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題名:臺股期貨價格與交易量、到期期間波動反應之研究--GJR-GARCH(1,1)模型之應用
書刊名:臺灣銀行季刊
作者:徐清俊王國強
出版日期:2005
卷期:56:2
頁次:頁230-244
主題關鍵詞:價格波動到期期間GJR-CARCH(1,1)模型
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(3) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:3
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:2
本研究乃針對國內相關期貨市場(臺期指、摩臺指、電子指及金融指等)之價格波動與到期期間、交易量之關聯性作實證研究,期能為券商承做避險時提供一參考依據。GJR-GARCH(1,1)模型作之實證結論:(1)國內期貨市場在價格波上存在有波動群聚的現象,且報酬的不對稱性加深了此一波動,表示期貨市場在空頭時期所面臨的風險較高;(2)價格波動將隨到期期間之接近而有下降的赹勢,並不符合Samuelson(1965)所提出之「到期日效效果假說」;(3)期貨市場之交易量與價格波動國現正向關係,符合Clark(1973)所提出的混合分配假說;(4)研究發現國內期貨市場(臺摩指、電子指金融指),到期期間比交易量更能作為解釋價格波動的原因,而摩臺指與國外期貨市場則與此現象相反,其原因在於國人易將到期日視為雙方交易之公開且重要訊息,而不致有提前平倉之現象;(5)期貨交易量與到期期間呈現反向因果關係,表示隨著到期日之接交易量有逐漸放大之情形。
期刊論文
1.Clark, P. K.(1973)。A subbordinated stochastic process model with finite variance for speculate price。Econometrica,41(2),135-155。  new window
2.Board, J. L. G.、Sutcliffe, C. M. S.(1990)。Information, volatility, volume and maturity: an investigation of stock index futures。Review of Futures Markets,19(3),533-549。  new window
3.Engle, R. F.、Lilien, D. M.、Robins, R. P.(1987)。Estimating Time-Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The ARCH-M Model。Econometrica,55,391-407。  new window
4.Samuelson, P. A.(1965)。Proof that properly anticipated prices fluctuate randomly。Industrial Management Review,6,41-49。  new window
5.Abhyankar, A. H.(1995)。Return and Volatility Dynamics in the FTSE 100 Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Markets。Journal of Futures Markets,15(4),457-488。  new window
6.Copeland, T. E.(1976)。A Model of Asset Trading Under the Assumption of Sequential Arrival。Journal of Finance,31(1),1149-1168。  new window
7.Schwert, G. William(1989)。Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?。Journal of Finance,44(5),1115-1153。  new window
8.Dickey, David A.、Fuller, Wayne A.(1981)。Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root。Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society,49(4),1057-1072。  new window
9.Engle, Robert F.、Bollerslev, Tim(1986)。Modelling the Persistence of Conditional Variances。Econometric Reviews,5(1),1-50。  new window
10.Bollerslev, Tim(1986)。Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity。Journal of Econometrics,31(3),307-327。  new window
11.Campbell, John Y.、Hentschel, Ludger(1992)。No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns。Journal of Financial Economics,31(3),281-318。  new window
12.Engle, Robert F.(1982)。Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation。Econometrica,50(4),987-1008。  new window
13.Glosten, Lawrence R.、Jagannathan, Ravi、Runkle, David E.(1993)。On the Relation Between the Expected Value and the Volatility on the Nominal Excess Returns on Stocks。Journal of Finance,48(5),1779-1801。  new window
會議論文
1.Black, F.(1976)。Studies of Stock, Price Volatility Changes。The annual meeting of the American Statistical Association,177-181。  new window
學位論文
1.林祺傑(1995)。期貨價格波動與交易量之研究(碩士論文)。國立臺灣科技大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.陳逸謙(1999)。股價指數期貨的交易量、價格波動與到期期間之關係(碩士論文)。國立臺灣科技大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.陳嬿如(1997)。股價指數期貨價格波動及基差波動與到期日間關係之探討(碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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