:::

詳目顯示

回上一頁
題名:臺灣與國際股市極端值報酬相關性之研究
書刊名:交大管理學報
作者:周建新 引用關係簡淑敏
作者(外文):Chou, Jian-hsinChan, Shu-min
出版日期:2008
卷期:28:1
頁次:頁205-250
主題關鍵詞:極端值理論相關性多元常態分配Extreme value theoryExtreme-returns correlationMultivariate normal distribution
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:19
  • 點閱點閱:32
在全球化之投資趨勢中,藉由了解國際股市之關聯性,可作為政府制定跨國投資政策之參考,及國內投資人分散投資組合風險之依據。本文利用Longin and Solnik(2001)所提出之極端值理論,來研究臺灣與美國、日本、香港、新加坡及南韓等五個國家股市,在月報酬及週報酬下的極端值相關性。實結果顯示在月資料下,報酬為負時之相關性皆比報酬為正時來的大;並且報酬為負時,卻是逐漸下降。若以週資料為樣本時,實證結果發現不論報酬為正或負,其股價指數之相關性皆為下降之趨勢。最後,假設資料間為多元常態分配下,實證結果發,以週報酬或是月報酬率資料來看,不管股市報酬為正或為負,隨著門權值之增加,股市間之相關性反而愈小。
In today’s globalized investing environment, the government sets overseas-investing policy, and cosmetic investors decide how to diversify their portfolios, by examining the correlation among international equity market. This paper uses the extreme value theory proposed by Longin and Solnik (2001) to investigate the similarities between the international and Taiwan stock markets. Five national stock markets (those of Taiwan, the United States, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea) are used to test their extreme-returns relationships. The empirical results show that, in monthly data, the correlation of extreme negative returns among the five countries is greater than the correlation of extreme positive returns. When extreme returns are negative, the stock price index correlation rises when the absolute value of the correlation threshold increases; when extreme returns are positive, the stock price index correlation drops when the threshold value decreases. On the contrary, in weekly data, the empirical results indicate that the correlation of extreme returns among the five countries decreases regardless of whether the returns are negative or positive. Finally, if we assume that the sample data are in a multivariate normal distribution, no matter whether the data is weekly or monthly, or the returns are negative or positive, when the absolute value o the correlation threshold increases, the correlations tend to decrease.
期刊論文
1.Bae, K. H.、Karolyi, G. A.(1994)。Good News, Bad News and International Spillovers of Stock Return Volatility between Japan and the U.S.。Pacific-Basin Finance Journal,2(4),405-438。  new window
2.周建新、于鴻福、廖盈秋(20040600)。極值理論與臺股指數期貨合理保證金之估計。交大管理學報,24(1),23-52。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.Booth, G. G.、Broussard, J. P.、Martikainen, T. P.、Puttonen, V.(1997)。Prudent Margin Levels in the Finnish Stock Index Futures Market。Management Science,43(8),1177-1188。  new window
4.Chowdhury, A. R.(1994)。Stock Market Interdependencies: Evidence from the Asian NIEs。Journal of Macroeconomics,16(4),629-651。  new window
5.Ho, L. C.、Burridge, P.、Cadle, J.、Theobald, M.(2000)。Value at Risk: Applying the Extreme Value Approcah to Asian Markets in the Recent Financial Turmoil。Pacific-Basin Finance Journal,8(2),249-275。  new window
6.Warshawsky, M. J.(1989)。The Adequacy and Consistency of Margin Requirements: The Cash, Futures, and Options Segments of the Equity Markets。Review of Futures Markets,8(3),420-437。  new window
7.Longin, F. M.(1999)。Optimal Margin Level in Futures Markets: Extreme Price Movements。The Journal of Futures Market,19(2),127-152。  new window
8.Ball, C. A.、Torous, W. N.(2000)。Stochastic Correlation across International Stock Markets。Journal of Empirical Finance,7(3),373-388。  new window
9.Engle, R. F.(1990)。Discussion: Stock Market Volatility and The Crash of 87。Review of Financial Studies,3,109-106。  new window
10.Knif, J.、Pynnönen, S.(1999)。Local and Global Price Memory of International Stock Markets。Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money,9(2),129-147。  new window
11.徐守德(19951000)。亞洲股市間共整合關係之實證研究。證券市場發展,7(4)=28,33-57。new window  延伸查詢new window
12.Broussard, J. P.(2001)。Extreme-Value and Margin Setting With and Without Price Limits。The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,41(3),365-385。  new window
13.周恆志、曹懋鍇(20040900)。極端值理論於指數期貨保證金設定上之應用。亞太社會科技學報,4(1),69-94。  延伸查詢new window
14.Huang, B. N.、Yang, C. W.、Hu, John W. S.(2000)。Causality and Cointegration of Stock Market among the United States, Japan, and the South China Growth Triangle。International Review of Financial Analysis,9(3),281-297。  new window
15.黃博怡、陳達新、陳君達(20031200)。亞太地區股市動態不對稱性之研究。中原企管評論,1(2),147-174。new window  延伸查詢new window
16.King, Mervyn、Sentana, Enrique、Wadhwani, Sushil(1994)。Volatility and Links between National Stock markets。Econometrica,62(4),901-933。  new window
