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題名:非線性演化式股票評價與資金配置模型
書刊名:管理與系統
作者:柯博昌林萍珍 引用關係田育任
作者(外文):Ko, Po-changLin, Ping-chenTien, Yu-jen
出版日期:2010
卷期:17:4
頁次:頁637-658
主題關鍵詞:股票市場資金配置股價評價遺傳演算法三次方程內插法Stock marketCapital allocationStock valuationGenetic algorithmsCubic spline
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:8
  • 點閱點閱:25
近年來台灣股票市場蓬勃發展,市值成長快速,報酬波動度(volatility)擴大,股票市場投資需要承擔相對較高的風險。股票評價的目的是評估股票的合理價格並挑選被市場低估的股票,搭配適當的資金配置以降低投資風險並獲取超額報酬。然而,兼具股票評價與資金分配的模型的研究並不多見。傳統評價方法存在許多模型的假設前題,不一定能有效符合市場特性;應用不同傳統模型於相同的證券市場也可能產生不同的研究結果,這表示股票的合理價格應該是區間值而不一定是單一值。傳統資金配置常見的作法是均等分配或依特定順序組合的線性分配模型,不適合應用於複雜、雜訊多且資訊多變的股票市場。本研究的目的是應用遺傳演算法建構「演化式股票評價」新模型,以最佳化股票價值的合理區間與交易區間。同時結合三次方程內插法,建置最適的非線性資金配置策略,以提高投資效益。研究結果發現,內含交易成本的變動型交易成立點(情境4)投資績效最佳,顯示本研究模型會依股票特性,演化出最適的合區股價區間與交易區間的資金配置策略,以提昇最終投資效益。此外,經由不同的盤勢分析發現,當大盤處於空頭時,股票愈低資金持有遞增分散持股成本;盤整走勢時,當股落入低估區與高估區才有交易行爲,無形減少交易次數與成本,此兩種走勢最能表現其獲利能力。整體而言,演化式股票評價的投資績效仍優於大盤。
Taiwan stock market has experienced higher volatility including stock prices and liquidity recently. It means that the stock investment will take higher risk with higher market volatility. Stock valuation is to calculate the required rate of return that company we are valuing. However, using different traditional valuation models will get unique risk/return combinations, even those in the same stock market or same industry. It suggests that the fair value of a stock should be a range rather than a single value. In this article, we propose a nonlinear stock investment and capital allocation model using a hybrid of Genetic algorithm (GA) and cubin spline (CS), where GA is used to optimize the fair range of stock price, and CS is used to estimate nonlinear capital allocations. From our experiments, this hybrid of GA and CS model could get better investment returns than using buy&hold generally. In addition, the mean stock price almost falls into the fair stock price range predicted by our model.
期刊論文
1.Penman, Stephen H.、Sougiannis, Theodore(1998)。A Comparison of Dividend, Cash Flow, and Earnings Approaches to Equity Valuation。Contemporary Accounting Research,15(3),343-383。  new window
2.林萍珍、陳稼興、林文修(20000700)。遺傳演算法在使用者導向的投資組合選擇之應用。資訊管理學報,7(1),155-171。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.Fama, Eugene F.、French, Kenneth R.(1995)。Size and Book-to-Market Factors in Earnings and Returns。The Journal of Finance,50(1),131-155。  new window
4.Ohlson, James A.(1995)。Earnings, Book Values, and Dividends in Equity Valuation。Contemporary Accounting Research,11(2),661-687。  new window
5.Frankel, Richard M.、Lee, Charles M. C.(1998)。Accounting valuation, market expectation, and cross-sectional stock returns。Journal of Accounting and Economics,25(3),283-319。  new window
6.Block, F. E.,(1964)。“A Study of Price to Book Relationship,”。Financial Analysts Journal,vol. 20,no. 5,pp.108-117。  new window
7.David, S. J. and Gregory, D. K.,(2006)。“A Contextual Analysis of Income- and Asset-Based Approaches to Private Equity Valuation,”。Accounting Horizons,vol. 20,no. 1,pp. 19-35。  new window
