臺灣人文及社會科學引文索引資料庫系統

:::

詳目顯示

回上一頁
第 1 筆 / 總合 1 筆   第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁
/1頁
題名：Tourist Arrival Forecasting Using Adaptive Fuzzy Network
書刊名：文大商管學報
作者：江曉綺
作者(外文)：Jiang, Sheau-chi
出版日期：2007
卷期：12:1
頁次：頁187-206
主題關鍵詞：可適性模糊網路；觀光業；預測；學習演算法；Adaptive fuzzy network；Tourism；Forecast；Learning algorithm
原始連結：連回原系統網址new window
相關次數：
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:16
國際觀光業是世界最大及成長最快速的產業，由於觀光產業的產品與服務具有無法保存的特性，因此如果能準確預測國際觀光客人數便可對觀光產品、服務的提供及基本的設施做成功的規劃以增加經濟利益。因此本研究提出一個新的預測工具，即是使用以Widrow-Hoff學習演算法為基礎的可適性模糊網路來建立一個預測的模式，並據以預測來台的日本與美國觀光客人數，其預測結果可以達到非常不錯的準確度，因此可證實此研究所建立之模式是一個具有良好預測能力的模式，並可作為觀光產業決策者與管理者在觀光產品及設施規劃上的重要參考。
International tourism has become one of the largest and most rapidly growing industries in the world. Since there exists the perishable nature of the product and service in the tourism industry, it is crucial to have an accurate forecast of its international visitors and tourism receipts in order to choose an appropriate strategy for its economic benefits. In this paper, a new approach is proposed and that is a fully connected adaptive fuzzy network (AFN) based on Widrow-Hoff learning algorithm to model and forecast the tourist arrivals for the travel of international visitors to Taiwan. And the difference between the expected and the forecast output values falls into a very acceptable range of discrepancies, which means that using the adaptive fuzzy network has reached the required level of accuracy. The result is in good accord with the monitored data and allows its use as the forecasting model to help policy makers and managers of tourism industry to develop planning for various tourism activities.
期刊論文
1.Fayed, H.、Fletcher, J.(2002)。Globalization of Economic Activity: Issues for Tourism。Tourism Economics，8(2)，207-230。  new window
2.Andrew, W. P.、Cranage, D. A.、Lee, C. K.(1991)。Forecasting hotel occupancy rates with time series models: an empirical analysis。Hospitality Research Journal，14(2)，173-181。  new window
3.Castro, J. L.(1995)。Fuzzy logic controllers are universal approximators。IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics，25(4)，629-635。  new window
4.Chandra, S.、Menezes, D.(2001)。Applications of multivariate analysis in international tourism research: the marketing strategy perspective of NTOs。Journal of Economic and Social Research，3(1)，77-98。  new window
5.Chen, B. S.(1996)。H∞ tracking design of uncertain nonlinear SISO systems: adaptive fuzzy approach。IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems，4(1)，32-43。  new window
6.Funahashi, K.-I.(1989)。On the approximate realization of continuous mappings by neural networks。Neural Networks，2(3)，183-192。  new window
7.Hansen, J. V.、McDonald, J. B.、Nelson, R. D.(1999)。Time series prediction with genetic-algorithm designed neural networks: an empirical comparison with modern statistical models。Computational Intelligence，15(3)，171-184。  new window
8.Kuo, R. J.、Xue, K. C.(1998)。A decision support system for sales forecasting through fuzzy neural networks with asymmetric fuzzy weights。Decision Support Systems，24(2)，105-126。  new window
9.Law, R.(1998)。Room occupancy rate forecasting: A neural network approach。International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management，10(6)，234-239。  new window
10.Li, Y.、Deng, J. M.、Wei, M. Y.(2002)。Meaning and precision of adaptive fuzzy systems with Gaussian-type membership functions。Fuzzy Sets and Systems，127(1)，85-97。  new window
11.Maier, H. R.、Sayed, T.、Lence, B. J.(2000)。Forecasting cyanobacterial concentrations using B-spline networks。Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering，14(3)，183-189。  new window
12.Morley, C.(2000)。Demand modeling methodologies: integration and other issues。Tourism Economics，6(1)，5-19。  new window
13.Nunnari, G.、Nucifora, A. F. M.、Randieri, C.(1998)。The application of neural techniques to the modelling of time-series of atmospheric pollution data。Ecol. Model，111(2/3)，187-205。  new window
14.Palmer, A.、Montaño, J. J.、Sesé, A.(2006)。Designing an artificial neural network for forecasting tourism time series。Tourism management，27(5)，781-790。  new window
