全球海運業預期未來將有船員短缺問題，尤其是甲級船員。值基於此，本研究主要目的在於探討船員人力資源短缺現象發生的可能性。我們首將分析船員供給面，進而估計船員未來需求。此外，並將探討各地區甲級船員、乙級船員的消長趨勢，以作為臺灣當局制定未來海運政策及改善我國船員雇用之參考。 近期全球的經濟及商業活動發展，的確使得全球船員人力資源重組，並改變船員雇用結構。值得關切的是，近年來已開發國家的船員人數快速減少，這些任職中的已開發國家船員年齡亦逐年攀高。如果缺乏適當的雇用政策與遞補措施，船公司在縮減人事成本的考量下，更將持續擴增地雇用開發中國家的船員。未來可預期的是，開發中國家籍甲級船員或許將取代臺灣年齡漸增的甲級船員。但是展望航運景氣的持續，開發中國家甲級船員之供給亦面臨新的問題，供需失衡是否意味著雇用低廉船員的時代已結束，採取積極培育本國籍高級船員，的確值得政府及業者進一步深思與規劃。

　　　　　There is a speculation of a forthcoming shortage of seafarers in the shipping industry, specifically for officers. What this research interested is whether such a shortage will in fact occur by the time. We first begin with an analysis of the supply dimension followed by estimates of seafarer demand. Then, we introduce the regional trends and divisions between senior officers, junior officers and ratings. Finally, this research tries to provide some policy recommendations to decision makers for the reason to improve the recruitment at the traditional shipping industry in Taiwan. The developments in economic and commercial activities have restructured the international seafaring labor force and altered the structure of seafarer employment. Because of a considerable reduction in recruitment and retention, there has been a strict decline in the number of seafarers coming from developed countries these years. The age of seafarers coming from developed countries has also become older. So, it now lack of adequate seafarers from developed countries, couple with a desire to reduce labor unit costs for shipping companies, there should be an increasing demand for seafarers from developing countries around the world. Over the coming years we would expect to see a larger number of senior officers from the developing countries to replace the aging Taiwanese seafarers. But the shipping industry continues to prosper these years, developed countries and Taiwan will face the problem of officer shortage in the mean time. Is it means that the era of cheap seafarers providing has ended? Both shipping companies and government need to deliberate seriously whether they should train more Taiwanese officers in the near future to solve this shortage problem.