「容忍」或「預防攻擊」：核擴散問題下的策略選擇與策略互動_

:::

詳目顯示

第 1 筆 / 總合 1 筆

/1頁

來源文獻資料
摘要
外文摘要
引文資料

題名：	「容忍」或「預防攻擊」：核擴散問題下的策略選擇與策略互動
書刊名：	政治科學論叢
作者：	楊凱皓
作者(外文)：	Yang, Kai-hao
出版日期：	2013
卷期：	55
頁次：	頁119-161
主題關鍵詞：	核擴散；預防攻擊；賽局理論；北韓核武危機；伊拉克戰爭；Nuclear proliferation；Preventive strike；Game theory；North Korea nuclear crisis；Iraq War
原始連結：	連回原系統網址
相關次數：	被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(1) 專書(0) 專書論文(0) 排除自我引用:0 共同引用:2 點閱:31

自核武科技的發展以降，「核擴散」（nuclear proliferation）問題便一直為國際所關注。對特定國家而言，核擴散將因非官方核武國家可能發展或取得核武，而對其安全構成威脅。故對擴散國（proliferator）發展核武潛在可能之因應，便成為其安全戰略的重要一環。可能的因應策略包括容忍並給予經濟誘因、制裁、以及「預防攻擊」（preventive strike）。然而在不同的策略選項間，存在一定程度的取捨關係。本文之目的，即在於探討在此一情境下，影響反擴散國與擴散國所採行之策略的因果機制，將國家的策略選擇與策略互動進一步一般化與理論化，並提供核擴散問題的研究些許理論基礎。本文將以「賽局理論」（Game Theory）之途徑建構核擴散情境下的理論模型，並推導該模型的均衡解，由均衡的「比較靜態分析」（comparative static analysis）進一步延伸理論命題的實質意涵。此外，本文將以「兩次北韓核武危機」、以及「伊拉克戰爭」，作為經驗案例的對照，延伸理論之經驗意涵（empirical implications），並由案例初步驗證所建立並推導的理論模型。本文的研究結果發現，擴散國受到的安全威脅及其技術條件、給予或終止制裁與經濟誘因的條件、反擴散國預防攻擊的成本及其攻擊能力以及雙方之預期將影響此一情境下衝突爆發之可能性。

以文找文

Since the outset of the development of nuclear technology, nuclear proliferation has been a widespread concern in international society. Many states feel that their security is threatened by nuclear proliferation as non-official nuclear states acquire nuclear weapons. Thus, responses toward the proliferators have become an important component of security strategies. Possible responses include granting economic incentives, sanctions, and preventive strikes. However, there is a tradeoff between these strategic choices. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the causal mechanisms that impact the strategic choices of both counter-proliferators and proliferators and to generalize as well as theorize strategic choices and strategic interactions. The paper develops, solves, and analyzes a game-theoretical model to identify equilibrium points, and enumerates the substantive meanings using comparative static analysis. Furthermore, the paper analyzes the cases of the North Korea Nuclear Crisis and Iraq War as empirical counterparts, extending the empirical implications of the theoretical model and provide preliminarily verification for the model. The paper finds that the degree of threat and the technology constraints faced by proliferators, the incentives offered by the counter-proliferators, the cost of launching an attack, the damage caused by an attack, and the expectations of each side affect the likelihood of an outbreak of conflicts under such situations.

