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題名:遺傳神經網路股票買賣決策系統的實證
書刊名:電子商務學報
作者:黃兆瑜葉怡成連立川
作者(外文):Huang, Chao-yuYeh, I-chengLien, Li-chuan
出版日期:2008
卷期:10:4
頁次:頁821-848
主題關鍵詞:股票市場技術指標遺傳演算法類神經網路Stock marketTechnical indexGenetic algorithmsNeural networks
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:2
  • 點閱點閱:37
本研究採用「強化式」機器學習策略,跳過建構股價漲跌預測系統,而直接建構遺傳神經網路 (Genetic Neural Networks, GNN) 買賣決策系統,並針對台灣股市實證幾個重要的課題。研究結果顯示:(1) 在大盤指數方面,在GNN的演化過程中,確實可以觀察到「訓練期間績效與測試期間績效相關」與「隨著演化世代增加績效增加」現象,顯示GNN確實學習到具普遍化獲利能力的大盤交易策略。(2) 使用包含成交量的資訊產生的系統如果能避免過度學習,可以提高投資績效。(3) 使用短訓練期間 (4.5年) 的系統的獲利明顯小於使用長訓練期間 (12年) 者,顯示4.5年的訓練期間太短,不足以學習到具普遍化獲利能力的交易策略。(4) 使用「多遺傳神經網路多數決策略」顯示採用多數決策略無助於提高對大盤的投資績效,但可使其更穩定。(5) 在類股指數方面,其獲利能力等同買入持有策略,顯示GNN決策系統無法提高類股投資績效。
This study employed "Reinforced Learning" strategy to bypass stock price f1uctuationprediction stage and construct stock trading decision system using Genetic Neural Networks (GNN) directly. The system was validated by several important topics aiming at Taiwan stock market. The results showed the following conclusions. (1) In the evolution process of GNN with regard to stock index of Taiwan, two phenomena can be observed. First, the training period performance is correlated with test period performance. Second, the performance increases with each evolution generation of GNN. These two phenomena demonstrated that GNN can learn the general profitable trading strategy on stock index of Taiwan. (2) The trading system using price as well as volume information could increase investment perform­ance if it can avoid over-learning. (3) The profit of the trading system using short period in­formation (4.5 years) is obviously smaller than that using long period information (12years). It demonstrated that 4.5 years is t oo short to learn the general profitable trading strategy. (4) Using "majority decision strategy based on multi-GNNs" can not increase the mean but can reduce the standard deviation of profit. It demonstrated that this strategy is useful to improve the stability of investment performance on Taiwan stock market. (5) With regard to sector index, the profit of the trading system is about the same as the buy-and-hold strategy. It demonstrated that the system can not increase the investment performance on the sector index.
期刊論文
1.Allen, Franklin、Karjalainen, Risto E.(1999)。Using Genetic Algorithms to Find Technical Trading Rules。Journal of Financial Economics,51(2),245-271。  new window
2.Kuo, R. J.、Chen, C. H.、Hwang, Y. C.(2001)。An Intelligent Stock Trading Decision Support System through Integration of Genetic Algorithm Based Fuzzy Neural Network and Artificial Neural Network。Fuzzy Sets and Systems,118(1),21-45。  new window
3.Armano, G.、Marchesi, M.、Murru, A.(2005)。A hybrid genetic-neural architecture for stock indexes forecasting。Information Sciences,170(1),3-33。  new window
4.Lam, Monica(2004)。Neural Network Techniques for Financial Performance Prediction: Integrating Fundamental and Technical Analysis。Decision Support Systems,37(4),567-581。  new window
5.Kim, K. J.、Han, I.(2000)。Genetic algorithms approach to feature discretization in artificial neural networks for the prediction of stock price index。Expert Systems with Applications,19(2),125-132。  new window
6.連立川、葉怡成(2008)。以遺傳神經網路建構臺灣股市買賣決策系統之研究。資訊管理學報,15(1),29-51。new window  延伸查詢new window
7.Armano, G.、Murru, A.、Roli, F.(2002)。Stock Market Prediction by a Mixture of Genetic-neural Experts。International Journal of Pattern Recognition and Artificial Intelligence,16(5),501-526。  new window
8.Phua, H. P. K.、Ming, D.、Lin, W.(2001)。Neural Network with Genetically Evolution Algorithms for Stocks Prediction。Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research,18(1),103-108。  new window
9.Olson, D.、Mossman, C.(2003)。Neural Network Forecasts of Canadian Stock Returns Using Accounting Ratios。International Journal of Forecasting,19(3),453-465。  new window
10.Massimiliano, V.、Rushi, B.、Oliver, H.、Mark, S.、Versace, M.、Bhatt, R.、Hinds, O.、Shiffer, M.(2004)。Predicting the Exchange Traded Fund DIA with a Combination of Genetic Algorithms and Neural Networks。Expert Systems with Applications,27(3),417-425。  new window
11.Enke, D.、Thawornwong, S.(2005)。The Use of Data Mining and Neural Networks for Forecasting Stock Market Returns。Expert Systems with Applications,29(4),927-940。  new window
12.Lee, R. S. T.(2004)。iJADE Stock Advisor: An Intelligent Agent Based Stock Prediction System Using Hybrid RBF Recurrent Network。IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Part A: Systems and Humans,34(3),421-428。  new window
13.Booker, L. B.、Goldberg, D. E.、Holland, J. H.(1989)。Classifier Systems and Genetic Algorithms。Artificial Intelligence,40(1-3),235-282。  new window
會議論文
1.Kwon, Y. K.、Moon, B. R.(2003)。Daily Stock Prediction Using Neuro-genetic Hybrids。0。2203-2214。  new window
2.Hayward, S.(2004)。Setting up Performance Surface on an Artificial Neural Network with Genetic Algorithm Optimization: In Search of an Accurate and Profitable Prediction for Stock Trading。0。948-954。  new window
學位論文
1.周慶華(2001)。整合基因演算法及類神經網路於現貨開盤指數之預測--以新加坡交易所摩根台股指數期貨為例(碩士論文)。輔仁大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.林耀堂(2001)。遺傳程式規劃於股市擇時交易策略之應用(碩士論文)。國立中央大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.連立川(2005)。遺傳演算法在強化式學習之應用,0。  延伸查詢new window
4.李建輝(2002)。遺傳演化類神經網路在預測臺股指數期貨的應用,0。  延伸查詢new window
5.林建成(2001)。遺傳演化類神經網路於臺灣股市預測與交易策略之研究,0。  延伸查詢new window
6.劉克一(2000)。以遺傳演算法演化類神經網路在股價預測上的應用,0。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Holland, J. H.(1975)。Adaptation in Natural and Artificial Systems: An Introductory Analysis with Application to Biology, Control, and Artificial Intelligence。MI:University of Michigan Press。  new window
2.葉怡成(2006)。類神經網路模式應用與實作。臺北市:儒林。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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