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題名:入會承諾對臺灣男女勞動需求衝擊之動態一般均衡分析
書刊名:人口學刊
作者:林國榮 引用關係張靜貞 引用關係徐世勳
作者(外文):Lin, Kuo-jungChang, Ching-chengHsu, Shih-hsun
出版日期:2003
卷期:27
頁次:頁1-36
主題關鍵詞:世界貿易組織勞動需求預測可計算一般均衡World trade organizationWTOLabor demand forecastingComputable general equilibriumCGE
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(3) 博士論文(1) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:2
  • 共同引用共同引用:28
  • 點閱點閱:63
由於男、女勞動力先天上即存在有勞動特質的差異,且不同職位間,技術層級亦高低不同,使得男、女勞動力在不同工作職缺中,並無法完全移動,因此在評估WTO 架構下對我國所造成的就業結構調整的衝擊時,實有必要將勞動異質化的特徵,納入模型考量。本文整合多國與單國動態一般均衡分析體系,將勞動力區分為男、女性及專技或非專技人員,進行多部門 (multi-sectoral) 異質勞動需求預測,並同時探討隨著入會自由化承諾的逐年履行,對台灣男、女性勞動需求之衝擊。模擬結果顯示,由於加入WTO 後台灣服務業發展益形加速,而一、二級產業相形萎縮,使得非體力性操作之女性勞動力取得就業競爭上之相對優勢,2002-2006 年女性勞動需求擴張的程度 (累計增5 萬9 千人,平均年增率1.2%),較男性勞動需求擴張程度 (增3 萬4 千人,平均年增率0.5% ) 為多。而隨著低階技術之比較不利益產業的出走,不論男、女性,非專技人員的勞動需求成長幅度均低於專技人員需求增幅。
Taiwan has been admitted into World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2002. Changes in both industrial structure and employment structure are inevitable. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impacts of Taiwan's WTO accession on female-male labor demand. The method adopted in this paper is a two-step approach in the context of the dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis. The major finding from our quantitative assessment is that due to fast expansion in services sectors female labor demand increases dramatically with an annual rate of 1.2% during 2002-2006. In contrast, male labor demand is projected to increase with an annual rate of only 0.5% during the same period. The relocation of low-skilled and less competitive industries to foreign countries will lower the growth rate of labor demand for male, female as well as non-technical workers. For the younger people seeking employment opportunities, job-training programs should be carried out to help them transfer to the services sectors.
期刊論文
1.翁永和、許光中、徐世勳(20010600)。WTO架構下兩岸三地經貿受排除條款及直航之影響。人文及社會科學集刊,13(2),169-193。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.林國榮、徐世勳、張靜貞、李秉正、黃宗煌(20011200)。入會對臺灣農業就業衝擊之動態一般均衡分析。農業經濟叢刊,7(1),101-140。new window  延伸查詢new window
會議論文
1.林幸君、劉瑞文、徐世勳(1998)。兩岸加入 WTO 對總體經濟與產業結構變動之影響評估--全球貿易分析模型(GTAP)之應用。台灣經濟學會年會,(會議日期: 1998/12/19),81-113。  延伸查詢new window
研究報告
1.黃宗煌、李秉正、徐世勳、林師模、劉錦龍(1999)。溫室氣體減量成本效益分析--TAIGEM模型建構暨減量策略之經濟評估 (計畫編號:EPA-88-FA31-03-0006)。  延伸查詢new window
2.Dixon, Peter B.、Parmenter, B. R.、Rimmer, M. T.(1997)。MONASH: a dynamic, computable general equilibrium model of Australian economy。Australia:Monash University。  new window
3.成之約、胡念祖、李秉正(1995)。加入關稅暨貿易總協定對我國勞資關係影響之研究。  延伸查詢new window
4.汪義育(1996)。國內勞動力變遷及其對策之研究:GATT/WTO之勞工規範與我國因應之道。臺北市。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Dixon, P. B.、Parmenter, B. R.、Sutton, John、Vincent, D. P.(1982)。ORANI: A multisectoral model of the Australian economy。North-Holland。  new window
2.行政院經濟建設委員會(2000)。加入WTO對我國產業影響評估及因應對策總報告。臺北:行政院經濟建設委員會。  延伸查詢new window
3.(2002)。Global Trade, Assistance, and Production: The GTAP 5 Data Base。Global Trade, Assistance, and Production: The GTAP 5 Data Base。USA。  new window
4.Wang, Zhi(1997)。The Impact of China and Taiwan Joining the World Trade Organization on U. S. and World Agricultural Trade。The Impact of China and Taiwan Joining the World Trade Organization on U. S. and World Agricultural Trade。沒有紀錄。  new window
 
 
 
 
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