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題名：季節性ARIMA模型預測國人出國旅遊人數
書刊名：醒吾學報
作者：閔辰華 引用關係
作者(外文)：Min, Jennifer
出版日期：2001
卷期：24
頁次：頁505-540
主題關鍵詞：觀光事業；時間數列；出國旅遊；預測；Tourism industry；Time series；Outbound departure；Forecast
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
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臺灣自從民國六十八年政府開放國民出國觀光以來，出國人數成長快速，加之國民所得的增加，生活水準的提高匯存底的豐裕，出國旅遊已為風氣，然而，觀光事業具備有不可儲存、易逝等特性，所以準確地需測旅斿人數，對於觀光的發展和投資就顯的格外地重要。本研究首先介紹國人出國旅遊發展之各階段；且根據不同出國旅遊之市場作一分析；並以Box-Jenkins之單變量時間數列建構一國人出國旅遊人數之預測模型。所建立的季節性ARIMA模型，以提供相關觀光事業單位作一參考。
Following the easing in 1979 of government restrictions on outbound tourism by citizens of the ROC, sable increasing has been recorded in outbound tourism. Moreover, overseas travel has become popular due to increased per capita incomes, and enhanced standard of living and plentiful foreign exchange reserves. Because of the perishable nature of the tourism industry, accurate tourism forecast is crucial to the planning of government bodies and private sectors for tourism development efforts and investments, and service delivery. In this study, the four stages are reviewed and introduced, and the different outbound markets are analyzed. Furthermore, the quantitative technique of predicting (Box-Jenkins univariate time series) is employed to forecast Taiwanese outbound departures. In addition, a seasonal ARIMA model built in the research can serve as a reference for the tourism industry.
期刊論文
1.Bailey, M.(1992)。Outbound markets: Hong Kong and Taiwan outbound。EIU Travel & Tourism Analyst，1，55-76。  new window
2.Chan, Y, M.(1993)。Forecasting tourism: A sine wave time series regression approach。Journal of Travel Research，32(2)，58-60。  new window
3.Ching, F.(199507)。China sets rules for Taiwan。Far Eastern Economic Review，38。  new window
4.Choy, D. J.(1984)。Forecasting tourism revisited。Tourism Management，5(3)，171-176。  new window
5.Chu, F. L.(1998)。Forecasting tourist arrivals: Nonlinear sine wave or ARIMA?。Journal of Travel Research，36(3)，79-84。  new window
6.Coshall, J.(2000)。Spectral analysis of international tourism flows。Annals of Tourism Research，27(3)，577-589。  new window
7.Eadington, W. R.、Redman, M.(1991)。Economics and tourism。Annuals of Tourism Research，18(1)，41-56。  new window
8.Gonzalez, P.(1996)。Analysis of tourism trends in Spain。Annuals of Tourism Research，23(4)，739-754。  new window
9.Hobson, P.、Ko, G.(1994)。Tourism and politics: the implications of the change in sovereignty on the future development of Hong Kong's tourism industry。Journal of Travel Research，32(4)，2-8。  new window
10.Huang, C. T.、Yung, C. Y.、Huang, J. H.(1996)。Trends in outbound tourism from Taiwan。Tourism Management，17(3)，223-228。  new window
11.Law, R.(2000)。Back-propagation learning in improving the accuracy of neural network-based tourism demand forecasting。Tourism Management，21(4)，331-340。  new window
12.Lee, Choong-Ki、Var, Turgut、Blaine, Thomas W.(1996)。Determinants of inbound tourist expenditures。Annals of Tourism Research，23(3)，527-542。  new window
13.Sheldon, P. J.(1993)。Forecasting tourism: Expenditures versus arrivals。Journal of Travel Research，32(1)，13-20。  new window
14.Wong, K. F.(1997)。The relevance of business cycles in forecasting international tourist arrivals。Tourism Management，18(8)，581-586。  new window
15.Hillmer, S. C.、Tiao, G. C.(1979)。Likelihood Function of Stationary Multiple Autoregressive Moving Average Models。Journal of the American Statistical Association，74(367)，652-660。  new window
16.Witt, S. F.、Witt, Christine A.(1995)。Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research。International Journal of Forecasting，11(3)，447-475。  new window
17.Law, Rob、Au, Norman(1999)。A Neural Network Model to Forecast Japanese Demand for Travel to Hong Kong。Tourism Management，20(1)，89-97。  new window
18.Chu, Fong-Lin(1998)。Forecasting tourism: A combined approach。Tourism Management，19(6)，515-520。  new window
19.Pattie, Douglas C.、Snyder, John(1996)。Using a neural network to forecast visitor behavior。Annals of Tourism Research，23(1)，151-164。  new window
20.Qu, H.、Lam, S.(1997)。A travel demand model for Mainland Chinese tourists to Hong Kong。Tourism Management，18(8)，593-597。  new window
21.Witt, S. F.、Martin, C. A.(1989)。Accuracy of Econometric Forecasts of Tourism。Annals of Tourism Research，16，407-428。  new window
研究報告
1.Canadian Government Office of Tourism(1977)。Methodology for short-term forecasts of tourism flows: Research report no. 4。Ottawa：Canadian Government, Office of Tourism。  new window
2.WTO(2000)。Report of World Tourism Organization。  new window
圖書
1.Hong Kong Tourism Association(1994)。A Statistical Review of Tourism。  new window
2.Var, T., Lee, C. K.(199003)。Tourism forecasting: state-of-the-art techniques from proceedings of 1990 outdoor recreation trends symposium III。Indianapolis：Indiana University。  new window
3.Makridakis, S.、Wheelwright, S. C.(1989)。Forecasting methods for management。New York：John Wiley。  new window
4.Pankratz, A.(1983)。Forecasting with univariate Box-Jenkins models: Concepts and cases。New York：John Wiley。  new window
5.Tourism Bureau(2000)。1999 annual report on tourism。Taipei：Tourism Bureau。  new window
6.Witt, S. F.、Witt, C. A.(1992)。Modelling and forecasting demand in tourism。London：Academic press。  new window
7.Economist(199307)。Feeding mother。  new window
其他
1.Moore, P.(19930626)。Architect of a hotel empire。  new window
2.Ocampo, R.(1992)。HK in danger of losing tourists from Taiwan。  new window
 
 
 
 
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