The Impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in Taiwan's Tourism Industry : Cases of Inbound and Outbound Tourism_

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題名：	The Impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in Taiwan's Tourism Industry : Cases of Inbound and Outbound Tourism
書刊名：	觀光研究學報
作者：	閔辰華
作者(外文)：	Min, Jennifer C. H.
出版日期：	2004
卷期：	10:3
頁次：	頁67-87
主題關鍵詞：	爆發；觀光業；預測；時間數列；Outbreak；Tourism industry；Forecast；Time series
原始連結：	連回原系統網址
相關次數：	被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0) 排除自我引用:1 共同引用:0 點閱:33

嚴重急性呼吸道症候群 (SARS) 的爆發造成台灣近年來最大的災害，其中尤以觀光業所受之衝擊最為嚴重。本研究之研究目的，欲評估此疾病對台灣觀光業所造成之衝擊、本研究以時間數列建立來華和國人出國觀光的二個Box-Jenkins SARIMA預測模型，並分別預測在SARS爆發時之來華和出國旅道人數 (民國九十二年三月至七月)，預測值再與實際值進行比較以分析其所受之影響、研究結果顯示，在SARS爆發的這五個月期間，台灣觀光業遭受到嚴重之衝擊、根據研究結果，對於觀光業及後續研究亦提出相關之建議。

以文找文

The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak caused the most catastrophic disaster in Taiwan's recent past, and the greatest effects were felt instantly in the tourism industry. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of the epidemic in Taiwan'¦s tourism industry. This research establishes two models for Taiwan's inbound and outbound tourism demand to predict the volume of tourist arrivals and departures, respectively, during and following the outbreak (March-July 2003). The forecasts are based on the time series of Box-Jenkins SARIMA models, which are then compared with the actual volume of visitor arrivals and tourist departures to analyze the impact. The empirical results indicate that during these 5 affected months, Taiwan'¦s tourism industry was devastated brutally by this disease. Based on the results, implications and recommendations are provided to the tourism authorities, and future research possibilities are also devoted.

以文找文

Other
1.	Lim, C., & McAleer, M.(2002a)。Forecasting tourist arrivals。

期刊論文
1.	Lee, C. K.、Var, T.、Blaine, T. W.(1996)。Determinants of Inbound Tourist Expenditures。Annals of Tourism Research，23(3)，527-542。
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圖書
1.	Canadian Government Office of Tourism(1977)。Methodology for short-term forecasts of tourism flows。Ottawa：Canadian Government, Office of Tourism。
2.	Box, G. E. P.、Jenkins, G. M.、Reinsel, G. C.(1976)。Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control。San Francisco：Holden-Day。

其他
1.	Anonymous(2003)。Industry experts discuss tourism recovery method in China。
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4.	Chien, G. C. L, & Law. R.(2003)。The impact of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome on hotel: A case study of Hong Kong。
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8.	Chu, F. L.(2004)。Forecasting tourism demand: a cubic polynomial approach。
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11.	Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics(2003)。Quarterly National Economic Trends Taiwan Area。
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13.	Gonzalez, P., & Moral, P.(1996)。Analysis of tourism trends in Spain。
14.	Hamdi, R.(2003)。Region battles to get tourists back。
15.	Hara, T., & Saltzman, S.(2003)。The economic impacts of terrorism: An alternative method to quantify the effects on the New York City economy of the 9/11 attack on the World Trade Center。
16.	Jeffrey, D., Barden, R. D., Buckley, P. J., & Hubbard, N. J.(2002)。What makes for a successful hotel? Insights on hotel management following 15 years of hotel occupancy analysis in England。
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19.	Makridakis, S., & Wheelwright, S. C.(1989)。Forecasting methods for management。
20.	Min, J. C. H.(2003)。A study of post-disaster tourist behavior and effective marketing strategies: The case of September 21st Earthquake。
21.	Morley, C. L.(1991)。Modeling international tourism demand: Model specification and structure。
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28.	Turner, L. W., Kulendran, N., & Pergat, V.(1995)。Forecasting New Zealand tourism demand with disaggregated data。
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30.	World Health Organization(2003a)。Weekly Epidemiological Record。
31.	World Health Organization(2003b)。World Health Organization Issues Emergency Travel Advisory。
32.	World Health Organization(2003c)。Taiwan, China: Transmission Interrupted in Last Outbreak Area。
33.	World Health Organization(2003d)。Summary Table of SARS Cases by Country, November 1 2002 - August 7, 2003。
34.	World Tourism Organization(2003)。WTO Warns Against Overreaction to SARS。

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