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題名:歐盟地區國家財政赤字維持性的初步探討
書刊名:經濟與管理論叢
作者:陳仕偉 引用關係張正弘
作者(外文):Chen, Shyh-weiChang, Cheng-hong
出版日期:2012
卷期:8:2
頁次:頁191-220
主題關鍵詞:財政赤字維持性單根非線性Fiscal deficitSustainabilityUnit rootNon-linearity
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 點閱點閱:13
This paper examines fiscal sustainability in fifteen European countries. Motivated by the statistical power of the advances in panel unit root tests, we apply these new tools to test whether or not the fiscal imbalance is sustainable in the long run. We also employ the exponential smoothing transition unit root test (ESTAR) to account for the non-linearity of the fiscal imbalance. The empirical evidence shows that the traditional unit roots cannot be rejected at the conventional level, suggesting that the fiscal imbalances for these countries are not stationary processes and are thus unsustainable. Evidence from the panel unit roots shows that the fiscal imbalances of Belgium, Finland, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden are stationary processes. The ESTAR unit root test results show that, except for the Netherlands, fourteen out of fifteen countries are non-linear stationary processes. In sum, the evidence shows that the fiscal imbalances of the fifteen European countries meet their intertemporal long-run budget constraints, implying that these countries have no incentive to default on their debt.
期刊論文
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19.Hadri, Kaddour(2000)。Testing for Stationarity in Heterogeneous Panel Data。Econometrics Journal,3(2),148-161。  new window
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22.Abuaf, Niso、Jorion, Philippe(199003)。Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run。Journal of Finance,45(1),172。  new window
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研究報告
1.Cunado, J., L.、Gil-Alana、F. de Gracia(2002)。Is the US Fiscal Deficit Sustainable? A Fractionally Integrated and Cointegrated Approach。Facultad de Ciencias Economicasy Empresariales Universidad de Navarra。  new window
2.Jayawickrama, A.、T. Abeysinghe(2006)。Sustainability of Fiscal Deficits: The US Experience 1929-2004。  new window
3.Reddy, M.(2006)。Assessing Sustainability of Fiji's Public Debt: A Cointegration Analysis Approach。  new window
 
 
 
 
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