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來源文獻資料
摘要
外文摘要
引文資料
題名:
訊息與外匯市場效率性之研究
書刊名:
輔仁管理評論
作者:
魏祥庭
/
陳秀淋
作者(外文):
Wei, Hsiang Ting
/
Chen, Show-lin
出版日期:
2011
卷期:
18:2
頁次:
頁57-74
主題關鍵詞:
訊息
;
外匯市場效率性
;
News
;
Foreign exchange market efficiency
原始連結:
連回原系統網址
相關次數:
被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
排除自我引用:0
共同引用:0
點閱:18
在本篇研究中,我們考慮了非預期訊息進而檢定歐元兌美元外匯市場的效率性。有別於之前文獻使用的訊息不完整且可能不為真實的訊息,本文是考慮所有美國及歐盟定期公布的相關經濟數據與指標,並定義非預期訊息為數據真實值與預期值之間的差距。本文實證結果指出,在金融海嘯前無法棄卻市場具效率性假說,但此一結果在金融海嘯發生後卻不成立。除此之外,非預期訊息的衝擊確實會影響外匯市場效率性檢定的結果。因此過去文獻無法支持市場效率性假說之原因可能源自於忽略了非預期訊息的考量。另外,我們也發現美國訊息與歐盟訊息存在不對稱的影響力,且市場傾向於忽略歐盟區的數據。
以文找文
In this paper, we examine the hypothesis of market efficiency in euro/dollar with un-anticipated news, which are defined as the difference between actual values and the market’s forecasts. The research data are divided into two periods of time, before and after the beginning of financial crisis. Unlike previous literatures in which the un-anticipated news are incomplete and may be unreal, our paper adopted all macroeconomic announcements and indicators of United States and the European Union. Our results before the financial crisis indicate that the market efficiency hypothesis is accepted, although the result fails to hold after the financial crisis. The result still shows the importance of the un-anticipated news in testing the foreign exchange market efficiency hypothesis. Therefore the rejection of efficiency hypothesis on foreign exchange market in the literature may result from the lack of un-anticipated news in the model. In addition, we found that impacts of U.S. and E.U. un-anticipated news are asymmetric on the exchange rate. Besides, the market participants tend to ignore the E.U. news during both periods of time.
以文找文
期刊論文
1.
Bekaert, G.、Hodrick, R. J.(1993)。On biases in the measurement of foreign exchange risk Premiums。Journal of International Money and Finance,12(2),115-138。
2.
Clarida, R. H.、Taylor, M. P.(1997)。The Term Structure of Forward Exchange Premiums and the Forecastability of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting the Errors。Review of Economics and Statistics,79,353-361。
3.
Luukkonen, R.、Saikkonen, P.、Teräsvirta, T.(1988)。Testing Linearity against Smooth Transition Autoregressive Model。Biometrika,75(3),491-499。
4.
Froot, K. A.、Thaler, R. H.(1990)。Foreign Exchange。Journal of Economic Perspectives,4(3),179-192。
5.
Hansen, Lars Peter、Hodrick, Robert J.(1980)。Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis。Journal of Political Economy,88(5),829-853。
6.
Baillie, R. T.、Lippens, R. E.、Mcmahon, P. C.(1983)。Testing Rational Expectations and Efficiency in the Foreign Exchange Market。Econometrica,51,553-563。
7.
Shen, C. H.(1997)。Testing for Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency- a Trivariate Vector Autoregressive Approach。Applied Financial Economics,7,711-719。
8.
Lai, K. S.、Lai, M.(1991)。A Cointegration Test for Market Efficiency。Journal of Futures Markets,11,567-575。
9.
Fama, Eugene F.(1984)。Forward and Spot Exchange Rates。Journal of Monetary Economics,14(3),319-338。
其他
1.
Apergis N. ; Eleftheriou, S.(1997)。The Efficient Hypothesis and Deregulation: The Greek Case。
2.
Chen, S. W.(2010)。Testing the Hypothesis of Market Efficiency in the Taiwan-US forward Exchange Market since 1990。
3.
Clarida, R.H. ; Taylor, M.P.(1997)。Nonlinear Permanent - Temporary Decompositions in Macroeconomics and Finance。
4.
Clarida, R.H. ; Sarno, L. ; Taylor, M.P. ; Valente, G.(2003)。The out-of-sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond。
5.
Dornbusch, R.(1978)。Monetary Policy under Exchange Rate Flexibility,Boston:Federal Reserve Bank of Boston。
6.
Frenkel, J. A.(1981)。Flexible Exchange Rates, Prices, and the Role of ‘News': Lessons from the 1970s。
7.
Galati, G. ; Ho, C.(2003)。Macroeconomic News and the Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate。
8.
Hakkio, C. S.(1981)。Expectations and the Forward Exchange Rate。
9.
Levich, R. M.(1979)。On the Efficiency of Market for Foreign Exchange,Johns Hopkins University Press。
10.
MacDonald, R. ; Taylor, M. P.(1991)。Risk, Efficiency and Speculation in the 1920s Foreign Exchange Rate: An Overlapping Data Analysis。
11.
Napolitano, O.(2000)。The Efficiency Hypothesis and the Role of ‘News’ in the Euro/British Pound Exchange Rate Market: An Empirical Analysis Using Daily Data,ESCR Research Centre on Micro-social Change, University of Essex, ECASS – European Centre for Analysis in the Social Science。
12.
Poole, W.(1967)。Speculative Prices as Random Walks: An Analysis of Ten Time Series of Flexible Exchange Rates。
13.
Wu, J. L. ; Chen, S. L.(1998)。Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency Revisited。
14.
Zivot, E.(2000)。Cointegration and Forward and Spot Exchange Rate Regressions。
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