新凱因斯前瞻性模型下釘住名目所得政策的優越性：以利率作為操作目標之探討_

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題名：	新凱因斯前瞻性模型下釘住名目所得政策的優越性：以利率作為操作目標之探討
書刊名：	經濟研究. 臺北大學經濟學系
作者：	方中柔
作者(外文)：	Fang, Chung-rou
出版日期：	2010
卷期：	46:2
頁次：	頁217-243
主題關鍵詞：	新凱因斯前瞻性模型；釘住名目所得；目標區政策；隨機過程；New Keynesian forward-looking model；Nominal income targeting；Target zone policy；Stochastic processes
原始連結：	連回原系統網址
相關次數：	被引用次數:期刊(2) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0) 排除自我引用:2 共同引用:0 點閱:29

本文嘗試在包含產出與通膨兩預期項之新凱因斯前瞻性模型下，以圖解的方式來探討：貨幣當局實施釘住名目所得目標區之貨幣政策，對各總體經濟變數的穩定效果。相較於 Bean (1983) 及West (1986) 的結果，在利率法則之新凱因斯前瞻性模型下，本文發現：面對不同來源的衝擊，總合需求的實質貨幣彈性並非影響釘住名目所得指標之穩定效果的關鍵。此外，本文亦發現：假如從目標區觀點而言，民眾對產出變動之預期將扮演關鍵角色；此產出變動預期之力量，將加大產出之波動，使釘住名目所得貨幣政策之優越性未必成立。此不同之結論，或許可提供政府作為實施貨幣政策之參考。

以文找文

Based on a New Keynesian forward-looking model embodying both future output and inflation expectations, this paper develops a graphical exposition to explain stabilizing performance of targeting nominal income relative to targeting interest rate from the viewpoint of target zones. Contrast to the outcomes of Bean (1983) and West (1986), with different shocks but stabilization through the non-conventional interest rate rule, we find that the elasticity of aggregate demand to real money balances is not the key factor in targeting nominal income. In addition, we discover that previous wisdom regarding the advantage of targeting nominal income stems from focusing on the level of nominal income. If the target zone of nominal income is considered, output expectations would generate a conflict effect to the realization of the nominal income band. Hence the advantage of targeting nominal income may not appear.