8.Francis, J., Olsson, P., and Oswald, D. R.,(2000)。“Comparing the Accuracy and Explainable of Dividend, Free Cash Flow, and Abnormal Earnings Equity Value Estimates,”。Journal of Accounting Research,vol. 38,no. 1,pp. 45-70。  new window
9.Lin, P. C. and Chen, J. S.,(2007)。“Fuzzy Tree Crossover for Multi-Valued Stock Valuation,”。Information Sciences,vol. 177,no. 1,pp. 1193-1203。  new window
10.Luca, L. G. and Carlo, P.,(2003)。“Stock Valuation Along a Markov Chain,”。Applied Mathematics and Computation,vol. 141,no. 1,pp. 385-393。  new window
11.McKee, T. E.,(2004)。“A New Approach to Uncertainty in Business Valuations,”。The CPA Journal,vol. 74,no. 4,pp. 46-48。  new window
12.O’Brien T. J.(2003)。“A Simple and Flexible DCF Valuation Formula,”。Journal of Applied Finance,vol. 30,no. 1,pp. 54-62。  new window
13.Ohlson, J.,(2005)。“On Accounting Based Valuation Formulae,”。Review of Accounting Studies,vol. 10,no.2-3,pp. 323-345。  new window
14.Xia, Y., Liu, B., Wang, S., and Lai, K. K.,(2000)。“A Model for Portfolio Selection with Order of Expected Return,”。Computers & Operations Research,vol. 27,no. 1,pp. 409-422。  new window
15.Block, F. E.(1964)。A Study of Price to Book Relationship。Financial Analysts Journal,20(5),108-117。  new window
16.David, S. J.、Gregory, D. K.(2006)。A Contextual Analysis of Income-and Asset-Based Approaches to Private Equity Valuatio。Accounting Horizons,20(1),19-35。  new window
17.Francis, J.、Olsson, P.、Oswale, D. R.(2000)。Comparing the Accuracy and Explainable of Dividend, Free Cash Flow, and Abnormal Earnings Equity Value Estimates。Journal of Accounting Research,38(1),45-70。  new window
18.Lin, P. C.、Chen, J. S.(2007)。Fuzzy Tree Crossover for Multi-Valued Stock Valuation。Information Sciences,177(1),1193-1203。  new window
19.Luca, L. G.、Carlo, P.(2003)。Stock Valuation Along a Markov Chain。Applied Mathematics and Computation,141(1),385-393。  new window
20.McKee, T. E.(2004)。A New Approach to Uncertainty in Business Valuations。The CPA Journal,74(4),46-48。  new window
21.O'Brien, T. J.(2003)。A Simple and Flexible DCF Valuation Formula。Journal of Applied Finance,30(1),54-62。  new window
22.Ohlson, J.(2005)。On Accounting Based Valuation Formulae。Review of Accounting Studies,10(2/3),323-345。  new window
23.Xia, Y.、Liu, B.、Wang, S.、Lai, K. K.(2000)。A Model for Portfolio Selection with Order of Expected Return。Computers & Operations Research,27(1),409-422。  new window
會議論文
1.Shoaf, J. and Foster, J. A.,(1998)。“The Efficient Set GA for Stock Portfolios,”。Anchorage, AK。pp. 354-359。  new window
2.Shoaf, J.、Foster, J. A.(1998)。The Efficient Set GA for Stock Portfolios。Anchorage, AK。354-359。  new window
研究報告
1.Bebchuk, L. A., ,(2000)。“Using Option to Divide Value in Corporate Bankruptcy,”。  new window
2.Bebchuk, L. A.(2000)。Using Option to Divide Value in Corporate Bankruptcy。  new window
圖書
1.Palepu, K. G., Bernard, V. L., and Healy, P. M. ,(1997)。Introduction to Business Analysis & Valuation。New York::South Western Inc。  new window
 
 
 
 
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