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題名：應用支援向量迴歸於國際旅遊需求之預測
書刊名：旅遊管理研究
作者：陳寬裕 引用關係／何嘉惠／蕭宏誠
作者(外文)：Chen, Kuan-yu／Ho, Chia-hui／Shiau, Horng-cherng
出版日期：2004
卷期：4:1
頁次：頁81-97
主題關鍵詞：支援向量機；支援向量迴歸；類神經網路；國際旅遊需求；Support vector machine；Support vector regression；Artificial neural network；International tourism demand
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:36
本研究將運用支援向量迴歸技術(Support Vector Regression,SVR)建構國際旅遊需求之預測模型。為了建構穩健、可信賴的預測模型，需慎選建構模型時所必需的參數σ2、C和ε。因此先使用格子點法(grid method)配合5-fold交叉驗證技術於訓練資料集上，以求得各種不同參數組合下的交叉驗證MAPE (mean absolute percentage error)，再藉由本研究所提出的，以支援向量的數量為主、評估交叉驗證MAPE為輔的參數選取機制，篩選出最佳的參數組合，最後再利用此參數組合建構實際的支援向量迴歸預測模型。此外研究中使用了敏感度分析技術(sensitivity analysis)，以證明不當的選取參數將使模型容易陷於過度擬合(over-fitting)或不足擬合(under-fitting)的危機中。
期刊論文
1.Uysal, M.、Crompton, J. L.(1984)。Determinants of demand for international tourist flow to Turkey。Tourism Management，15(4)，288-297。  new window
2.Kulendran, N.、King, Maxwell L.(1997)。Forecasting international quarterly tourist flows using error-correction and time-series models。International Journal of Forecasting，13(3)，319-327。  new window
3.Smeral, E.、Witt, S. F.、Witt, C. A.(1992)。Econometric forecasts: Tourism trends to 2000。Annals of Tourism Research，19(3)，450-466。  new window
4.Sharda, R.、Patil, R. B.(1992)。Connectionist approach to time series prediction: An empirical test。Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing，3(5)，317-323。  new window
5.González, Pilar、Moral, Paz(1995)。An Analysis of the International Tourism Demand in Spain。International Journal of Forecasting，11(2)，233-251。  new window
6.Vangegas, Manuel、Croes, Robertico(2000)。Evaluation of demand US tourists to Aruba。Annals of Tourism Research，27(4)，946-963。  new window
7.Kaastra, Iebeling、Boyd, Milton S.(1995)。Forecasting Futures Trading Volume Using Neural Networks。Journal of Futures Markets，15(8)，953-970。  new window
8.Cheng, W.、Wanger, L.、Lin, C. H.(1996)。Forecasting the 30-year US treasury bond with a system of neural networks。Journal of Computational Intelligence in Finance，1(4)，10-15。  new window
9.Chan, Y. M.(1993)。Forecasting tourism: A sine wave time series regression approach。Journal of Travel Research，32(2)，58-60。  new window
10.Chiang, W. C.、Urban, T. L.、Baldridge, G.(1996)。A neural network approach to mutual fund net asset value forecasting。Omega Int. J. Mgmt. Sci.，24(2)，205-215。  new window
11.Martin, Christine A.、Witt, S. F.(1989)。Forecasting tourism demand: A comparison of the accuracy of several quantitative methods。International Journal of Forecasting，5(1)，7-19。  new window
12.Law, R.(2000)。Back-propagation learning in improving the accuracy of neural network-based tourism demand forecasting。Tourism management，21(4)，331-340。  new window
13.Law, Rob、Au, Norman(1999)。A Neural Network Model to Forecast Japanese Demand for Travel to Hong Kong。Tourism Management，20(1)，89-97。  new window
14.Chu, Fong-Lin(1998)。Forecasting tourism: A combined approach。Tourism Management，19(6)，515-520。  new window
15.Pattie, Douglas C.、Snyder, John(1996)。Using a neural network to forecast visitor behavior。Annals of Tourism Research，23(1)，151-164。  new window
16.Sheldon, Pauline J.、Var, Turgut(1985)。Tourism Forecasting: A Review of Empirical Research。Journal of Forecasting，4(2)，183-195。  new window
17.Tay, Francis E. H.、Cao, Lijuan(2001)。Financial Forecasting Using Support Vector Machines。Neural Computing & Application，10，184-192。  new window
18.Tay, Francis E. H.、Cao, Lijuan(2001)。Application of Support Vector Machines in Financial Time Series Forecasting。Omega: The International Journal of Management Science，29(4)，309-317。  new window
會議論文
1.Schmidt, M.(1996)。Identifying speaker with support vector networks。The meeting of the 28th Symposium on the Interface (INTERFACE-96)。Sydney。  new window
研究報告
1.Joachim, T.(1996)。Text categorization with support vector machines: Learning with many relevant features。  new window
2.Duan, K.、Keerthi, S.、Poo, A.(2001)。Evaluation of simple performance measures for tuning SVM hyperparameters。Department of Mechanical Engineering, National University of Singapore。  new window
3.Chang, C. C.、Lin, C. J.(2001)。LIBSVM: a library for support vector machines。Department of Computer Science and Information Engineering, Nation Taiwan University。  new window
圖書
1.Lewis, Colin D.(1982)。International and Business Forecasting Methods。London：Butterworths。  new window
2.Witt, S. F.、Witt, C. A.(1992)。Modeling and Forecasting Demand in Tourism。London：Academic Press。  new window
3.Van, E.、Robert, J.(1997)。The application of neural networks in the forecasting of share price。Haymarket, VA：Finance & Technology Publishing。  new window
4.Haykin, S.(1999)。Neural Networks: A Comprehensive Foundation。Englewood, New Jersey：Prentice-Hall。  new window
5.Vapnik, V. N.(1995)。The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory。Springer-Verlag。  new window
6.Smola, A. J.(1998)。Learning with kernels。Birlinghoven：GMD。  new window
圖書論文
1.Vapnik, V. N.、Golowich, S.、Smola, A.(1997)。Support Vector Method for Function Approximation, Regression Estimation, and Signal Processing。Neural Information Processing Systems。Cambridge, MA：MIT Press。  new window
 
 
 
 
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