.
Bordly, R. F.、Hazen, G. B.(1991)。SSB and weighted linear utility as expected utility with suspicion。Management Science,37(4),396-409。
15.
Gardenfors, P.、Sahlin, N. E.(1982)。Unreliable probabilities, risk taking, and decision making。Synthese,53,361-386。
16.
Gilboa, I.(1987)。Expected utility with purely subjective non-additive probabilities。Journal of Mathematical Economics,16,65-88。
17.
Goldstein, W. M.、Einhorn, Hillel J.(1987)。Expression Theory and the Preference Reversal Phenomena。Psychological Review,94,236-254。
18.
Gonzalez, R.、Wu, George(1996)。Curvature of the probability weighting function。Management Science,42,1676-1690。
19.
Gonzalez, R.、Wu, George(1999)。On the shape of the probability weighting function。Cognitive Psychology,38。
20.
Hazen, G.(1987)。Subjective weighted linear utility。Theory and Decision,23,261-282。
21.
Hogarth, Robin M.(1989)。Ambiguity and Competitive Decision Making: Some Implications and Tests。Annals of Operations Research,19,31-50。
22.
Hogarth, Robin M.、Einhorn, Hillel J.(1990)。Venture Theory: A Model of Decision Weights。Management Science,36(7),780-803。
23.
Kahn, B.、Sarin, R. K.(1988)。Modeling ambiguity in decisions under uncertainty。Journal of Consumer Research,15,265-272。
24.
Keinan, G.(1994)。Effects of stress and tolerance of ambiguity on magical thinking。Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,64,48-55。
25.
Lattimore, P. M.、Baker, J. R.、Witte, A. D.(1992)。The influence of probability on risky choice。Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,17,377-400。
26.
Segal, U.(1987)。The Ellsberg paradox and risk aversion: An anticipated utility approach。International Economic Review,28,175-202。
27.
Schmeidler, D.(1989)。Subjective probability and expected utility without additivity。Econometrica,57,571-587。
28.
Tetlock, P. E.(1992)。The Impact of Accountability on Judgment and Choice: Toward a Social Contingency Model。Advances in Experimental Social Psychology,25,331-371。
29.
Tversky, A.、Wakker, P.(1995)。Risk attitudes and decision weights。Econometrica,6,1255-1280。
30.
Yates, F.、Zukowski, L.(1976)。Characterization of ambiguity in decision making。Behavioral Science,21,19-25。
研究報告
1.
Kilka, M.、Weber, M.(1998)。What determines the shape of the probability weighting function under uncertainty?。0。
學位論文
1.
劉世南(1998)。決策不確定效應分流機制之研究(博士論文)。國立臺灣大學。
延伸查詢
圖書
1.
Savage, Leonard J.(1954)。The Foundations of Statistics。New York, NY:Wiley。
2.
Fishburn, P. C.(1989)。Nonlinear preference and utility theory。Nonlinear preference and utility theory。Baltimore, MD。
3.
Green, D. M.、Swets, J. A.(1988)。Signal Detection Theory and Psychophysics。Signal Detection Theory and Psychophysics。New York, NY。
4.
Piaget, J. P.、Inhelder, B.(1975)。The origin of chance in children。The origin of chance in children。New York, NY。
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