:::

詳目顯示

回上一頁
題名:美國波動度指數與期貨長短期波動不對稱之研究
書刊名:商管科技季刊
作者:李彥賢邱志昌李政毅
作者(外文):Lee, Yen-hsienChiu, Chih-changLee, Cheng-i
出版日期:2012
卷期:13:3
頁次:頁321-337
主題關鍵詞:波動度指數期貨Component GARCH模型不對稱Component GARCH模型長短期波動共整合領先落後VIX futuresComponent GARCH modelAsymmetric component GARCH modelTrend and transitory component volatilitiesCointegrationLead-lag relationship
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:25
本研究期間以2004年3月26日至2011年4月30日之波動度指數現貨與期貨為研究對象,探討兩者間是否具有共整合關係與領先落後的關係,並透過不對稱Component GARCH模型來分析兩者之長短期波動是否存在槓桿效果。實證結果發現經由Johansen共整合檢定波動度指數現貨與期貨間顯示有長期穩定的共整合關係。此外,本研究發現波動度指數現貨領先波動度指數期貨與長期效果大於短期效果。從模型發現加入不對稱可得知波動度指數現貨存在槓桿效果,且具有更好的解釋能力。再者,加入誤差修正項不對稱Component GARCH模型具有更好的解釋能力,並發現加入誤差修正項之不對稱Component GARCH模型為最準確預測波動度指數現貨與期貨之模型。其實證結論給予投資人未來在投資策略上有更大的助益及參考價值。
This study examines the cointegration and lead-lag relationships between VIX and VIX futures from March 26, 2004 to April 30, 2010. The empirical result show the leverage effect in VIX and VIX futures using the asymmetric component GARCH model, and the long-run relationship between VIX and VIX futures by employing the Johansen cointegration test. This study shows that the lead-lag relationship from VIX to VIX futures and the long-run effect have more power than the short-run effect, and the asymmetric component GARCH model has more power than the component GARCH model for the VIX and VIX futures. Furthermore, the asymmetric component GARCH model with the error correction term has more explanatory power than the asymmetric component GARCH model in VIX and VIX futures. This finding is use for investors trading in VIX and VIX futures.
期刊論文
1.Martens, M.、Paul, K.、Tom, C. F. V.(1988)。A threshold error correction model for intraday futures and index returns。Journal of Applied Econometrics,13,245-263。  new window
2.許溪南、王健聰(2004)。Price Expectation and the Pricing of Stock Index Futures。Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting,23(2),167-184。  new window
3.Hansen, Bruce E.、Seo, Byeongseon(2002)。Testing for Two-Regime Threshold Cointegration in Vector Error-Correction Models。Journal of Econometrics,110(2),293-318。  new window
4.申林(2010)。淺析PTA期貨和PTA現貨及原油期貨價格的相關性。現代商業,2010,76-78。  延伸查詢new window
5.Lin, C.、Chen, S.、Hwang, D.(2003)。An Application of Threshold Cointegration to Taiwan Stock Index Futures and Spot Markets。Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies,6,291-304。  new window
6.Zhang, J. E.、Shu, J.、Brenner, M.(2010)。The New Market for Volatility Trading。The Journal of Futures Markets,30(9),809-833。  new window
研究報告
1.Christofferson, P.、Jacobs, K.、Wang, Y.(2006)。Option Valuation with Long-run and Short-run Volatility Components。  new window
學位論文
1.余雅雯(2007)。長期與短期波動下的中國股市模式分析。國立高雄第一科技大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.施雅菁(2003)。小型台指期貨價格之研究。私立淡江大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.紀慧君(2007)。原油現貨、期貨與相關件產業之連動關係。私立淡江大學。  延伸查詢new window
4.郭念青(2009)。波動成分情緒指標與雜訊交易者風險。國立交通大學。  延伸查詢new window
5.蘇義凱(2007)。台股指數現貨與期貨市場波動件之長短期效果及關聯性。私立中原大學。  延伸查詢new window
其他
1.Engle, R. F.,Lee, G. J.(1993)。A Permanent and Transitory Component Model of Stock Return Volatility,San Diego:University of California。  new window
 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top
QR Code
QRCODE