| 期刊論文| 1. | Bradfield, Ron、Wright, George、Burt, George、Cairns, George、van der Heijden, Kees(2005)。The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning。Futures，37(8)，795-812。   | | 2. | Wack, Pierre(1985)。Scenarios: Shooting the rapids。Harvard Business Review，63(6)，139-150。 | | 3. | Wack, Pierre(1985)。Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead。Harvard Business Review，63(5)，73-89。 | | 4. | Funtowicz, Silvio O.、Ravetz, Jerome R.(1993)。Science for the post-normal age。Futures，25(7)，739-755。 | | 5. | Tversky, Amos、Kahneman, Daniel(1986)。Rational choice and the framing of decisions。The Journal of Business，59(4 Part 2)，S251-S278。 | | 6. | Kaplan, Sarah(2008)。Framing contests: Strategy making under uncertainty。Organization Science，19(5)，729-752。 | | 7. | Wilkinson, Angela、Shirin, Elahi、Eidinow, Esther(2003)。Risk world scenarios。Journal Of Risk Research，4(6)，291-401。 | | 8. | Wilkinson, Angela(2009)。In search of theory。Journal of Futures Studies，13(3)，107-114。 | | 9. | Wilkinson, Angela、Eidinow, Esther(2008)。Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: A new scenario typology 10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/045017。Environmental Research Letters，3。 | | 10. | Normann, Richard、Ramirez, Rafael(1993)。Designing Interactive Strategy: From value chain to value constellation。Harvard Business Review，71(4)，65-77。 | | 11. | Riskworld Scenarios(2003)。Special issue of the journal of risk research6(4-6)。 | 研究報告| 1. | EEA or European Environment Agency(2002)。Late lessons from early warnings: The precautionary principle。 | | 2. | Colander, David、Föllmer, Hans、Haas, Armin、Goldberg, Michael、Juselius, Katarina、Kirman, Alan、Lux, Thomas、Brigitte, Sloth(2009)。The financial crisis and the systemic failure of economists。 | 圖書| 1. | Ackoff, Russell L.(1974)。Redesigning the Future: A Systems Approach to Societal Problems。New York, NY：John Wiley & Sons。 | | 2. | Perrow, Charles(1984)。Normal Accidents: Living with High-Risk Technologies。New York, NY：Basic Books。 | | 3. | Van der Heijden, Kees(2005)。Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation。John Willey and Sons, Ltd.。 | | 4. | Weick, Karl E.(1995)。Sensemaking in Organizations。Sage。 | | 5. | Normann, Richard、Ramirez, Rafael(1994)。Designing interactive strategy: From value chain to value constellation。Chichester。 | | 6. | Ramirez, Rafael、Selsky, John、Van der Heijden, Kees(2008)。Business planning in turbulent times: New methods for applying scenarios。London。 | | 7. | Selsky, John、van der Heijden, Kees、Ramirez, Rafael(2008)。Conclusion: The conjuncture of scenarios and causal textures-contributions and progress。Business planning in turbulent times: New methods for applying scenarios。London。 | | 8. | Starbuck, William(2009)。Cognitive reactions to rare events: Perceptions, uncertainty and learning 10.1287/orsc.1090.0440。Organisational Science。 | | 9. | Van der Heijden, Kees(2010)。Business planning in turbulent times: New methods for applying scenarios (Chapter 15)。London。 | 其他| 1. | Betty, Flowers，Kupers, Roland，Mangalagiu, Diana，Ravetz, Jerome，Ramirez, Rafael，Selsky, John，Wasden, Christopher，Wilkinson, Angela(2009)。The Oxford Scenarios: Beyond the financial crisis，http://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/centres/insis/Documents/beyond-financial-crisis-27jul2009.pdf， 20091130。 | | 2. | FSA(2007)。Financial risk outlook 2007，http://www.fsa.gov.uk/pubs/plan/financial_risk_outlook_2007.pdf， 20091130。 | | 3. | Institute for Science, Innovation and Society(2009)。The Oxford Scenarios: Beyond the Financial Crisis，http://www.insis.ox.ac.uk， 200091130。 | | 4. | IPCC(2007)，http://www.ipcc.ch/， 20091130。 | | 5. | OFF(2008)。Second Oxford Futures Forum，http://www.oxfordfuturesforum.org.uk/， 20091130。 | |