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題名:股票政策宣告對農產品價格與股票價格的動態影響
書刊名:農業與經濟
作者:王葳 引用關係賴鐘惠胡士文 引用關係鄭嘉慧
作者(外文):Wang, VeyLai, Chung-huiHu, Shih-wenCheng, Chia-hui
出版日期:2007
卷期:39
頁次:頁1-43
主題關鍵詞:農產品價格股票價格融資利率融資比率動態Commodity pricesShare pricesFinancing interest rateFinancing ratioDynamics
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(2) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:2
  • 共同引用共同引用:26
  • 點閱點閱:33
肇因於1970年代美國農產品價格的巨幅波動,各國農業經濟學者開始關注匯率、利率或貨幣供給等總體變數對農產品價格可能造成的影響。其後,相關的實證文獻頗多,但結論不一。此外,1981年Blanchard將股票市場納入傳統的IS-LM模型,說明利多與利空對總體政策的影響。然而,反觀農業經濟領域,截至目前爲止,卻未見有文獻討論金融市場對農產品價格的衝擊。本研究擬將Lai et al. (1996)兩產品部門的總體經濟模型納入股票市場,建構包含:農產品市場、製造業產品市場、貨幣市場以及股票市場的理論模型,並假設股票與債券爲完全替代資產,且民眾具有完全預知的預期形成;據以探討倘若政府或金融主管機構宣布即將調整融資利率、融資比率以及每單位股票分配到的產出份額時,農產品價格與股票價格的動態調整軌跡。分析結果顯示,當相關當局採行預料到的股票政策,長期而言,農產品價格可能上升也可能下降,端視農產品的價格效果與利率效果的相對大小而定。至於短期,股票價格可能出現錯向調整的現象,端視宣告至執行之時差而定。
It has been an important issue to analyze the possible impact of macroeconomic effects, such as: exchange rate or interest rate, on the commodity prices since 1970s because of the tremendous volatility of commodity prices on the US. Thereafter, there are a lot of literature in agricultural economics relative to the empirical study. But the results of these literature are ambiguous. On the other hand, Blandchard (1981) incorporated the stock market into the traditional IS-LM model and discussed the interaction between stock market and economy. The financial sector plays an important role to affect the time path of commodity prices it cannot be ignored since agricultural industry is just one of sector among the whole economy. The main purpose of this article is to add the stock market into the two-goods economy. One is commodity product and the other is nonagricultural product. According the model including commodity market, nonagricultural product market, monetary market and stock market and under the assumptions of perfect substitutes between stock and bond and perfect foresight expectation, the effect of stock market policies, such as financing interest rate, financing ratio, on dynamics of commodity and share prices will be analyzed. The result shows that in the long run the impact of stock policies on commodity prices depends on the relative magnitudes of price effect of commodity and interest rate effect. While in the short run, whether share price overshooting or not it depends on the length of time between announcement and implement of policies.
期刊論文
1.Van der Ploeg, F.(1989)。Election Outcomes and the Stock Market。European Journal of Political Economy,5(1),21-30。  new window
2.Aoki, Masanao(1985)。Misadjustment to Anticipated Shocks: An Example of Exchange-Rate Response。Journal of International Money and Finance,4(3),415-420。  new window
3.Belongia, M. T.(1991)。Monetary Policy and the Farm/Nonfarm Price Ratio: A Comparison of Effects in Alternative Models。Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review,73,30-46。  new window
4.Bessler, David A.(1984)。Relative Prices and Money: A Vector Autoregression on Brazilian Data。American Journal of Agricultural Economics,66(1),25-30。  new window
5.Bordo, M. D.(1980)。The Effects of Monetary Change on Relative Commodity Prices and the Role of Long-Term Contracts。Journal of Political Economy,88,1088-1109。  new window
6.Choe, Young Chan、Koo, Won W.(1993)。Monetary Impacts on Prices in the Short and Long Run: Further Results for the United States。Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics,18(2),211-224。  new window
7.Frankel, J. A.(1986)。Expectations and Commodity Price Dynamics: The Overshooting Model。American Journal of Agricultural Economics,68,344-348。  new window
8.Lai, C. C.、Hu, S. W.、Wang, V.(1996)。Commodity Price Dynamics and Anticipated Shocks。American Journal of Agricultural Economics,78,982-990。  new window
9.Gavin, Michael(1989)。The stock market and exchange rate dynamics。Journal of International Money and Finance,8(2),181-200。  new window
10.曹添旺、朱美麗(19901200)。貨幣政策、匯率與股價的動態調整-- 理論分析與模擬驗證。經濟論文叢刊,18(4),449-466。new window  延伸查詢new window
11.Isaac, A. G.、Rapach, D. E.(1997)。Monetary Shocks and Relative Farm Prices: A Re-examination。American Journal of Agricultural Economics,79(4),1332-1339。  new window
12.Orden, D.(1986)。Money and Agriculture: The Dynamics of Money Financial Market-Agricultural Trade Linkages。Agricultural Economics Research,38(3),14-28。  new window
13.Taylor, J. S.、Spriggs, J.(1989)。Effects of the Monetary Macro-economy on Canadian Agricultural Prices。Canadian Journal of Economics,22(2),278-289。  new window
14.朱美麗、曹添旺(19870900)。產出水準、股票市場與滙率動態調整。經濟論文,15(2),45-59。new window  延伸查詢new window
15.Dornbusch, Rudiger(1976)。Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics。Journal of Political Economy,84(6),1161-1176。  new window
16.Blanchard, Olivier J.(1981)。Output, the Stock Market, and Interest Rates。American Economic Review,71(1),132-143。  new window
17.Chambers, R. G.(1984)。Agricultural and Financial Market Interdependence in the Short Run。American Journal of Agricultural Economics,66,12-24。  new window
18.Saghaian, S. H.、Reed, M. R.、Marchant, M. A.(2002)。Monetary Impacts and Overshooting of Agricultural Prices in an Open Economy。American Journal of Agricultural Economics,84,90-103。  new window
19.洪德佳、劉祥熹(2000)。貨幣供給與進口物價對臺灣地區農工產品價格影響之長短期效果:共整合方法之應用。農業經濟叢刊,6(1),67-114。new window  延伸查詢new window
20.Blanchard, O. J.(1983)。Dynamic Effects of a Shift in Savings: The Role of Firms。Econometrica,51,1583-1591。  new window
21.Orden, D.、Fackler, P. L.(1989)。Identifying Monetary Impacts on Agricultural Prices in VAR Models。American Journal of Agricultural Economics,71,495-502。  new window
22.Schuh, G. E.(1974)。The Exchange Rate and U.S. Agriculture。American Journal of Agricultural Economics,56,1-13。  new window
學位論文
1.黃承祖(2002)。融資成數與股價及匯率的錯向調整,0。  延伸查詢new window
2.鄭嘉慧(2005)。股票市場干擾對農產品價格與股票價格的衝擊,0。  延伸查詢new window
3.張馨方(2005)。臺灣股票市場股價與融資、融券餘額之相關性研究,0。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Rayner, A. J.、Colman, D.(1993)。Current Issues in Agricultural Economics。Current Issues in Agricultural Economics。London, UK。  new window
2.In, F.、Mount, T.(1994)。Dynamic Macroeconomic Linkages to the Agricultural Sector: An Application of Error Correction Models to Cointegrated Relationships。Dynamic Macroeconomic Linkages to the Agricultural Sector: An Application of Error Correction Models to Cointegrated Relationships。Aldershot, UK。  new window
 
 
 
 
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