15.Sugeno, M.、Kang, G. T.(1988)。Fuzzy identification of fuzzy model。Fuzzy Sets and Systems，28(1)，15-33。  new window
16.Tanaka, K.、Sugeno, M.(1992)。Stability analysis and design of fuzzy control systems。Fuzzy Sets and Systems，45(2)，135-156。  new window
17.Tong, S.、Li, H. X.(2002)。Direct adaptive fuzzy output tracking control of nonlinear systems。Fuzzy Sets and Systems，128(1)，107-115。  new window
18.Uysal, M.、El Roubi, M. S.(1999)。Artificial Neural Networks versus Multiple Regression in Tourism Demand Analysis。Journal of Travel Research，38(2)，111-118。  new window
19.Wang, L. X.(1993)。Stable adaptive fuzzy control of nonlinear systems。IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems，1(2)，146-155。  new window
20.Cho, V.(2003)。A Comparison of Three Different Approaches to Tourist Arrival Forecasting。Tourism Management，24(3)，323-330。  new window
21.Lim, C.(1997)。An Econometric Classification and Review of International Tourism Demand Models。Tourism Economics，3(1)，69-81。  new window
22.Wong, K. F.(1997)。The relevance of business cycles in forecasting international tourist arrivals。Tourism Management，18(8)，581-586。  new window
23.Athiyaman, A.、Robertson, R. W.(1992)。Time series forecasting techniques: short-term planning in tourism。International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management，4(4)，8-11。  new window
24.Law, Rob(2000)。Back-propagation learning in improving the accuracy of neural network-based tourism demand forecasting。Tourism Management，21(4)，331-340。  new window
25.Lin, C. T.、Lee, C. S. G.(1991)。Neural-network-based fuzzy logic control and decision system。IEEE Transactions on Computers，40(12)，1320-1336。  new window
26.Burger, C. J. S. C.、Dohnal, M.、Kathrada, M.、Law, R.(2001)。A practitioners guide to time-series methods for tourism demand forecasting: a case study of Durban, South Africa。Tourism Management，22(4)，403-409。  new window
27.Takagi, T.、Sugeno, M.(1985)。Fuzzy identification of systems and its application to modeling and control。IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics，15(1)，116-132。  new window
28.Witt, S. F.、Witt, Christine A.(1995)。Forecasting tourism demand: A review of empirical research。International Journal of Forecasting，11(3)，447-475。  new window
29.Zadeh, L. A.(1973)。Outline of a new approach to the analysis of complex systems and decision processes。IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics，SMC-3(1)，28-44。  new window
30.Cybenko, G.(1989)。Approximation by superpositions of a sigmoidal function。Mathematics of Control, Signals, and Systems，2(4)，303-314。  new window
31.Law, Rob、Au, Norman(1999)。A Neural Network Model to Forecast Japanese Demand for Travel to Hong Kong。Tourism Management，20(1)，89-97。  new window
32.Pattie, Douglas C.、Snyder, John(1996)。Using a neural network to forecast visitor behavior。Annals of Tourism Research，23(1)，151-164。  new window
33.Sheldon, Pauline J.、Var, Turgut(1985)。Tourism Forecasting: A Review of Empirical Research。Journal of Forecasting，4(2)，183-195。  new window
34.Hornik, Kurt、Stinchcombe, Maxwell、White, Halbert(1989)。Multilayer Feedforward Networks Are Universal Approximators。Neural Networks，2(5)，359-366。  new window
圖書
1.Jang, J. S. R.、Sun, C. T.、Mizutani, E.(1997)。Neural-fuzzy and soft computing。New Jersey：Prentice Hall。  new window
2.Wasserman, P. D.(1989)。Neural computing: Theory and practice。New York：Van Nostrand Reinhold。  new window
3.Lin, C. T.、Lee, C. S. G.(1996)。Neural Fuzzy Systems: A Neuro-Fuzzy Synergism to Intelligent Systems。Upper Saddle River, NJ：Prentice-Hall。  new window
4.Wang, L. X.(1997)。A Course in Fuzzy Systems and Control。Prentice-Hall International。  new window
5.Box, G. E. P.、Jenkins, G. M.(1976)。Time Series Analysis, Forecasting, and Control。Holden-Day。  new window
 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
QR Code
QRCODE

臺灣人文及社會科學引文索引資料庫

目前上線人數：403（臺灣：388，外國：15） ／ 本年度總使用人次：2446764 ／ 訪客人次（自102年09月）：68248223
國家圖書館著作權聲明 Copyright © 2013 All rights reserved.
本館地址: 100201臺北市中山南路20號． 本館地圖及交通資訊．
總機：(02)23619132．最佳瀏覽解析度為1024x768以上