Baldwin (1993) 以「骨牌效應」（ domino effect ）來解釋當前全球的 FTA 蔓延現象，不僅相當生動，也是貫穿本文的主要理論依據。本文主旨在於透過「貿易政策」（ trade policy ）與「經濟手段」（ economic statecraft ）的分析視角，比較研究美國跟中國近來的貿易政策思維與如何運用 FTA （ Free Trade Agreement, FTA ）作為經濟戰略，並據以蠡測其對兩岸關係的可能影響。 美國是國際經貿規則的制定或倡議者， NAFTA （北美自由貿易區）之建立即扮演了推動此波全球 FTA 洽簽風潮的始作俑者，並正式確立了「雙軌貿易政策」（ WTO 多邊與 FTA 雙邊政策並行，但仍側重前者）。然而，美國在全球是 FTA 的「領導者」，在東亞地區則唯恐被「邊緣化」而轉為「防衛性」角色。 對中國而言，近年來隨著東亞區域主義 ( 或雙邊主義，以 FTA 為代表 ) 興起，加上原先的多邊主義（ WTO, 2001 ）與單邊主義（包括改革開放，以及 APEC 之協調式單邊主義），三大貿易政策乃逐漸到位（但由於本身經濟發展需要，經貿方面仍側重單邊主義）。值此同時，中國經濟崛起加上經貿體制異常開放，導致周邊國家紛紛成為（或以其）為重要經貿伙伴，配合國際政經情勢等有利因素，在在為中國提供了絕佳的區域舞台。雖然中國 在全球是 FTA 風潮的「追隨者」（或 late comer ），但在東亞地區則有轉為「領導者」的態勢。 在美台 FTA 持續沒有進展的情況下，美國之更積極參與東亞 FTA 賽局，結果可能反而對台灣不利。而本身就具有排他特性的 FTA ，也已成為中國孤立台灣的新工具。亦即美國與中國的 FTA 政策，不管有無意圖（ intentions ），實質上已形成「邊緣化」台灣的壓力，而此一態勢當會增加台灣（或民間部門）對兩岸（經貿）關係正常化的需求。

This paper explores the characteristics of trade policy in the United States and China and highlights their FTA strategies in terms of economic statecraft, especially their implications for the cross-strait relationship. The US is the most important initiator of international trading system. The establishment of NAFTA in 1994 served as the catalyst for the recent regionalism. US is the leader in FTA globally, however, US has left behind the trade arrangements in East Asia such as ‘ASEAN plus one” and “ASEAN plus three” In this sense, US plays the defensive role or a follower in East Asia . All three trade policies now are available for China as the surge of regionalism in East Asia (bilateralism, FTA for example), the entrance into WTO in 2001 (multilateralism), and the reform and opening (unilateralism) since 1978 as well as the membership of APEC (concerted unilateralism) in 1991. Meanwhile, the rise of China combined with its high openness in terms of trade and FDI has made China become an important trading partner for neighboring countries. It paves therefore the way for China to become a potential leader in East Asian regionalism compared with its role as a follower in the global FTA games. Under the threat of exclusion in East Asian regionalism, US has launched more FTAs plans in this area in a more active way. However, Taiwan seems to be ignored, despite US has singed an FTA with Taiwan 's competitor South Korea . Moreover, China seems to finds the FTA as the new instrument to isolate Taiwan in international arena. This paper concludes that both FTA policy of US and China might well marginalize Taiwan , whose demand for normalization of cross-strait economic relationships might increase.