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題名:Using Artificial Neural Networks to Automatically Construct Rule Base for Forecasting Taiwan Electronic Companies' Stock Return and ROE Performance
書刊名:財務金融學刊
作者:左杰官簡旭生
作者(外文):Tsoand, BrandtJiang, Shad S.
出版日期:2009
卷期:17:1
頁次:頁173-195
主題關鍵詞:類神經網路股票報酬率股東權益報酬率專家系統ANNStock returnROETREPANExpert system
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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The stock returns and ROE are meaningful to the shareholders to realize the level of investment feedbacks and companies’ profitability. The accurate forecasts for both factors thus can be very important to the investors. Instead of consulting to the financial experts, this study proposes an approach by decoding artificial neural networks (ANN) to automatically construct a rule base for performing forecasts. The ANN being implemented is the so-called back-propagation neural network. The algorithm known as TREPAN is introduced to uncover the hidden knowledge from ANN for building the relationship between company’s current financial indices and the probable performance in the next season. The study uses Taiwan stock market electronic companies in the time period from years 2000 to 2005 as a basis for carrying out experiments. The inputs for the ANN in this preliminary study are only concerned with the fundamental factors. It is expected that, through this empirical study, one may accelerate the rule base construction for the financial expert systems and to provide the more clear traces to improve the diagnosis to the companies. The results reveal that, using fundamental factors as inputs, the ANN can perform up to 70.68% accuracy in the experiments. In terms of TREPAN algorithm, the knowledge of companies’ financial performance can be successfully extracted from ANN, though the minor error may occur. Some interesting discoveries are also addressed.
期刊論文
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14.Milaré, C. R.、Carvalho, A. C. P. L. F.、Monard, M. C.。An Approach to Explain Neural Networks using Symbolic Algorithms。International Journal of Computational Intelligence and Applications,2,365-376。  new window
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會議論文
1.Andrews, R.、Geva, S.。Rule Extraction from a Constrained Error Back-propagation Multi-layer Perceptron9-12。  new window
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3.Chen, Q.、Goldstein, I.、Jiang, W.。Price Informativeness and Investment Sensitivity to Stock Price。  new window
4.Chen, Q.、Li, C. D.。Comparison of Forecasting Performance of AR, STAR and ANN Models on the Chinese Stock Market Index。Chengdu。464-470。  new window
5.Ford, M.、Browne, A.、Whitley, D.。A comparison of Neural Network and Symbolic Techniques。  new window
研究報告
1.Richardson, S. A.、Sloan, R. G.。External Financing and Future Stock Returns。  new window
學位論文
1.Craven, M. W.。Extracting Comprehensible Models from Trained Neural Networks,Madison, WI。  new window
2.Jiang, S. S.。Rule Extraction from Neural Networks - A Study for Financial Performance Prediction of Taiwan Listed Companies。  new window
3.Wang, V.。Stock Return Dynamics under Earnings Management。  new window
4.Zekic, M.。Structure Optimization of Neural Networks in Relation to Underlying Data。  new window
圖書
1.Tso, B.、Mather, P. M.。Classification Methods for Remotely Sensed Data。Classification Methods for Remotely Sensed Data。United Kingdom。  new window
 
 
 
 
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