以文找文

期刊論文
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7.	Bradley, M. D.、Jansen, D. W.(1989)。The Optimality of Nominal Income Targeting When Wages Are Indexed to Price。Southern Economic Journal，56，13–23。
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9.	Dick, J.(1998)。Looking Back at Forward-Looking Monetary Policy。Journal of Economics and Business，53，509-521。
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14.	Rudebusch, G. D.(2002)。Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty。The Economic Journal，112(479)，402-432。
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17.	Taylor, John B.(1993)。Discretion versus Policy Rules in Practice。Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy，39，195-214。
18.	Fanga, Chung-rou、Lai, Ching-chong(2002)。Targeting Nominal Income versus Targeting Price level: A Target Zone Perspective。International Review of Economics and Finance，11，229-249。
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22.	賴景昌、王志旭(2007)。「名目所得指標與貨幣供給指標的抉擇：文獻的綜合與回顧」。中山大學社會科學論叢，1:1，45-88。延伸查詢
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25.	Asako, K. and H. Wagner(1992)。“Nominal Income Targeting versus Money Supply Targeting,”。Scottish Journal of Political Economy，39，169-187。
26.	Bean, C.(1983)。“Targeting Nominal Income: An Appraisal,”。The Economic Journal，93，803-819。
27.	Benavie, A. and R. T. Froyen(1983)。“Combination Monetary Policies to Stabilize Price and Output under Rational Expectations,”。Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking，15，186-198。
28.	Bradley, M. D. and D. W. Jansen(1989)。“Understanding Nominal GNP Targeting,”。Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review，71，31-40。
29.	European Central Bank(1999)。“Euro Area Monetary Aggregates and Their Role in the Euro System’s Monetary Policy Strategy,”。ECB Monthly Bulletin，February，29-40。
30.	Guender, A. V.(2001)。“Alternative Monetary Policy Rules and Specification of the Phillips Curve: A Comparison of Nominal Income with Strict Inflation Targeting,”。Kredit und Kapital，4，526-553。
31.	Guender, A. V.(2002)。“Optimal and Efficient Monetary Policy Rules in a Forward-Looking Model,”。Journal of Macroeconomics，24，41-49。
32.	Jansen, D. W. and S. G. Kim(1993)。“Targeting Nominal Income: Further Results,”。Southern Economic Journal，59，385-393。
33.	Judd, J. P. and B. Motley(1993)。“Using a Nominal GDP Rule to Guide Discretionary Monetary Policy,”。Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review，autumn，9-11。
34.	Kahn, G. A.(1988)。“Nominal GNP: An Anchor for Monetary Policy?”。Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review，73，18-35。
35.	Kerr, W. and R. G. King(1996)。“Limits on Interest Rate Rules in the IS Model,”。The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly，83:1，47-75。
36.	King, R. G.(2000)。“The New IS-LM Model: Language, Logic, and Limits,”。The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly，86:2。
37.	Koenig, E. F.(1996)。“Targeting Nominal Income: A Closer Look,”。Economics Letters，51，89-93。
38.	McCallum, B. T.(1987)。“The Case for Rules in the Conduct of Monetary Policy,”。Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv，123，415-429。
39.	McCallum, B. T.(1999)。“Recent Developments in the Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules,”。Federal Reserve Bank of St，81:6，3-11.。
40.	Meade, J. E.(1978)。“The Meaning of Internal Balance,”。The Economic Journal，88，423-435。
41.	Poole, W.(1970)。“Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instrument in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model,”。Quarterly Journal of Economics，84，197-216。
42.	Tobin, J.(1980)。“Stabilization Policy Ten Years After,”。Brookings Papers on Economic Activity，1，19-72。
43.	Trehan, B.(1999)。“Supply Shocks and the Conduct of Monetary Policy,”。Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter，July，21-99。
44.	Turnovsky, S. J.(1975)。“Optimal Choice of Monetary Instrument in a Linear Economic Model with Stochastic Coefficients,”。Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking，7，51-80。
45.	Turnovsky, S. J.(1980)。“Choice of Monetary Instrument under Alternative Forms of Price Expectations,”。The Manchester School，48，39-62。
46.	West, K. D.(1986)。“Targeting Nominal Income: A Note,”。The Economic Journal，96，1077-1083。
47.	賴景昌、王志旭(2007)。名目所得指標與貨幣供給指標的抉擇：文獻的綜合與回顧。中山大學社會科學論叢，1(1)，45-88。延伸查詢
48.	Aizenman, J.、Frenkel, J. A.(1986)。Supply Shocks, Wage Indexation and Monetary Accommodation。Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking，18，304-322。
49.	Aizenman, J.、Frenke, lJ. A.(1986)。Targeting Rules for Monetary Policy。Economics Letters，21，183-187。
50.	McCallum, B. T.(1987)。The Case for Rules in the Conduct of Monetary Policy。Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv，123，415-429。
51.	McCallum, B. T.(1999)。Recent Developments in the Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules。Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review，81(6)，3-11。
52.	Meade, J. E.(1978)。The Meaning of Internal Balance。The Economic Journal，88，423-435。
53.	Poole, W.(1970)。Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instrument in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model。Quarterly Journal of Economics，84，197-216。
54.	Taylor, J.(1992)。The Great Inflation, the Great Disinflation, and Policies for Future Price Stability。Inflation, Disinflation and Monetary Policy。
55.	Asako, K.、Wagner, H.(1992)。Nominal Income Targeting versus Money Supply Targeting。Scottish Journal of Political Economy，39，169-187。
56.	Bean, C.(1983)。Targeting Nominal Income: An Appraisal。The Economic Journal，93，803-819。
57.	Benavie, A.、Froyen, R. T.(1983)。Combination Monetary Policies to Stabilize Price and Output under Rational Expectations。Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking，15，186-198。
58.	Bradley, M. D.、Jansen, D. W.(1989)。Understanding Nominal GNP Targeting。Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review，71，31-40。
59.	Tobin, J.(1980)。Stabilization Policy Ten Years After。Brookings Papers on Economic Activity，1，19-72。
60.	Trehan, B.(1999)。Supply Shocks and the Conduct of Monetary Policy。Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter，21-99。
61.	Turnovsky, S. J.(1975)。Optimal Choice of Monetary Instrument in a Linear Economic Model with Stochastic Coefficients。Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking，7，51-80。
62.	Turnovsky, S. J.(1980)。Choice of Monetary Instrument under Alternative Forms of Price Expectations。The Manchester School，48，39-62。
63.	West, K. D.(1986)。Targeting Nominal Income: A Note。The Economic Journal，96，1077-1083。
64.	European Central Bank(1999)。Euro Area Monetary Aggregates and Their Role in the Euro System’s Monetary Policy Strategy。ECB Monthly Bulletin，29-40。
65.	Frankel, J.、Chinn, M.(1995)。The Stabilizing Properties of a Nominal GNP Rule。Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking，27，318-334。
66.	Guender, A. V.(2001)。Alternative Monetary Policy Rules and Specification of the Phillips Curve: A Comparison of Nominal Income with Strict Inflation Targeting。Kredit und Kapital，4，526-553。
67.	Guender, A. V.(2002)。Optimal and Efficient Monetary Policy Rules in a Forward-Looking Model。Journal of Macroeconomics，24，41-49。
68.	Jansen, D. W.、Kim, S. G.(1993)。Targeting Nominal Income: Further Results。Southern Economic Journal，59，385-393。
69.	Judd, J. P.、Motley, B.(1993)。Using a Nominal GDP Rule to Guide Discretionary Monetary Policy。Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Review，autumn，9-11。
70.	Kahn, G. A.(1988)。Nominal GNP: An Anchor for Monetary Policy?。Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review，73，18-35。
71.	Kerr, W.、King, R. G.(1996)。Limits on Interest Rate Rules in the IS Model。The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly，83，47-75。
72.	Koenig, E. F.(1996)。Targeting Nominal Income: A Closer Look。Economics Letters，51，89-93。

研究報告
1.	Ball, L.(1997)。Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy。
2.	McCallum, B. T.(1997)。“The Alleged Instability of Nominal Income Targeting,”。
3.	Orphanides, A.(1999)。“The Quest for Prosperity without Inflation,”。
4.	Orphanides, A.(1999)。The Quest for Prosperity without Inflation。
5.	McCallum, B. T.(1997)。The Alleged Instability of Nominal Income Targeting。

圖書
1.	Turnovsky, Stephen J.(2000)。Methods of Macroeconomic Dynamics。MIT Press。
2.	賴景昌(2007)。國際金融理論--基礎篇。華泰圖書有限公司。延伸查詢
3.	Clarida, R. and M. Gertler(1996)。“How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy,”。Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy。Chicago。
4.	Taylor, J.(1992)。“The Great Inflation, the Great Disinflation, and Policies for Future Price Stability,”。Inflation, Disinflation and Monetary Policy。Sydney。
5.	Clarida, R.、Gertler, M.(1996)。How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy。Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy。Chicago。

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