資料載入處理中...
臺灣人文及社會科學引文索引資料庫系統
:::
網站導覽
國圖首頁
聯絡我們
操作說明
English
行動版
(18.222.115.166)
登入
字型:
**字體大小變更功能,需開啟瀏覽器的JAVASCRIPT,如您的瀏覽器不支援,
IE6請利用鍵盤按住ALT鍵 + V → X → (G)最大(L)較大(M)中(S)較小(A)小,來選擇適合您的文字大小,
如為IE7以上、Firefoxy或Chrome瀏覽器則可利用鍵盤 Ctrl + (+)放大 (-)縮小來改變字型大小。
來源文獻查詢
引文查詢
瀏覽查詢
作者權威檔
引用/點閱統計
我的研究室
資料庫說明
相關網站
來源文獻查詢
/
簡易查詢
/
查詢結果列表
/
詳目列表
:::
詳目顯示
第 1 筆 / 總合 1 筆
/1
頁
來源文獻資料
摘要
外文摘要
引文資料
題名:
後冷戰時期影響國際恐怖主義發生之結構因素:應用事件史分析法之探討
書刊名:
東吳政治學報
作者:
李佳怡
/
黃旻華
作者(外文):
Lee, Chia-yi
/
Huang, Min-hua
出版日期:
2007
卷期:
25:3
頁次:
頁1-49
主題關鍵詞:
國際恐怖主義
;
恐怖事件
;
事件史分析法
;
風險率
;
Cox共享脆弱性模型
;
International terrorism
;
Terrorist events
;
Event history analysis
;
Hazard rate
;
Cox shared frailty model
原始連結:
連回原系統網址
相關次數:
被引用次數:期刊(
3
) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(
1
)
排除自我引用:
3
共同引用:0
點閱:55
本文的研究目的在於利用事件史分析法找出後冷戰時期影響國家發生國際恐怖主義的主要因素,研究的時間範圍是1992年至2002年。利用ITERATE資料庫中這段時間的資料,本文建立了假設國家間有差異性的Cox共享脆弱性模型,估計各個因素對國際恐怖主義事件發生風險率的影響程度,並進一步將事件畫分成不同種類的恐怖活動,運用同樣的模型來檢視之,除了各項因素的影響力外,也探討國際恐怖事件在時間上的變化。 結果發現影響國家發生國際恐怖主義的因素主要有三個,分別是民主程度、中東地區與否、失業率,三者都對恐怖主義的風險率有正向影響力。此外,若將所有國際恐怖事件依攻擊手段和活動方式的不同,又可分成人質事件、爆炸事件、武裝攻擊事件、劫機事件、暗殺事件和威脅事件六大類,分別受不同因素所影響,其中影響人質事件最主要的因素是民主程度、失業率和種族齊一性;影響爆炸事件的因素則是都市化程度、國家硬體能力和陸地面積;而武裝攻擊事件則易發生在都市化程度較低和雖民主但尚不穩定的國家;至於和劫機事件的風險率有負相關的因素是國家硬體能力,正相關的則是人口和陸地面積;暗殺事件易發生在GDP成長率低、失業率高的國家;威脅事件則受民主程度和中東地區的正向影響。 此外,除了人質事件外,其餘五項事件多半集中在冷戰後三、四年,之後幾年的事件數則相對較少。而實際檢視資料後則發現,前幾年的事件數攀高是來自於特定恐怖團體所為,或是來自冷戰餘波的政治影響,而隨著冷戰的氣氛逐步消解、和平氛圍漸長,以及部分恐怖團體和政府和談成功後,恐怖事件在後幾年則顯著較少且較隨機。
以文找文
The purpose of this article is to apply event history analysis to determine what factors affect the occurrence of international terrorism in the post-Cold War era. The time period under observation is 1992 to 2002. Using an ITERATE data from this period, this paper builds Cox shared frailty models, which assume that there are differences between countries and estimate the effects of certain factors on the probability of incidents of international terrorism. Furthermore, incidents of terrorism are classified into six categories, and Cox shared frailty models are used to estimate the effects of different factors for each type. Variations in the numbers of incidents of international terrorism over time are also considered in this paper. The results show that there are three factors affecting the occurrence of international terrorism: the degree to which a country is democratic, whether or not a country is in the Middle East, and the unemployment rate in a country. These three factors have positive effects on the probability of occurrences of international terrorism. Moreover, incidences of terrorism are classified into six categories: hostage situations, bombings, armed attacks, hijackings, assassinations, and threats. The factors affecting these categories differ. There are three factors that affect hostage situations: the degree to which a country is democratic, the unemployment rate, and the ethnic homogeneity of a country. The probability of bombings is affected by the degree of urbanization, , and land area. The probability of armed attacks is more probable in