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題名:臺指選擇權隱含波動率指標對真實波動率與指數報酬的資訊內涵之研究
書刊名:創新與管理
作者:郭玟秀 引用關係陳仁龍邱永金
作者(外文):Kuo, Wen-hsiuChen, Jen-lungChiu, Yung-chin
出版日期:2010
卷期:7:2
頁次:頁127-146
主題關鍵詞:隱含波動率波動率指數真實波動率指數選擇權資訊內容Implied volatilityVolatility indexRealized volatilityIndex optionInformation content
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(3) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:3
  • 共同引用共同引用:8
  • 點閱點閱:50
最近,台灣期貨交易所編製台指選擇權波動率指數高頻率日內資料庫,係依據芝加哥選擇權交易所(CBOE)研發之「波動率指數編製公式」所計算,針對台灣選擇權市場的交易活動,編製一套合適的波動率指數。本文將利用台灣期貨交易所編製的台指選擇權VIX及VXO日內資料庫,五分鐘、十五分鐘、三十分鐘之高頻率資料,探討台指選擇權波動率指數對於台股指數未來波動性及報酬率是否具有資訊內容。實證結果發現,相較於VXO,VIX最能有效解釋未來真實波動率且為正向關係;VIX及VXO的變動對股價指數報酬同期變動皆為顯著負相關,但不對稱關係不明顯;在研究波動率指數變動與未來股價報酬關係方面,則以VIX有較佳的解釋能力且亦呈現顯著負相關,支援波動率指數為反向操作指標之假說;同時發現,隨著計算期間的增加,所納入的資訊越多,波動率指數對於股價指數未來的波動性及同期報酬的解釋能力越佳。
Recently, the Taiwan Futures Exchange(TAIFEX)uses the volatility index model constructed by CBOE to set up the intraday volatility index database of Taiwan's option market. The purpose of this research is to use five-minute, fifteen-minute, and thirty-minute data of the VIX and VXO(that is the VIX of 1993)from TAIFEX database to examine information content of volatility indices for realied volatility and index return. The results indicate that the VIX has the best explanatory ability for the realied volatility, and there is a positive relationship between the realized volatility and VIX. Furthermore, there is a negative relationship between the changes in the stock index return and volatility indices, but the asymmetric effect is not very significant. The VIX not only has the best explanatory ability for forecasting the stock index return, but there is a negative relationship between the future stock index return. Meanwhile, we found that if the more term and information are considered, the explanatory ability of volatility indices for realized volatility and stock index return will increase.
期刊論文
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17.Whaley, R. E.(20000300)。The Investor Fear Gauge。Journal of Portfolio Management,26(3),12-17。  new window
18.Wong, Woon K.、Tu, Anthony H.(2009)。Market imperfections and the information content of implied and realized volatility。Pacific-Basin Finance Journal,17(1),58-79。  new window
19.Day, Theodore E.、Lewis, Craig M.(1992)。Stock Market Volatility and the Information Content of Stock Index Options。Journal of Econometrics,52(1/2),267-287。  new window
20.Canina, Linda、Figlewski, Stephen(1993)。The informational Content of Implied Volatility。The Review of Financial Studies,6(3),659-681。  new window
21.Black, Fischer、Scholes, Myron S.(1973)。The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities。Journal of Political Economy,81(3),637-654。  new window
22.羅庚辛、藍宇文、李宛柔(20071200)。波動率指標、真實波動率與市場報酬間關係之研究。中原企管評論,5(2),41-71。new window  延伸查詢new window
23.Lamoureux, C. G.、Lastrapes, W. D.(1993)。Forecasting Stock-Return Variance: Toward an Understanding of Stochastic Implied Volatility。The Review of Financial Studies,6(2),293-326。  new window
24.Harvey, C.、Whaley, R.(1992)。Market Volatility Prediction and the Efficiency of the S&P 100 Index Option Market。Journal of Financial Economics,31,43-73。  new window
25.Engle, R.、Ng, V.(1998)。Measuring and Testing of the Impact of News on Volatility。The Journal of Finance,48,1749-1778。  new window
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研究報告
1.Meade, N.(1993)。The Integrated Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic Model。San Diego, C.A.:Department of Economics, University of California。  new window
2.Martens, M.、Zein, J.(2002)。Predicting financial volatility : highfrequency time series forecasts vis-a-vis implied volatility。Rotterdam:Erasmus University。  new window
3.Giot, P.(2002)。Implied Volatility Indices as Leading Indicators of Stock Index Returns。CORE, University of Leuvain。  new window
學位論文
1.陳思名(2005)。臺指選擇權波動性指標之預測能力比較(碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.林佩蓉(2000)。Black-Scholes模型在不同波動性衡量下之表現--股價指數選擇權(碩士論文)。國立東華大學。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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