中央政府財政狀況正趨緊縮，故政府近年來採用多項管制措施以有效運用人力，然消防機關在響應政府樽節人事經費支出、大富縮減人力的原則下，現階段的消防人力是否足夠勝任日漸擴增的任務？故消防機關的人力規劃，為現代人事管理的重要課題，其可預估機關組織未來所需人力，並善用人力資源，若再加以完善之培訓，更能有效運用人力，藉以發揮組織功能的運作。 本文主要在研究消防機關的人力規劃，利用馬可夫模式建立人力供需情形，藉由資料的分析，了解晉升、退休、離職、新進的機率，精確推算消防人員各階狀態轉機率，來預測在未來的10年內，消防人員供給人數的變化，是否可達到消防人力需求，進而提供消防機關有用的人力規貆資訊，作為消防機關制訂人事政策之參考。

The government of finance is scanty, so the government adopts controlling measures in order to keep manpower effectively in recent years. However, under this situation, are there enough firefighters to fulfill the ever-increasing tasks? Manpower planning is the important subject of modern personnel management. The every organization needs to estimate the future manpower situation. Manpower planning can apply manpower resources, give perfect training, and use manpower effectively in order to develop the function operation of the organization. This study mainly studies the manpower planning of fire department, and tries to build up manpower requirement model by Markov Model. when we analyse the information about promotion, retirement, and novice, the modal will provide fire manpower planning helpfully information. Those information is accurate to calculate shift of all steps state about firefighters. They predict that if the change of firefighters can supplies reach the demand manpower within 10 years in the future. This study expects to provide a guideline to fire department of the establishment of personnel policies.