countries with low levels of urbanization and unstable democracy. State technological capabilities have negative effects on the probability of hijackings, but land area and population size have positive effects. Assassinations occur more often in countries with low GDP growth rates or high unemployment rates. The probability of threats is positively affected by the degree to which a country is democratic and whether or not a country is in the Middle East. Finally, most terrorist events occurred during the first three or four years after the end of the Cold War, with the exception of hostage situations. The numbers of events then declined after that period. According to the data, events occurred mostly during the early years of the post-Cold War era, due to specific terrorist organizations or the political aftermath of the Cold War. Because the tense atmosphere of the Cold War dissipated, a peaceful atmosphere developed, and some terrorist groups negotiated with countries successfully, the number of terrorist acts declined in the last years that we observed in the post-Cold War era.
以文找文
期刊論文
1.
Cox, David R.(1972)。Regression Models and Life-Tables。Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B (Methodological),34(2),187-220。
2.
薛承泰(1993)。「事件時序分析法」(Event History Analysis)簡介。人口研究通訊,14,18-24。
延伸查詢
3.
Lafree, Gary、Tseloni, Andromachi(2006)。Democracy and Crime: A Multilevel Analysis of Homicide Trends in Forty-Four Countries, 1950-2000。The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science,605(1),25-49。
4.
Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M.、Zorn, Christopher(2002)。Duration Models for Repeated Events。The Journal of Politics,64(4),1069-1094。
5.
Li, Quan、Schaub, Drew(2004)。Economic Globalization and Transnational Terrorism: A Pooled Time-Series Analysis。The Journal of Conflict Resolution,48(2),230-258。
6.
Enders, Walter、Sandler, Todd(2000)。Is Transnational Terrorism Becoming More Threatening? A Time-Series Investigation。The Journal of Conflict Resolution,44(3),307-332。
7.
Windsor, Jennifer L.(2003)。Promoting Democratization Can Combat Terrorism。The Washington Quarterly,26(3),43-58。
8.
Piazza, James A.(2006)。Rooted in Poverty?: Terrorism, Poor Economic Development, and Social Cleavages。Terrorism & Political Violence,18(1),159-177。
9.
Ehrlich, Paul R.、Liu, Jianguo(2002)。Some Roots of Terrorism。Population and Environment,24(2),183-192。
10.
Ross, Jeffrey Ian(1993)。Structural Causes of Oppositional Political Terrorism: Towards a Causal Model。Journal of Peace Research,30(3),317-329。
11.
Kelly, Patrick J.、Lim, Lynette L-Y.(2000)。Survival Analysis for Recurrent Event Data: An Application to Childhood Infectious Diseases。Statistics in Medicine,19(1),13-33。
12.
Crenshaw, Martha(1981)。The Causes of Terrorism。Comparative Politics,13(4),379-399。
13.
Rosendorff, Peter B.、Sandler, Todd(2005)。The Political Economy of Transnational Terrorism。The Journal of Conflict Resolution,49(2),171-182。
14.
Knight, Charles(2003)。The Sources of Terrorism。International Security,28(2),192-198。
15.
Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M.、Jones, Bradford S.(1997)。Time Is of the Essence: Event History Models in Political Science。American Journal of Political Science,41(4),1414-1461。
16.
Sandler, Todd、Enders, Walter(1999)。Transnational Terrorism in the Post-Cold War Era。International Studies Quarterly,43(1),145-167。
會議論文
1.
張五岳、李華球(2003)。全球化下的反恐趨勢與兩岸民間交流。臺北市。317-348。
延伸查詢
圖書
1.
Long, David E.(1990)。The anatomy of terrorism。The Anatomy of Terrorism。New York, NY/ Toronto, Canada:Free Press/ Collier Macmillan Canada/ Maxwell Macmillan International。
2.
Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M.、Jones, Bradford S.(2004)。Event History Modeling: A Guide for Social Scientists。Cambridge University Press。
3.
Allison, Paul D.(1984)。Event History Analysis: Regression For Longitudinal Event Data。Sage Publications。
4.
楊永明(2003)。國際安全與國際法。臺北:元照出版社。
延伸查詢
5.
Laqueur, Walter(1977)。Terrorism。Terrorism。Boston, MA。
6.
Combs, Cindy C.(1997)。Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century。Terrorism in the Twenty-First Century。Upper Saddle River, NJ。
7.
山口一雄(2001)。事件史分析。事件史分析。臺北市。
延伸查詢
8.
Goldschmidt, Arthur, Jr.(2002)。A Concise History of the Middle East。A Concise History of the Middle East。Boulder, CO。
9.
Mickolus, Edward F.、Simmons, Susan L.(2002)。Terrorism, 1996-200: A Chronology。Terrorism, 1996-200: A Chronology。Westport, CT。
10.
蕭曦清(2003)。中東風雲。臺北:牧村圖書。
延伸查詢
11.
Martin, Gus(2003)。Understanding Terrorism: Challenges, Perspectives, and Issues。Understanding Terrorism: Challenges, Perspectives, and Issues。Thousand Oaks, CA。
12.
Frey, Bruno S.(2004)。Dealing with Terrorism: Stick or Carrot?。Dealing with Terrorism: Stick or Carrot?。Cheltenham, UK/ Northampton, MA。
13.
Bremer, Stuart A.(1980)。National Capabilities and War Proneness。The Correlates of War。New York, NY。
14.
Brannan, David W.(2006)。Left- and Right-wing Political Terrorism。The Politics of Terrorism: A Survey。London, UK。
其他
1.
Mickolus, Edward F.,Simmons, Susan L.(2004)。International Terrorism: Attributes of Terrorist Events, 1968-2002 (ITERATE 3),Dunn Loring, VA。
2.
United States Department of State(2006)。Patterns of Global Terrorism,0。
3.
CIA(2006)。The World Factbook. 2006. "Field Listing - Ethnic Groups",0。
圖書論文
1.
Post, M. Jerrold(1998)。Terrorist Psycho-logic: Terrorist Behavior as a Product of Psychological Forces。Origins of Terrorism: Psychologies, Ideologies, Theologies, States of Mind。Washington, DC:Woodrow Wilson Center Press。
推文
當script無法執行時可按︰
推文
推薦
當script無法執行時可按︰
推薦
引用網址
當script無法執行時可按︰
引用網址
引用嵌入語法
當script無法執行時可按︰
引用嵌入語法
轉寄
當script無法執行時可按︰
轉寄
top
:::
相關期刊
相關論文
相關專書
相關著作
熱門點閱
1.
以分析二元論揚棄宗教恐懼症與原教旨主義兩極:伊斯蘭恐懼症與伊斯蘭恐怖主義的初步研究
2.
反恐措施與人類安全:「防禦、外交、發展」三面向的整合模式
3.
國際恐怖主義研究--結構、策略、工具、資金
無相關博士論文
1.
恐怖主義的政治經濟學分析
無相關著作
無相關點閱
QR Code