觀光業是極易受外在負面因素影響之事業，例如：天然災害、戰爭、恐怖攻擊、流行疾病等。然而，現行觀光旅遊管理文獻中，就災難事故後影響旅客旅遊行為所做的研究，與其在旅遊人數上可能改變的情形，以及相關單位在行銷策略上應如何加以因應的深入研究，仍顯不足。因此，本研究之研究目的，以二十世紀台灣最大之天然災害－九二一大地震為例，透過時間數列SARIMA模型，研究地震一年後，整體來華旅客人數的增減趨勢，以之查驗災後旅客真實旅遊行為的變化，並根據研究發現以及在九二一大地震衝擊下，台灣政府和觀光業者所迅速採取之因應措施，建立一災後行銷模型。本研究所建構的行銷策略架構，可作為爾後遭遇重大事件有關當局在恢復自身旅遊市場，以及研擬行銷策略時之參考。

The tourism industry is highly susceptible to negative situations such as natural disasters, wars, terrorist attacks and epidemics. However, studies on tourist behavior relating to the impact of disastrous events or marketing practices in response to serious consequences are still an area that has remained largely neglected and unexamined. The purpose of this study is to assess how international tourists have been affected by the September 21st Earthquake in 1999, the most serious natural disaster in Taiwan of the 20th century. This research establishes one SARIMA model through time series for Taiwan's inbound demand to predict the volume of visitor arrivals after the quake. Furthermore, one tourism recovery model for marketing strategies was built to cope with the consequences of a natural disaster in Taiwan, with the experiences from the September 21st Earthquake and the findings of this study as a basis. As well, it serves as a reference for tourism destinations hoping to attract tourists and thereby respond to the needs in the event of future mishaps.