The Influence of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Taiwan's Tourism Industry: The Case of Outbound Departures_

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題名：	The Influence of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Taiwan's Tourism Industry: The Case of Outbound Departures
書刊名：	醒吾學報
作者：	閔辰華
作者(外文)：	Min, Jennifer C. H.
出版日期：	2006
卷期：	31
頁次：	頁25-49
主題關鍵詞：	爆發；出國觀光業；衝擊；預測；時間數列；Outbreak；Outbound tourism industry；Impact；Forecast；Time series
原始連結：	連回原系統網址
相關次數：	被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0) 排除自我引用:0 共同引用:0 點閱:23

嚴重急性呼吸道症候群(SARS)的爆發造成臺灣近年來最大的災害，其中尤以觀光業所受之衝擊最為嚴重。臺灣自從民國七十六年政府解除多項開放國民出國觀光之限制以來，出國人數成長快速，加以國民所得增加，生活水準提高，外匯存低豐裕，出國旅遊已蔚為風氣。因此，本研究之研究目的欲探討自SARS爆發一年以來，臺灣出國觀光業所受之衝擊及其恢復之狀況。本研究以時間數最建立國人出國觀光之Box-Jenkins SARIMA預測模型，並預測在SARS爆發後之出國旅遊人數，預測值再與實際值進行比較以分析其所受之影響。研究結果顯示，在SARS爆發期間，臺灣出國觀光業遭受到嚴重之衝擊，爾後經過政府和觀光業者之努力，已有恢復之趨勢。研究結果實際反映一件真實災難事件後，出國觀光人數實際變化情形，並對於觀光業及後續研究亦提出相關之建議。

以文找文

The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak caused the most catastrophic disaster in Taiwan’s recent past, and the greatest effects were felt instantly in the tourism industry. Following the easing in 1987 of government restrictions toward traveling abroad by citizens of the Roc, stable increasing has been recorded in outbound tourism. Furthermore, overseas travel has become popular due to increased per capita incomes, and enhanced standard of living and plentiful foreign exchange reserves. Thus, the purpose of this study is to assess the impact and recovery of the epidemic in Taiwan’s outbound tourism industry. This research establishes on model for outbound tourism demand to predict the volume of tourist departures during and following the outbreak. The forecasts are based on the time series of Box-Jenkins SARIMA models, which are then compared with the actual volume of tourist departures to analyze the impact. The empirical results indicate Taiwan’s outbound tourism industry was devastated brutally by this disease during the outbreak. After the Taiwan government and tourism practitioners’ aggressive efforts, outbound tourists continued to progress energetically. The results will likely shed more light on how the numbers of outbound departures are influenced by a real-life hazard; furthermore, implications and recommendations are provided to the tourism authorities, and future research possibilities are also devoted.

