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題名:臺灣地區租賃公司信用風險評估模型之研究
書刊名:統計與資訊評論
作者:李孟峰李淑芬
作者(外文):Lee, Mong-hongLee, Shu Feng
出版日期:2010
卷期:12
頁次:頁27-38
主題關鍵詞:租賃公司新巴塞爾資本協定羅吉斯模型風險模型Leasing companyNew Basel accordLogit modelRisk model
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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自2006 年1月起,新巴塞爾資本協定正式於巴塞爾協會各會員國實施,該協定內含三大資本支柱,其中第一支柱包含內部信用風險模型之建立。國內金融機構若可自行建立一套信用風險管理機制,不僅符合新巴塞爾協定內部評等法的要求,還提供一個事前預警的訊號,促使金融機構可盡早偵測出信用風險,將損失降至最低。如何在穩定、簡單狀況下,建構最適切臺灣地區租賃公司信用風險評估模型,即為本文之目的。一般的信用評估模型,通常只以常用的「財務屬性指標」來建模,本文提出同時納入「企業文化與產業前景指標」來建立風險評估的羅吉斯模型。實証結果顯示,中小企業的財務資料可能無法完全揭露信用風險,尚需加入公司文化、產業前景及經營者本身的信用狀況等變數,方能務實且客觀評估其中小企業之信用風險。
The New Basel Accord, which had officially implemented in its member countries from 2006, becomes the major concern of the financial world. The New Basel Accord includes three pillars, and the most important feature of the first pillar is building an internal credit risk model. It is necessary for a financial institution to develop a management system of credit risk for the purpose of satisfying the internal ratings-based approaches of New Basel Accord. And the mechanism of risk control will help financial institution to detect the credit risk before its occurrence and further minimize the loss. The major purpose of this study is to construct an effective and stable statistic model that can appropriately assist financial enterprises in Taiwan to estimate the potential credit risk. The Logit Model was utilized in this study to construct the risk-alarming model for financial companies in Taiwan. In this study, not only financial variables are included but the indexes of cooperative culture and enterprise perspective are also considered in the model. The empirical data analysis indicated that the credit risk could not be entirely revealed based on the financial data of the companies. It might be necessary to take the cooperative culture and enterprise perspective of a company into account for increasing the explaining power of the prediction model.
 
 
 
 
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