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外文摘要
引文資料
題名:
臺股市場波動性指標之建構、資訊內涵與交易策略
書刊名:
管理與系統
作者:
謝文良
/
李進生
/
袁淑芳
作者(外文):
Hsieh, G. Wen-liang
/
Lee, Chin-shen
/
Yuan, Shu-fang
出版日期:
2006
卷期:
13:4
頁次:
頁471-497
主題關鍵詞:
波動度指標
;
隱含波動度
;
擇時交易
;
VXO
;
Volatility index
;
Implied volatility
;
Timing strategy
原始連結:
連回原系統網址
相關次數:
被引用次數:期刊(
2
) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
排除自我引用:
2
共同引用:0
點閱:31
本文參考CBOE計算VXO的模式,以台股選擇權的隱含波動度建構台灣市場的波動度指標。研究發現台灣市場買權與賣權的隱含波動度差異頗大,且具有不同的資訊內涵,其中賣權的隱含波動度與指數報酬率的相關性較大,對指數變化的敏感度也較高,是較能反映台灣市場風險的波動度指標。本文所建立的賣權波動度指標IVP與同期的指數報酬率呈現顯著的負相關,顯示其具備反映市場恐慌情緒的能力。分量迴歸的結果顯示,當賣權波動度指標出現極端高值時,短期(1-2日)內台股現貨市場會發生追賣的動能交易,但自第5個交易日起則出現反向操作交易。將上述資訊內涵應用於擇時交易策略,其績效表現在本文研究期間內超越買進持有的基本策略。
以文找文
This article proposes a procedure to build up the volatility index for the Taiwan stock markets. Our approach resembles the CBOE's VXO which weights the implied volatilities of various index options, however, separating the put implied volatility and the call implied volatility. Evidence shows that the put implied volatility is more closely linked to the spot index and is more sensitive to the change of spot index than the call volatility. The volatility index using only put options (IVP) exhibits negative correlation to the spot index return, reflecting the market sentiment of fear. We find that the extremely high IVP is often followed by momentum trading (selling) in day 1 and day 2, and subsequent contrarian trading (buying) from day 5 to day 9. A market timing strategy based on the information contents of put volatility index outperforms the buy-and-hold strategy. Results suggest that the weighted put implied volatility is an appropriate sentiment measure of Taiwan spot market.
以文找文
期刊論文
1.
Blair, Bevan、Poon, Ser-Huang、Taylor, Stephen J.(2001)。Forecasting S&P 100 Volatility: The Incremental Information Content of Implied Volatilities and High-frequency Index Returns。Journal of Econometrics,105,5-26。
2.
Poteshman, Allen M.(2006)。Unusual Option Market Activity and the Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001。Journal of Business,79,1703-1726。
3.
Whaley, R. E.(1986)。Valuation of American futures options: Theory and Empirical Tests。Journal of Finance,41,127-150。
4.
Day, T. E.、Lewis, C. M.(1988)。The Behavior of the Volatility Implicit in the Prices of Stock Index Options。Journal of Financial Economics,22(1),103-122。
5.
Latane, H.、Rendleman, R.(1976)。Standard Deviations of Stock Price Ratios Implied in Optimal Prices。The Journal of Finance,31,369-381。
6.
Beckers, S.(1981)。Standard Deviations Implied in Option Prices as Predictors of Future Stock Price Variability。Journal of Banking and Finance,5(3),363-382。
7.
Gwilym, O. A.(2001)。Forecasting Volatility for Options Pricing for the U.K. Stock Market。Journal of Financial Management and Analysis,14(2),55-62。
8.
Fleming, Jeff、Ostdiek, Barbara、Whaley, Robert E.(1995)。Predicting Stock Market Volatility: A New Measure。Journal of Futures Markets,15(3),265-302。
9.
Harvey, C. R.、Whaley, R. E.(1992)。Market Volatility Prediction and the Efficiency of S&P 100 Index Options Market。Journal of Financial Economics,31(1),43-73。
10.
Low, Cheekiat(2004)。The Fear and Exuberance from Implied Volatility of S&P 100 Index Options。Journal of Business,77(3),527-546。
11.
Whaley, R. E.(1993)。Derivatives on Market Volatility: Hedging Tools Long Overdue。The Journal of Derivatives,1(1),71-84。
12.
