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題名:非時變模糊時間數列預測模式之研究
書刊名:管理研究學報
作者:劉浩天鍾順傳劉書助 引用關係
作者(外文):Liu, H. T.Chung, S. C.Liu, S. C.
出版日期:2004
卷期:4:2
頁次:頁169-189
主題關鍵詞:非時變模糊時間數列預測模式模糊數模糊時間數列預測專家判斷Time-invariant fuzzy time series forecasting modelsFuzzy numberFuzzy time series forecasting methodExperts' judgment
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:2
  • 點閱點閱:15
模糊時間數列預測模型普遍存在兩項缺點:(1)單一預測值,非區間侓,無法提供決策者更多相關資訊;(2)當突發狀況發生時,歷史資料無法即時反應,造成預測誤差。針對上述問題,本文發展一綜合型非時變模糊時間數列預測模式,結合模糊時間數列預測與專家判斷,以模糊預測值(模糊數)提供決策者相關訊息。本文先以一範例測試,並與其他模糊預測模式比較,結果顯示;本模型預測結果比其他預測模式較佳,再以楠梓加工區被動元件製造公司產品需求預測實例,說明植模式之實用性。
Various fuzzy time-series forecasting models have been proposed. However, most of them have the following problems: (1) the forecasting values are a single value; (2) When unexpected conditions happen, the historical data can not be used to predict the situations properly. In order to solve the problems mentioned above, this paper proposes an integrated time-invariant fuzzy time series forecasting model that combines fuzzy time series forecasting method and experts’ judgment to predict the time series. The fuzzy forecasting values (fuzzy number) provide decision makers useful information. One example is used to validate the accuracy of the proposed model. The results indicate the proposed model is better than the other existing models. At last, the proposed model is implemented in a real-word case.
期刊論文
1.Hwang, J. R.、Chen, Shyi-Ming、Lee, Chia-Hoang(1998)。Handling forecasting problems using fuzzy time series。Fuzzy Sets and Systems,100(1-3),217-228。  new window
2.吳柏林、張鈿富、廖敏治(19961000)。模糊時間數列與臺灣地區中學教師人數需求之預測。國立政治大學學報,73(下),287-312。  延伸查詢new window
3.Chen, S. M.、Hwang, J. R.(2000)。Temperature prediction using fuzzy time series。IEEE Transactions on System, Man and Cybernetics,-Part B: Cybernetics,30(2),263-275。  new window
4.Song, Q.、Chissom, B. S.(1993)。Forecasting enrollments with fuzzy time series。Fuzzy Sets and Systems,54(1),1-9。  new window
5.Song, Q.、Chisson, B. S.(1993)。Fuzzy time series and its models。Fuzzy Sets and Systems,54(3),269-277。  new window
6.Song, Q.、Chissom, B. S.(1994)。Forecasting Enrollments with Fuzzy Time Series。Fuzzy Sets and Systems,62(1),1-8。  new window
7.Chen, S. M.(1996)。Forecasting Enrollments Based on Fuzzy Time Series。Fuzzy Sets and Systems,81(3),311-319。  new window
8.Huarng, K. H.(2001)。Effective Lengths of Intervals to Improve Forecasting in Fuzzy Time Series。Fuzzy Sets and Systems,123(3),387-394。  new window
會議論文
1.Huarng, K. H.(2000)。The n-th Forecasting in Fuzzy Time Series。The Eighth Conference for Fuzzy Theory and Applications,12-15。  new window
學位論文
1.顏玉孟(1999)。以引導式模糊時間數列來預測台灣股價加權指數(碩士論文)。朝陽大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.廖敏治(1998)。模糊時間數列的階次認定、模式建構及預測(博士論文)。國立政治大學。new window  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.阮亨中、吳柏林(2000)。模糊數學與統計應用。俊傑書局。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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