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題名：小區域人口推估研究：臺北市、雲嘉兩縣、澎湖縣的實證分析
書刊名：人口學刊
作者：陳政勳／余清祥 引用關係
作者(外文)：Chen, Cheng-hsun／Yue, Jack C.
出版日期：2010
卷期：41
頁次：頁153-183
主題關鍵詞：小區域人口推估；人口老化；人口變動要素合成法；電腦模擬；區塊拔靴法；Small area population projection；Population aging；Cohort component method；Block bootstrap；Computer simulation
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(5) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(1)
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一個國家的建立及發展與該國人口有關，依各地區人口成長趨勢推動相關政策，方能制定適合當地特性、符合經濟效益的政策。臺灣近年人口老化日益明顯，各縣市老化速度及人口結構不盡相同，若能獲得各地區未來人口相關資訊（亦即人口推估），再根據地區特性規劃需求，可減輕未來人口老化對臺灣造成的衝擊。本文即以縣市層級的人口推估，也就是小區域人口推估為目標，希冀提供臺灣各地未來政策規劃的參考。 本文考量的小區域人口推估，使用人口要素變動合成法(cohort component method)，加入生育、死亡、遷移三個因素，以臺北市、雲嘉兩縣、澎湖縣三個人口數不同的地區為範例，測試縣市層級的人口推估。對於生育、死亡、遷移三要素的未來數值推估，介紹不同模型，包括區塊拔靴法(block bootstrap)、篩網拔靴法(sieve bootstrap)、Lee-Carter模型及函數主成份分析(functional principal component analysis)。以估計誤差為衡量標準，比較年齡別死亡率，發現篩網拔靴法、區塊拔靴法、Lee-Carter模型三者的結果較佳；再將區塊拔靴法用於小區域推估，發現遷移對小區域人口扮演重要的角色，而且三個地區的人口老化速度也不一致，此與全國規模的人口推估結果截然不同。研究也發現人口三要素間是否相關也有影響，在傳統的人口推估通常假設三要素互相獨立，這種假設得出的預測區間遠小於三要素不獨立的結果。
The government can engage in better policy planning if the future population and its structure can be known in advance. This is especially true for local governments (e.g. at the county or township level) due to limited resources. Like many countries, Taiwan has been experiencing rapid population aging, and the allocation of resources has become very important. The aim of this paper is to find an appropriate method for projecting populations of small areas in Taiwan. First, we use 3 areas (county level) of Taiwan: Taipei City, Yunlin & Chiayi, and PengHu, to explore whether the cohort component method can be used for small area population projection. Also, to decide the future values of birth, death, and migration, we experiment with several probabilistic methods, including the Lee-Carter model, block bootstrap, sieve bootstrap, and functional principal component analysis. The block bootstrap is chosen for its simplicity and good accuracy. Combining the block bootstrap with the cohort component, we found that migration plays an important role in small area projection, while birth is more important in country level projection.
期刊論文
1.Hall, P.(1985)。Resampling a Coverage Pattern。Stochastic Processes and Their Applications，20(2)，231-246。  new window
2.郭孟坤、余清祥(20080600)。電腦模擬、隨機方法與人口推估的實證研究。人口學刊，36，67-98。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.Politis, D. N.、Romano, J. P.(1994)。The Stationary Bootstrap。Journal of the American Statistical Association，89(428)，1303-1313。  new window
4.Lee, Ronald D.、Carter, Lawrence R.(1992)。Modeling and Forecasting U.S. Mortality。Journal of the American Statistical Association，87(419)，659-671。  new window
5.Kanaroglou, P. S., H. F. Maoh, B. Newbold, D. M. Scott, and A. Paze.(2009)。A Demographic Model for Small Area Population Projections: An Application to the Census Metropolitan Area of Hamilton in Ontario, Canada.。Environment and Planning，41，964-979。  new window
6.Keilman, N., D. Q. Pham, and A. Hetland.(2002)。Why Population Forecasts Should be Probabilistic-Illustrated by the Case of Norway。Demographic Research，6，410-454。  new window
7.Koissi, M. C.、Shapiro, A. F.、Hognas, G.(2006)。Evaluating and Extending the Lee-Carter Model for Mortality Forecasting: Bootstrap Confidence Interval。Insurance: Mathematics and Economics，38(1)，1-20。  new window