以文找文

期刊論文
1.	Chan, Y. M.(1993)。Forecasting tourism: A sine wave time series regression approach。Journal of Travel Research，32(2)，58-60。
2.	Chien, G. C. L.、Law. R.(2003)。The impact of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome on hotels: A case study of Hong Kong。International Journal of Hospitality Management，22(3)，327-332。
3.	Chu, F. L.(2004)。Forecasting tourism demand: A cubic polynomial approach。Tourism Management，25(2)，209-218。
4.	Dalrymple, K.、Greenidge, K.(1999)。Forecasting arrivals to Barbados。Annals of Tourism Research，26(1)，188-191。
5.	Goh, C.、Law, R.(2002)。Modeling and forecasting tourism demand for arrivals with stochastic nonstationary seasonality and intervention。Tourism Management，23(5)，499-510。
6.	Goh, C.、Law, R.(2003)。Incorporating the rough sets theory into travel demand analysis。Tourism Management，24(5)，511-517。
7.	Hamdi, R.(2003)。Region battles to get tourists back。Media，22。
8.	Han, Z.、Durbarry, R.、Sinclair, M. T.(2006)。Modelling US tourism demand for European destination。Tourism Management，27(1)，1-10。
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11.	Lim, C.、McAleer, M.(2002)。Forecasting tourist arrivals。Annals of Tourism Research，28(4)，965-977。
12.	Morley, C. L.(1991)。Modeling international tourism demand: Model specification and structure。Journal of Travel Research，30(1)，40-44。
13.	Morley, C. L.(1993)。Forecasting tourism demand using extrapolative time series methods。The Journal of Tourism Studies，4(1)，19-25。
14.	Turner, L. W.、Kulendran, N.、Fernando, H.(1997)。Univariate modelling using periodic and non-periodic analysis: Inbound tourism to Japan, Australia and New Zealand compared。Tourism Economics，3(1)，39-56。
15.	Turner, L. W.、Kulendran, N.、Pergat, V.(1995)。Forecasting New Zealand tourism demand with disaggregated data。Tourism Economics，1(1)，51-69。
16.	Wong, K. F.(1997)。The relevance of business cycles in forecasting international tourist arrivals。Tourism Management，18(8)，581-586。
17.	Athiyaman, A.、Robertson, R. W.(1992)。Time series forecasting techniques: short-term planning in tourism。International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management，4(4)，8-11。
18.	Dharmaratne, G. S.(1995)。Forecasting tourist arrivals in Barbados。Annals of Tourism Research，22(4)，804-818。
19.	Gonzalez, P.、Moral, P.(1996)。Analysis of tourism trends in Spain。Annuals of Tourism Research，23(4)，739-754。
20.	Sheldon, P. J.(1993)。Forecasting tourism: Expenditures versus arrivals。Journal of Travel Research，32(1)，13-20。
21.	Hillmer, S. C.、Tiao, G. C.(1979)。Likelihood Function of Stationary Multiple Autoregressive Moving Average Models。Journal of the American Statistical Association，74(367)，652-660。
22.	Witt, S. F.、Witt, Christine A.(1995)。Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research。International Journal of Forecasting，11(3)，447-475。
23.	Law, Rob、Au, Norman(1999)。A Neural Network Model to Forecast Japanese Demand for Travel to Hong Kong。Tourism Management，20(1)，89-97。
24.	Pattie, Douglas C.、Snyder, John(1996)。Using a neural network to forecast visitor behavior。Annals of Tourism Research，23(1)，151-164。
25.	Box, G. E. P.、Tiao, G. C.(1975)。Intervention analysis with applications to economic and environmental problems。Journal of the American Statistical Association，70(349)，70-79。

研究報告
1.	Canadian Government Office of Tourism(1977)。Methodology for short-term forecasts of tourism flows: Research report no. 4。Ottawa：Canadian Government, Office of Tourism。

圖書
1.	International Monetary Fund(2002)。Economic Outlook: The Global Economy after September 11。International Monetary Fund。
2.	Kwong, K. S.(1997)。Tourism and the Hong Kong Economy。Hong Kong：city University of Hong Kong Press。
3.	Pankratz, A.(1983)。Forecasting with univariate Box-Jenkins models: Concepts and cases。New York：John Wiley。
4.	Tourism Bureau(2003)。2002 Annual report on tourism。Taipei：Tourism Bureau。
5.	Box, G. E. P.、Jenkins, G. M.、Reinsel, G. C.(1976)。Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control。San Francisco：Holden-Day。

其他
1.	Tourism Bureau(2003)。The status of tourism industry influenced by SARS，http://anonymousc.ws/cgi-bin/anon-www.cgi/http:/202.39.225.133/sars/c04.htm。
2.	World Health Organization(2002)。Summary table of SARS cases by county, November 1, 2002 -August 7，http://www.who.int/csr/sars/countrv/2003_08_15/en/， 2003/08/15。
3.	WHO(2003)。Weekly epidemiological record，http://www.who.int/wer/2003/wer7837/en/， 2003/09/12。
4.	WHO(2003)。World Health Organization issues emergency travel advisory，http://www.who.int/csr/sars/archive/2003_03_15/en/， 2003/03/15。
5.	WHO(2003)。Taiwan, China: Transmission interrupted in last outbreak area，http://www.who,int/csr/don/2003_07_05/en/， 2003/07/05。

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