以文找文

期刊論文
1.	Ahn, Yinhay(2003)。North Korea in 2002: A Survival Game。Asian Survey，43(1)，49-63。
2.	陳文生(20100300)。人面獅身霸權與核不擴散典則：美國對北韓、伊朗及伊拉克核擴散之處理。政治科學論叢，43，83-118。延伸查詢
3.	Berkowitz, Bruce D.(1985)。Proliferation, Deterrence, and the Likelihood of Nuclear War。Journal of Conflict Resolution，29(1)，112-136。
4.	Baliga, Sandeep、Sjostrom, Tomas(2008)。Strategic Ambiguity and Arms Proliferation。Journal of Political Economy，116(6)，1023-1057。
5.	Asal, Victor、Beardsley, Kyle(2007)。Proliferation and International Crisis Behavior。Journal of Peace Research，44(2)，139-155。
6.	de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno、Riker, William H.(1982)。An Assessment of the Merits of Selective Nuclear Proliferation。The Journal of Conflict Resolution，26(2)，263-302。
7.	Brands, Hal、Palkki, David(2011)。Saddam, Israel, and the Bomb: Nuclear Alarmism Justified?。International Security，36(1)，133-166。
8.	Cha, Victor D.(2002)。Hawk Engagement and Preventive Defense on the Korean Peninsula。International Security，27(1)，40-78。
9.	Feldman, Shai(1982)。The Bombing of Osiraq-Revisited。International Security，7(2)，114-142。
10.	Feaver, Peter D.(1993)。Proliferation Optimism and Theories of Nuclear Operations。Security Studies，2(3/4)，159-191。
11.	Feaver, Peter D.、Niou, Emerson M. S.(1996)。Managing Nuclear Proliferation: Condemn, Strike, or Assist?。International Studies Quarterly，40(2)，209-233。
12.	Haggard, Stephan、Noland, Marcus(2010)。The Political Economy of Denuclearization and Proliferation。Asian Survey，50(3)，539-568。
13.	Jo, Dong-Joon、Gartzke, Erik(2007)。Determinants of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation。Journal of Conflict Resolution，51(1)，167-194。
14.	James, Carolyn C.(2000)。Nuclear Arsenal Games: Coping with Proliferation in a World of Changing Rivalries。Canadian Journal of Political Science，33(4)，723-746。
15.	Huntley, Wade L.(2007)。U.S. Policy toward North Korea in Strategic Context: Tempting Goliath's Fate。Asian Survey，47(3)，455-480。
16.	Howard, Peter(2004)。Why Not Invade North Korea? Threats, Language Games, and U.S. Foreign Policy。International Studies Quarterly，48(4)，805-828。
17.	Kaiser, Karl(1989)。Non-Proliferation and Nuclear Deterrence。Survival，31(2)，123-136。
18.	Levine, Paul、Smith, Ron(2000)。Arms Export Controls and Proliferation。Journal of Conflict Resolution，44(6)，885-895。
19.	Kydd, Andrew(1997)。Game Theory and Spiral Model。World Politics，49，371-400。
20.	Kydd, Andrew(2000)。Arms Race and Arms Control: Modeling the Hawk Perspective。American Journal of Political Science，44(2)，228-244。
21.	Kristensen, Hans M.(2008)。Counterproliferation and US Nuclear Strategy。International Journal，63(4)，803-820。
22.	Lopez, George A.、Cortright, David(2004)。Containing Iraq: Sanctions Worked。Foreign Affairs，83(4)，90-103。
23.	Moriarty, Tom(2004)。Entering the Valley of Uncertainty: The Future of Preemptive Attack。World Affairs，167(2)，71-77。
24.	Montgomery, Alexander(2005)。Ringing in Proliferation: How to Dismantle and Atomic Bomb Network。International Security，30(2)，153-187。
25.	Mearsheimer, John J.(1993)。The Case for a Ukrainian Nuclear Deterrent。Foreign Affairs，72(3)，50-66。
26.	Mazarr, Michael J.(1995)。Going Just a Little Nuclear: NonProliferation Lessons from North Korea。International Security，20(2)，92-122。
27.	Pollack, Jonathan D.(2003)。The United States, North Korea, and the End of the Agreed Framework。Naval War College Review，54(3)，11-49。
28.	Park, Kyung-Ae(2001)。North Korea's Defensive Power and U.S.-North Korea Relations。Pacific Affairs，73(4)，535-553。
29.	Powell, Robert(1996)。Bargaining in the Shadow of Power。Games and Economic Behavior，15，255-289。
30.	Powell, Robert(1996)。Stability and the Distribution of Power。World Politics，48(2)，239-267。
31.	Powell, Robert(1993)。Guns, Butter, and Anarchy。American Political Science Review，87(1)，115-132。
32.	Powell, Robert(1989)。Nuclear Deterrence and the Strategy of Limited Retaliation。American Political Science Review，83(2)，503-519。
33.	Schneider, Barry R.(1994)。Nuclear Proliferation and Counter-Proliferation: Policy Issues and Debates。Mershon International Studies Review，38(2)，209-234。
34.	Sims, Jennifer E.(1991)。The American Approach to Nuclear Arms Control: A Retrospective。Daedalus，120(1)，251-272。
35.	Simpson, John(1994)。Nuclear Non-Proliferation in the Post-Cold War Era。International Affairs，17(1)，17-39。
36.	Waltz, Kenneth N.(1990)。Nuclear Myths and Political Realities。American Political Science Review，84(3)，731-745。
37.	St. John, Ronald B.(2004)。"Libya Is Not Iraq": Preemptive Strikes, WMD and Diplomacy。Middle East Journal，58(3)，386-402。
38.	Spector, L.(1992)。Repentant Nuclear Proliferants。Foreign Policy，88，21-37。
39.	Singh, Sonali、Way, Christopher R.(2004)。The Correlates of Nuclear Proliferation: A Quantitative Test。Journal of Conflict Resolution，48(6)，859-885。
40.	Woods, Matthew(2002)。Reflections on Nuclear Optimism: Waltz, Burke and Proliferation。Review of International Studies，28(1)，163-189。
41.	Burr, William、Richelson, Jeffery T.(2000)。Whether to "Strangle the Baby in the Cradle": The United States and the Chinese Nuclear Program, 1960-64。International Security，25(3)，54-99。
42.	Karl, J. David(1996)。Proliferation Pessimism and Emerging Nuclear Powers。International Security，21(3)，87-119。
43.	Noland, Marcus(2009)。The (Non-) Impact of UN Sanctions on North Korea。Asia Policy，7，61-88。
44.	林益年(2005)。虛假霸權：臺灣政治學研究中的理性選擇。政治科學論叢，25，67-104。延伸查詢
45.	Rubinstein, Ariel(1982)。Perfect equilibrium in a bargaining model。Econometrica，50(1)，97-109。