8.Künsch H. R.(1989)。The Jackknife and the Bootstrap for General Stationary Observations。The Annuals of Statistice，17:，1217-1261。  new window
9.Lee, W. C.(2003)。A Partial SMR Approach to Smoothing Age-Specific Rates。Annals of Epidemiology，13(2)，89-99。  new window
10.Lewis, J. M.(1982)。Adaptation of P. D. Thompson's Scheme to the Constraint of Potential Vorticity Conservation。Monthly Weather Review，110:，1618-1634。  new window
11.Li, N., R. Lee, and S. Tuljapurkar.(2004)。Using the Lee-Carter Method to Forecast Mortality for Populations with Limited Data。International Statistical Review，72 (1)，19-36.。  new window
12.Rees, P., P. Norman, and D. Brown.(2004)。A Framework for Progressively Improving Small Area Population Estimates。Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A，167(1):，5-36。  new window
13.Smith, S. K.(1987)。Tests of Forecast Accuracy and Bias for County Population Projections。Journal of the American Statistical Association，82(400)，991-1003。  new window
14.Alonso, A. M.、Peña, D.、Romo, J.(2003)。On Sieve Bootstrap Prediction Intervals。Statistical & Probability Letters，65，13-20。  new window
15.Bühlmann P.(2002)。Bootstraps for Time Series。Statistical Science，17(1):，52-72。  new window
16.Cannan, E.(1895)。The Probability of a Cessation of the Growth of Population in England and Wales during the Next Century。The Economic Journal，5(20)，505-515。  new window
17.Denton, F. T., C. H. Feaver, and B. G. Spencer.(2005)。Time Series Analysis and Stochastic Forecasting: An Econometric Study of Mortality and Life Expectancy。Journal of Population Economics，18，203-227。  new window
18.Efron, B.(1979)。Bootstrap Method: Another Look at Jackknife。The Annals of Statistics，7(1)，1-26。  new window
19.Hyndman, R. J. and M. S. Ullah.(2007)。Roubust Forecasting of Mortality and Fertility Rates: A Functional Data Approach。Computational Statistics & Data Analysis，51(10):，4942-4956。  new window
20.Whelpton, P. K.(1928)。Population of the United States, 1925 to 1975。American Journal of Sociology，34(2)，253-270。  new window
21.Whittle, P.(1954)。On Stationary Processes in Plane。Biometrika，41，434-449。  new window
22.Lee, R. D.(1998)。Modeling and Forecasting US Mortality。Population and Development Review，24:，156-190.。  new window
研究報告
1.Gullickson, A.(2001)。Multiregional Probabilistic Forecasting。Vienna, Austria。  new window
2.Van der Gaag, N., J. de Beer, and F.Willekens.(2005)。MicMac: Combining Micro and Macro Approaches in Demographic Forecasting。The Netherlands。  new window
圖書
1.Rao, J. N. K.(2003)。Small Area Estimation。Hoboken, NJ：John Wiley & Sons, Inc。  new window
2.Alho, J. M.、Spencer, B. D.(2006)。Statistical Demography and Forecasting。New York, NY：Springer。  new window
3.Ramsay, J. O. and B.W. Silverman.(2005)。Functional Data Analysis. 2nd ed.。New York：Springer-Verlag.。  new window
4.Lawson, C. L.、Hanson, R. J.(1974)。Solving least squares problems。Englewood Cliffs：Prentice-Hall, Inc。  new window
5.Rogers, A.(1995)。Multiregional Demography: Principles, Methods and Extensions。New Jersey:。  new window
6.余清祥(1997)。修勻：統計在精算上的應用。臺北。  延伸查詢new window
其他
1.行政院經濟建設委員會(2008)。中華民國臺灣97年至145年人口推計報告，台北市：行政院經濟建設委員會。，http://www.cepd.gov.tw/ml.aspx?sNo=0000455， 。  延伸查詢new window
圖書論文
1.Mammen, E.、Nandi, S.(2004)。Bootstrap and Resampling。Handbook of Computational Statistics Concepts and Methods。Heidelberg：Springer。  new window
 
 
 
 
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