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題名:臺指選擇權風險值之研究
書刊名:文大商管學報
作者:涂惠娟蔡垂君 引用關係
作者(外文):Tu, Hui-chuanTsai, Chui-chun
出版日期:2006
卷期:11:2
頁次:頁57-69
主題關鍵詞:風險值GARCH模型失敗率概似比檢定VaRGARCH modelProportion of failures testLR test
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:8
  • 點閱點閱:26
隨著金融市場的開放與自由化,金融商品間的關聯性日益密切;使得在金融市場中如何建立一個完善的風險管理評價機制中,成為目前相當為重要的課題。目前國內外許多研究發現,資產之報酬通常並不符合常態分配,且報酬是具有高峰及厚尾的現象,因此,如以常態分配來推論的話,可能會造成偏差的結果。本研究主要是以GARCH、EGARCH與GJR-GARCH模型,分別假設誤差項為漸進常態分配、t分配與GED分配,來計算臺指選擇權之風險值;另外風險值的評估方面,分別採用失敗次數、失敗率與Kupiec(1995)之概似比檢定來檢定風險值之模型之適合度。最後本研究之實證結果如下:(1)三種模型中以EGARCH模型表現較佳,臺指選擇權報酬率之變異具有不對稱性的情形。(2)在比較三種分配狀態後發現t分配較能正確的捕捉資料之波動性。
With the liberalization and opening of financial markets, the relationships among financial commodities become much closer day-by-day. Therefore, how to establish a perfect measure to evaluate risk in the financial markets has become an important topic. From lots of domestic and foreign studies, we find that the returns of financial properties usually do not follow normal distribution, and the phenomenon of leptokurtic and thick tails do exist as usual. So, if researchers assume normal distribution to analyze equity returns, they would probably get some wrong results. The purpose of this research is to compare with the value of risk of TSE index options, while we apply the GARCH, EGARCH and GJR-GARCH model to analyze, with assuming that the error terms are asymptotic normal distribution, or student t & GED distribution individually. Besides, we adopt failure tests, proportion of failures test and LR test to examine the models of fitting. Finally, we get two conclusions as followings (1) Comparing with these three models, we find that EGARCH model is a better method. The returns of TSE index options appear asymmetry situations. (2) After comparing these three distributions, we find that the student t can more accurately capture the volatility of the data.
期刊論文
1.McNeil, A. J.、Frey, R.(2000)。Estimation of tail-related risk measure for heteroscedastic financial time series: a extreme value approach。Journal of Empirical Finance,7,271-300。  new window
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3.Engle, R. F.(1982)。A quasi-bayesian approach to estimating parameters for mixture normal distributions。Journal of Business and Economics Statistics,9(1),27-39。  new window
4.Giot, P.、Laurent, S.(2003)。Market Risk in Commodity Markets: A VaR Approach。Energy Economics,25(5),435-457。  new window
5.Hull, John C.、White, Alan D.(1998)。Value at risk when daily changes in market variables are not normally distributed。Journal of Derivatives,5(3),9-19。  new window
6.Rubinstein, M.(1985)。Nonparametric tests of alternative option pricing models using all reported trades and quotes on the 30 most active CBOE options classes from August 23, 1976 through August 31, 1978。Journal of Finance,40,455-480。  new window
7.Fama, E. F.(1965)。The behavior of stock market price。Journal of Business,38(1),34-105。  new window
8.Meese, Richard A.(1986)。Testing for Bubbles in Exchange Markets: A Case of Sparkling Rates?。Journal of Political Economy,94(2),345-373。  new window
9.沈大白、柯瓊鳳、鄒武哲(19980900)。風險值衡量模式之探討--以臺灣上市公司權益證券為例。東吳經濟商學學報,22,57-76。new window  延伸查詢new window
10.Berndt, Ernst R.、Hall, Bronwyn H.、Hall, Robert E.、Hausman, Jerry A.(1974)。Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models。Annals of Economic and Social Measurement,3(4),653-665。  new window
11.Bollerslev, Tim(1986)。Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity。Journal of Econometrics,31(3),307-327。  new window
12.Kupiec, Paul H.(1995)。Techniques for Verifying the Accuracy of Risk Measurement Models。Journal of Derivatives,3(2),73-84。  new window
13.Mittnik, S.、Paolella, M. S.(2000)。Conditional Density and Value-at-Risk Prediction of Asian Currency Exchange Rates。Journal of Forecasting,19(4),313-333。  new window
14.Nelson, Daniel B.(1991)。Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach。Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society,59(2),347-370。  new window
15.Glosten, Lawrence R.、Jagannathan, Ravi、Runkle, David E.(1993)。On the Relation Between the Expected Value and the Volatility on the Nominal Excess Returns on Stocks。Journal of Finance,48(5),1779-1801。  new window
研究報告
1.Goorbergh, R. V. D.、Vlaar, P.(1999)。Value-at-Risk Analysis of Stock Returns Historical Simulation, Variance Techniques or Tail Index Estimation?。Amsterdmn:Econometric Research and Special Studies Dept. De Nederlandsche Bank。  new window
 
 
 
 
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