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題名:南方黑鮪全球總可捕量管理程序臺灣決策原則之評估
書刊名:臺灣經濟預測與政策
作者:孫金華林正鴻
作者(外文):Sun, Chin-HwaLin, Cheng-Hong
出版日期:2007
卷期:37:3
頁次:頁55-82
主題關鍵詞:南方黑鮪管理程序運作模式決策原則總可捕量Southern Bluefin TunaManagement procedureOperating modelDecision ruleTotal allowable catch
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:16
為保育與最適利用南方黑鮪的資源,南方黑鮪保育委員會(CCSBT)自2000年起開始發展管理程序(management procedure, MP),以制定一套明確且透明之全球總可捕量(total allowable catch, TAC)機制。CCSBT於2004年5月第三屆管理程序會議建構1969年至2000年南方黑鮪年齡結構化資源動態運作模式(operating model),用以模擬至2032年間之漁業資源狀態之參考模組(reference set),測試在不同資源回復目標下,各套決策原則(decision rule)如何動態調整訂定TAC。最後,篩選出四套表現理想之決策原則做為未來執行MP之決策選項,其中TAI_03決策原則為臺灣科學家代表所發展,為依CPUE變動率及漁獲量與魚價波動之逆需求彈性調整TAC之決策原則。 依CCSBT決議於2005年2月管理程序特別技術會議將資源動態運作模式更新至2003年,本研究首先依更新後之參考模組,進行模擬TAI_03決策原則的表現,並進一步設定TAI_04決策原則以降低TAC跨期變異程度,及設定TAI_05決策原則以短、中、長期三段不同期間的設定調整TAC,以期兼顧資源保育及產業穩定經營並於2005年5月第四屆管理程序會議提供此TAI_05決策原則,以進行四組候選決策原則之再評比。 本研究模擬結果顯示,TAI_05決策原則為四套候選決策原則中考量短期內緩降TAC以提供產業逐漸移出的機會,有效降低TAC跨期變異程度,降低產業所面對總收益的不確定性,並將長期資源匱乏之風險值控制在較低的水準,期以兼顧資源保育及漁業經濟活動,避免短、中、長期間社會經濟層面無謂的損失。
The management Procedure of Southern Bluefin Tuna (SBT) was developed since 2000 by the Commission for Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna (CCSBT) to conserve and ensure optimum utilization of the global SBT fishery through a transparent mechanism for deciding the global total allowable catch (TAC). According to both the official report of CCSBT for the third Meeting of the Management Procedure Workshop in May 2004, the Age-Structured Population Operating Model (OM) was established by utilizing the harvest data from 1969 to 2000 and was used to simulate the future trajectory reference set of the biomass and total allowable catch (TAC) till 2032. Four candidate decision rules (DR) were selected to decide the appropriate TAC trajectory under various scenarios in order to achieve the recovery target of the biomass. Among the final four candidate decision rules, TAI_03, proposed by Sun (2004), is a CPUE-based DR with a negative built-in feedback component in terms of the theoretical economic consideration of the inverse relationship between price and demand. This study tries to apply the TAI_03 decision rule on the updated Reference Set which is updated by the scientific advisory panel with harvest data until 2003 in February 2005. This study specifies the TAI_04 decision rule to reduce the interannual variation of TAC and the TAI_05 to adapt to the short-term, intermediate, and long-term situation in order to take into account both sustainability of resource management and industry operation. The simulation result of the TAI_05 decision rule was compared again with the other three candiate decision rules during the fourth management procedure workshop in 2005. The simulation results show that the TAI_05 decision rule would adjust TAC gradually for the industry to follow and to reduce the uncertainty in revenue in the short-term and to reduce the risk of resource deterioration and to fulfill the requirement that both the recovery of the biomass and the optimum utilization of the global SBT fishery in order to avoid the economic deadweight loss in the long run.
期刊論文
1.Polacheck, T.、Klaer, N. L.、Millar, C.、Preece, A. L.(1999)。An Initial Evaluation of Management Strategies for the Southern Bluefin Tuna Fishery。ICES Journal of Marine Science,56(6),811-826。  new window
2.Butterworth, D. S.、Punt, A. E.(1999)。Experiences in the Evaluation and Implementation of Management Procedures。ICES Journal of Marine Science,56(6),985-998。  new window
3.Sato, Y.(2002)。Fishy Business: A Political-economic Analysis of the Southern Bluefin Tuna Dispute。Asian Affairs: An American Review,28(4),217-237。  new window
會議論文
1.Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna(2000)。Report of the Sixth Annual Meeting: Second Part。0。  new window
2.Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna(2003)。Report of the Second Meeting of the Management Procedure Workshop。0。  new window
3.Butterworth, D. S.、Mori, M.(2004)。Application of Variants of a Fox-model Based MP to the "Christchurch" SBT Trials。0。  new window
4.Hiramatsu, K.、Kurota, H.、Shono, H.、Takahashi, N.(2004)。Behaviors of CPUE-based Management Procedures Examined through the CCSBT Final Trial Specifications。0。  new window
5.Polacheck, T.、Eveson, P.、Hartog, J.、Basson, M.、Kolody, D.(2004)。Comparison of the Performance of Tuned Candidate Management Procedures for Southern Bluefin Tuna Based on the Final Trial Specifications and Testing Procedures。0。  new window
6.Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna(2004)。Report of the Ninth Meeting of the Scientific Committee。0。  new window
7.Sun, C.-H.(2004)。Selection of the Decision Rules of Management Procedures for Southern Bluefin Tuna。0。  new window
8.Sun, C.-H.(2005)。An Evaluation of the TAI Candidate Management Procedure Rules for Southern Bluefin Tuna Based on the Updated Reference Set and Robustness Trails。0。  new window
9.Basson, M.、Eveson, P.、Hartog, J.、Kolody, D.、Polacheck, T.(2005)。Further Exploration and Evaluation of the FXR 01 Candidate Management Procedure Rule under the New Reference and Robustness Sets。0。  new window
10.Kurota, H.(2005)。Performance of the HK5 Management Procedure under the New Operating Models。0。  new window
11.Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna(2005)。Report of the Fourth Meeting of the Management Procedure Workshop。0。  new window
12.Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna(2005)。Report of the Special Management Procedure Technical Meeting。0。  new window
13.Commission for the Conservation of Southern Bluefin Tuna(2005)。Report of the Twelfth Annual Meeting of the Commission。0。  new window
14.Butterworth, D. S.、Mori, M.(2005)。Results of Refined D&M Management Procedure Applied to the Seattle 2005 Trials。0。  new window
研究報告
1.孫金華、江福松(2004)。南方黑鮪保育委員會資源管理程序決策原則之擬定策略。0。  延伸查詢new window
2.孫金華、江福松(2004)。南方黑鮪資源存量運作模式之資料結構探討。0。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Butterworth, D. S.、Cochrane, K. L.、De Oliveria, J. A. A.(1997)。Management Procedures: A Better Way to Manage Fisheries? The South African Experience。Global Trends: Fisheries Management。Bethesda, MD。  new window
 
 
 
 
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