Traub, H. D.、Ferreira, L.、Mcardle, M.、Antognelli, M.(2000)。Fear and Greed in Global Asset Allocation。Journal of Investing,9(1),27-31。
13.
Fleming, Jeff(1998)。The Quality of Market Volatility Forecasts Implied by S&P 100 Index Option Prices。Journal of Empirical Finance,5(4),317-345。
14.
Jorion, P.(1995)。Predicting Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market。Journal of Finance,50(2),507-528。
15.
Schwert, G. William(1990)。Stock Volatility and the Crash of '87。Review of Financial Studies,3(1),77-102。
16.
Whaley, R. E.(20000300)。The Investor Fear Gauge。Journal of Portfolio Management,26(3),12-17。
17.
Braun, P. A.、Nelson, D. B.、Sunier, A. M.(1995)。Good News, Bad News, Volatility, and Betas。Journal of Finance,50(5),1575-1603。
18.
Chiras, Donald P.、Manaster, Steven(1978)。The Information Content of Option Prices and a Test of Market Efficiency。Journal of Financial Economics,6(2/3),213-234。
19.
Day, Theodore E.、Lewis, Craig M.(1992)。Stock Market Volatility and the Information Content of Stock Index Options。Journal of Econometrics,52(1/2),267-287。
20.
Merton, Robert C.(1973)。Theory of Rational Option Pricing。Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science,4(1),141-183。
21.
Markowitz, Harry M.(1952)。Portfolio Selection。The Journal of Finance,7(1),77-91。
22.
Choi, Seungmook、Wohar, Mark E.(1992)。Implied Volatility in Options Markets and Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Stock Markets。Financial Review,27(4),503-530。
23.
Sharpe, William F.(1964)。Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk。The Journal of Finance,19(3),425-442。
24.
Cox, John C.、Ross, Stephen A.(1976)。The Valuation of Options for Alternative Stochastic Processes。Journal of Financial Economics,3(1/2),145-166。
25.
Pindyck, Robert S.(1984)。Risk, Inflation, And The Stock Market。American Economic Review,74,334-351。
26.
Poterba, J. M.、Summers, L. H.(1986)。The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations。The American Economic Review,76,1141-1151。
27.
Connors, L.(1999)。A Volatile Idea。Futures,July,36-37。
28.
Connors, L.(1999)。Extreme Volatility Trading。Futures,Aug.,38-39。
29.
Connors, L.(2002)。Timing Your S&P Trades with VXO。Futures,Jun.,46-47。
30.
Gastineau, G.(1977)。An Index of Listed Option Premiums。Financial Analysts Journal,30,70-75。
31.
Tan, K.(2002)。Fixated on the VIX: Soaring Volatility Mean Fear - And Opportunity。Barron's。
32.
Xu, X.、Taylor, S.(1995)。Conditional Volatility and the Informational Efficiency of the PHLX Currency Options Market。Journal of Banking & Finance,19,803-821。
33.
Zhu, Y.、Avellaneda, M.(1998)。A Risk-neutral Volatility Model。International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance,1,289-310。
研究報告
1.
Aboura, S.、Villa, C.(2003)。International Market Volatility Indexed - A Study on VX1, VDAX, and VIX。0。
2.
Collver, C.(2003)。Technically, Some Measures of Implied Volatility Do Provide Market Timing Signals。0。
3.
Engle, R.、Rosenberg, J.(1998)。Testing the Volatility Term Structure Using Option Hedging Criteria。San Diego, CA。
4.
Giot, P.(2002)。Implied Volatility Indices as Leading Indicators of Stock Index Returns。CORE, University of Leuvain。
5.
Giot, P.(2003)。The Asian Financial Crisis: the Start of a Regime Switch in Volatility。0。
圖書
1.
Cox, J.、Rubinstein, M.(1985)。Options Markets。Options Markets。Englewood Cliffs, NJ:Prentice-Hall, Inc.。
2.
Connors, L.(1998)。Connors on Advanced Trading Strategies。Connors on Advanced Trading Strategies。0。
3.
Connors, L.、Che, G.(2001)。Trading Connors VIX Reversals。Trading Connors VIX Reversals。0。
其他
1.
Summa, J.(2002)。Forecasting Market Direction with Put/Call Ratios,0。
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