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題名:時間序列與收費站模擬模式應用於電子收費車道使用需求預測與車道配置:以泰山收費站為例
書刊名:運輸學刊
作者:胡守任 引用關係楊慧華
作者(外文):Hu, Shou-renYang, Hui-hua
出版日期:2009
卷期:21:2
頁次:頁145-178
主題關鍵詞:電子收費系統需求預測時間序列收費站模擬模式Electronic toll collectionDemand forecastingTime seriesToll plaza simulation model
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(2) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:2
  • 共同引用共同引用:3
  • 點閱點閱:68
高速公路收費站區為國道高速公路交通瓶頸所在,透過高速公路電子收費系統(ETC)的使用,可以增加收費站容量、縮短收費時間、提高用路人的安全及便利,並具有節省能源及降低污染等多項優點,預計可以改善高速公路收費站區交通擁擠與環境衝擊等問題。我國國道高速公路電子收費系統正式使用以來,泰山收費站電子收費車道雙向使用率最高,且已達政府合約增設車道標準;但申請增設車道的同時,亦遭遇不小的反對聲浪,鑒於高速公路資源有限,如何根據用路人需求與經濟效益等因素,有效配置收費站區之電子與人工收費車道,實為重要的研究課題之一。本研究運用泰山收費站電子收費車道每日通行量歷史資料,以時間序列法建立需求預測模式,並與實際通行量作比較,以驗證模式的可靠程度。其次,本研究運用收費站模擬模式(TPS),分析ETC車道配置數量及使用率對收費站整體服務績效之影響。實證分析結果顯示,僅以ETC車道使用率作為增設ETC車道的標準,恐無法達成改善收費站區整體績效之終極目標。相關研究成果,預計可以提供相關主管機關未來在增設電子收費車道與相關政策之參考。
Traffic congestion and bottleneck are usually observed at toll plaza areas in a freeway system. Implementation of an electronic toll collection (ETC) system is not only able to increase toll plaza throughputs and reduce toll collection time, but it also helps to increase freeway users' safety level and convenience as well as resolve energy consumption and air pollution problems. It is expected to improve the problems associated with traffic congestion and environmental impact at toll plaza areas. Since the formal implementation of ETC in the freeway system of Taiwan, the Taishan toll station has been encountering the most ETC lane usage in both directions. The ETC traffic demands have also reached the threshold of increasing one more ETC lane in each direction. However, some concerns are raised by the general public since extra delays might occur in the manual toll collection lanes. Therefore, in view of the limited freeway resources, there is a crucial research topic on the reasonable allocation of ETC and manual lanes at a toll station under the considerations of freeway users' demand and economic benefits. To tackle this problem, this research first constructs a time series model using the historical traffic flow data to estimate the ETC traffic flow patterns and compares the predicted ETC traffic flows to the observed data to verify the reliability of the constructed time series model. In addition, this research adopts a toll plaza simulation (TPS) model to evaluate the effects of ETC lane allocation and usage on the overall service performance at the Taishan toll station. The empirical study results indicate that the ultimate goals of implementing the ETC system might not be achieved by simply considering the ETC lane usage rate as the only one criterion to open new ETC lanes. The outcomes of this research can be a beneficial reference for the freeway management agency to determine the appropriate timing for adding additional ETC lanes and other relevant polices.
期刊論文
1.曾平毅、王俊成(20030300)。中山高速公路地磅站作業評估之研究。運輸計劃,32(1),103-129。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.曾平毅、林豐博、張瓊文、蘇振維(20021200)。高速公路收費站延滯模式之研究。運輸計劃,31(4),795-815。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.陳敦基(1994)。臺灣地區城際客運需求時間數列模式建立之研究。運輸計劃季刊,23(2),155-183。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.張學孔、賴禎秀、吳清慈(2004)。高速公路電子收費系統之車道配置及其成本效益分析。運輸計劃季刊,33(1),29-58。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.Moorthy, C. K.、Ratcliffe, B. G.(1988)。Short Term Traffic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods。Transportation Planning and Technology,12(1),45-56。  new window
6.Williams, B. M.、Durvasula, P. K.、Brown, D. E.(1998)。Urban Freeway Traffic Flow Prediction: Application of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing Models。Transportation Research Record,1644,132-141。  new window
會議論文
1.Li, J.、Gillen, D.、Dahlgren, J.(1999)。Benefit-cost Evaluation of the Electronic Toll Collection System: A Comprehensive Framework and Application。78th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting,(會議日期: 1999/01/10-14)。Washington, D.C。  new window
2.Akaike, H.(1973)。Information Theory and an Extension of the Maximum Likelihood Principle。The Second International Symposium on Information Theory。Budapest:Akademiai Kiado。267-281。  new window
研究報告
1.交通部運輸研究所(1993)。台灣地區高速公路容量與服務水準評估指標之研究。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.賴炳榮(1999)。電子收費系統收費站服務績效之研究:TTPS模式之運用(碩士論文)。國立交通大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.謝霖霆(2001)。高速公路收費站電子收費車道設置之研究(碩士論文)。國立中央大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.石珉宇(2002)。台灣地區海洋貨櫃運輸商品運量預測方法之研究(碩士論文)。國立交通大學。  延伸查詢new window
4.王耀駿(2005)。高速公路電子收費即時費率與駕駛者行為影響之研究。  延伸查詢new window
5.吳奇軒(2002)。臺灣西部走廊客運需求時間序列決策模型之研究。  延伸查詢new window
6.陳欣欣(2001)。臺鐵旅運需求與預測之研究。  延伸查詢new window
7.游智元(2006)。時間序列方法於臺鐵短期旅運需求預測之研究。  延伸查詢new window
8.楊文瑋(2004)。中正國際機場需求預測模式建構與評估-時間序列之應用。  延伸查詢new window
9.廖惠卿(2002)。高速公路電子收費車道配置對收費站服務績效影響之研究。  延伸查詢new window
10.劉士豪(2004)。高速公路電子收費之收費模式研究。  延伸查詢new window
11.賴泰元(2000)。利用時間序列模式探討臺鐵旅運需求。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Lewis, C. D.(1982)。Industrial and Business Forecasting Method。London:Butterworths。  new window
2.陳一昌。臺灣地區智慧型運輸系統綱要計畫-2003-2010。臺灣地區智慧型運輸系統綱要計畫-2003-2010。臺北市。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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