17.Longin, Francois M.(2000)。From Value at Risk to Stress Testing: The Extreme Value Approach。Journal of Banking & Finance,24(7),1097-1130。  new window
18.Longin, F. M.(1996)。The Asymptotic Distribution of Extreme Stock Market Returns。Journal of Business,69(3),383-408。  new window
19.Engle, R. F.(1982)。Autoregressive Conditional Heteroske- dasticity with Estimates of the Variance of U.K. Inflation。Econometrica,50(4),987-1008。  new window
20.Black, Fischer(1976)。The Pricing of Commodity Contracts。Journal of Financial Economics,3(1/2),167-179。  new window
21.Eun, C.、Shim, S.(1989)。International Transmission of Stock Market Movement。Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,24(2),241-256。  new window
22.Longin, Francois M.、Solnik, Bruno(2001)。Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets。Journal of Finance,56(2),649-676。  new window
23.Christie, A. A.(1982)。The Stochastic Behavior of Common Stock Variance: Value, Leverage and Interest Rate Effects。Journal of Financial Economics,10(4),407-432。  new window
24.Grubel, Herbert G.(1968)。Internationally Diversified Portfolios: Welfare Gains and Capital Flows。The American Economic Review,58(5),1299-1314。  new window
25.Bollerslev, Tim(1986)。Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity。Journal of Econometrics,31(3),307-327。  new window
26.Nelson, Daniel B.(1991)。Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach。Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society,59(2),347-370。  new window
27.楊踐為(1999)。美、日、港、臺四地股價指數聯動關係之探討。亞太管理評論,4(2),97-107。  延伸查詢new window
28.Makridakis, S. G.、Wheelwright, S. C.(1974)。An Analysis of the Interrelationships among the Major World Stock Exchange。Journal of Business Finance and Accounting,1(2),195-216。  new window
29.徐守德、林恩右(1993)。臺灣與國際股價互動關係之研究。管理科學學報,10(2),179-222。  延伸查詢new window
30.Broussard, J. P.、Booth, G. G.(1998)。The Behavior of the Extreme Values in Germany's Stock Index Futures: An Application to Intradaily Margin Setting。European Journal of Operational Research,104(3),393-402。  new window
31.Bennett, P.、Kelleher, J.(1988)。The International Transmission of Stock Price Disruption in October 1987。Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review,13(2),17-33。  new window
32.Becker, K. G.、Finnerty, J. E.、Tucker, A. L.(1992)。The Intraday Interdependence Structure between U.S. and Japanese Equity Markets。Journal of Financial Research,15(1),27-37。  new window
33.Darbar, S. M.、Deb, P.(1997)。Co-movements in International Equity Markets。Journal of Financial Research,20(3),305-322。  new window
34.邱建良、邱哲修、黃紀風(2000)。國際股票市場共整合與動態關聯性之實證研究。企銀季刊,23(4),155-177。  延伸查詢new window
35.Fisher, K. P.、Palasvirta, A. P.(1990)。High Road to a Global Market Place: The International Transmission of Stock Market Fluctuation。The Financial Review,25(3),371-394。  new window
36.Vilasuso, J.、Katz, D.(2000)。Estimates of the Likelihood of Extreme Returns in International Stock Markets。Journal of Applied Statistics,27(1),119-130。  new window
37.Gumbel, E. J.(1961)。Multivariate Extremal Distributions。Bulletin de Institut International de Statistiques,33(2)。  new window
38.Rabemananjara, R.、Zakoian, J. M.(1993)。Threshold ARCH Models and Asymmetric in Volatility。Journal of Applied Econometrics,8(1),31-49。  new window
39.Ledford, A. W.、Tawn, J. A.(1997)。Statistics for Near Independence in Multivariate Extreme Values。Biometrika,83(1),169-187。  new window
40.Kristin, J. F.、Menzie, D. C.(2004)。A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets over Time。The Review of Economics and Statistics,86(3),705-722。  new window
41.Dewachter, H.、Gielen, G.(1999)。Setting Futures Margins: The Extremes Approach。Applied Financial Economics,9(2),173-181。  new window
42.古永嘉、萬文隆(2002)。兩岸三地連動之研究-狀態空間模型之應用。證券櫃檯,48-65。  延伸查詢new window
43.張巧宜(2003)。美國與臺灣股價共移程度研究-分數共整合之應用。東吳經濟商學學報,99-120。new window  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.陳柏翰(2002)。價格極端波動下之謹慎保證金政策(碩士論文)。國立中央大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.林于文(2003)。股價、匯價、利率傳遞效果之分析--多變量VAR-EGARCH的應用(碩士論文)。逢甲大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.汪曉雯(2000)。美國與臺灣股市外溢效果之研究--金融風暴前後之探討(碩士論文)。淡江大學。  延伸查詢new window
4.廖珮真(1993)。美、日、英、港、臺五國股市報酬率多元時間數列關聯性之研究(碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
5.王君文(2001)。極端值理論風險值評估模式之探討,0。  延伸查詢new window
6.謝金星(2004)。大宗穀物期貨投資組合風險值研究-結合GARCH與極端值理論模型之應用,0。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Jorion, P.(2000)。Value at Risk。McGraw-Hill。  new window
 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
QR Code
QRCODE