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題名:博弈產業與總體經濟指標關聯性之研究--以美國拉斯維加斯與澳門為例
書刊名:華人經濟研究
作者:李堯賢楊琮階蔡介偉
作者(外文):Lee, Yao-hsienYang, Tsung-chiehTsai, Chieh-wei
出版日期:2009
卷期:7:2
頁次:頁57-77
主題關鍵詞:博弈產業總體經濟Johansen共整合檢定Granger因果關係檢定Gambling industryMicroeconomicJohansen cointegrationGranger causality
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:8
  • 點閱點閱:39
本研究係以美國拉斯維加斯與澳門為主要研究對象,探討博羿產業收益成長率與總體經濟指標(實質經濟成長率、消費者物價指數年增率及失業率)之關聯性,並運用Johansen共整合檢定及Granger因果關係檢定進行探討,藉此瞭解各變數之間的關聯性。實證結果如下:(1)長期共整合檢定結果顯示,美國拉斯維加斯博拜產業收益成長率與兩總體經濟指標「美國失業率與美國消費者物價指數年增率」之間,存在著長期均衡關係;另外,澳門博弈產業收益成長率則是與兩總體經濟指標「澳門失業率與澳門實質經濟成長率」之間,存在著長期均衡關係。(2)短期因果關係儉定結果顯示,美國拉斯維加斯博弈收益成長率對美國失業率呈現單向領先關係。另外,澳門博弈收益成長率對澳門失業率亦呈現單向領先關係。綜合以上結果發現,失業率與博弈產業之間的關聯性相當密切。
In this study, we investigate the relationship between the gambling industry revenue growth rates and macroeconomic indicators (e.g., real economic growth rate, annual growth rate of the consumer price index and unemployment rate) by applying Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality test. We select Las Vegas and Macau as empirical subjects because these two areas can relatively easy to obtain the statistical data. Our results show that: (1) Long-term Johansen cointegration results show that the revenue growth rate of the Las Vegas gambling industry and the two macroeconomic indicators (the U.S. unemployment rate and the U.S. annual growth rate of the consumer price index) exist long-term equilibrium relationships. In addition, the revenue growth rate of the Macau gambling industry and the two macroeconomic indicators (the Macao unemployment rate and the Macao real economic growth) exist long-run equilibrium relationships. (2) The short-term Granger causal result shows that the revenue growth rate of the Las Vegas gambling industry leads the United States unemployment rate. In addition, the revenue growth rate of Macau gambling industry leads the Macau unemployment rate. The above results indicate that the unemployment rate is useful macroeconomic indicator to predict the business prospective of gambling industry.
期刊論文
1.聶建中(2002)。影響來台旅遊人數及觀光外匯收入總體變數決定因素之研究。管理學報,19(3),1-17。new window  延伸查詢new window
2.范智明(2002)。運動博弈產業--發展運動的活水或毒液。國民運動季刊,135,58-64。  延伸查詢new window
3.Back, K. J.、Lee, C. K.(2005)。Residents’ Perceptions of Casino Development in Korea: The Kangwon Land Casino Case。UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal,9(2),45-53。  new window
4.Granger, Clive W. J.(1986)。Developments in the study of co-integrated Economic Variables。Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,48(3),213-228。  new window
5.Granger, Clive W. J.(1969)。Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods。Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society,37(3),424-438。  new window
6.Dickey, David A.、Fuller, Wayne A.(1981)。Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root。Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society,49(4),1057-1072。  new window
7.Johansen, Søren、Juselius, Katarina(1990)。Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration: with Applications to the Demand for Money。Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,52(2),169-210。  new window
8.Granger, Clive William John、Newbold, Paul(1974)。Spurious Regressions in Econometrics。Journal of econometrics,2(2),111-120。  new window
研究報告
1.靜宜大學觀光事業學系(1994)。賭博性娛樂事業的發展趨勢及階段性策略之研究。  延伸查詢new window
2.劉代洋、張光第(2008)。臺灣發展觀光賭場之策略規劃。臺北:行政院經濟建設委員會。  延伸查詢new window
學位論文
1.黃俊仁(2007)。觀光賭場開放對商圈經濟衝擊之研究--以澎湖馬公商圈為例(碩士論文)。世新大學,臺北市。  延伸查詢new window
2.張淑華(2002)。金融發展與經濟成長之因果關係--日本、韓國與台灣之實證研究(碩士論文)。真理大學,台北市。  延伸查詢new window
3.鄭伊岑(2001)。總體經濟與購併行為之互動----美國實證(碩士論文)。朝陽科技大學。  延伸查詢new window
4.Kim, J.(2000)。How Can the Experience of the US Casino Industry be Adopted to South Korea?(碩士論文)。Nevada University。  new window
5.張於節(2002)。賭場模式發展觀光之影響研究--以綠島地區為例(碩士論文)。國立東華大學,花蓮縣。  延伸查詢new window
6.曾紫玉(1994)。賭博性娛樂事業的發展趨勢及其影響之探討(碩士論文)。中國文化大學,台北市。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.American Gaming Association(2006)。State of the States: the AGA Survey of Casino Entertainment。Washington, DC:Author. American Gaming Association。  new window
 
 
 
 
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