學位論文
1.	Conway, Paul D.(2003)。Sanctions or Engagement? Designing United States Diplomatic Policy Tools to Confront Nuclear Proliferation in Iran, North Korea, India and Pakistan(博士論文)。Department of Political Science, Brandeis University，Waltham, MA。

圖書
1.	Sagan, S.(2003)。More will be worse。The spread of nuclear weapons: A debate。New York, NY：W.W. Norton。
2.	Sigal, Lecm V.(1998)。Disarming strangers, nuclear diplomacy with North Korea。Princeton, NJ：Princeton University Press。
3.	Office of the Secretary of Defense、高一中(2002)。核生化武器擴散：威脅與回應。台北：國防部史政編譯室。延伸查詢
4.	Dunn, Lewis A.(1991)。Containing Nuclear Proliferation。London：IISS。
5.	Dunn, Lewis A.(1982)。Controlling the Bomb: Nuclear Proliferation in the 1980s。New Haven：Yale University Press。
6.	González-Díaz, Julio、García-Jurado, Ignacio、Fiestras-Janeiro, M. Gloria(2010)。An Introductory Course on Mathematical Game Theory。Providence：American Mathematical Society。
7.	Goldstein, Lyle J.(2006)。Preventive Attack and Weapons of Mass Destruction。Stanford, California：Stanford University Press。
8.	Maerli, Morten Bremer、Lodgarrd, Sverre(2007)。Nuclear Proliferation and International Security。New York：Routledge。
9.	O'Neil, Andrew(2007)。Nuclear Proliferation in North East Asia。New York：Macmillan。
10.	Rauchhaus, Robert、Kroemig, Matthew、Gartzke, Erik(2011)。Causes and Consequences of Nuclear Proliferation。New York：Routledge。
11.	Sagan, Scott D.、Waltz, Kenneth N.(1995)。The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate。New York：W.W. Norton & Company。
12.	Silverstone, Scott A.(2007)。Preventive War and American Democracy。New York：Routledge。
13.	Schneider, Barry R.(2004)。Radical Responses to Radical Regimes: Evaluating Preemptive Counter-Proliferation。Honolulu：University Press of the Pacific。
14.	Morton, Rebecca B.(1999)。Methods and Models: A Guide to the Empirical Analysis of Formal Models in Political Science。New York：Cambridge University Press。
15.	Cha, Victor D.、Kang, David C.(2003)。Nuclear North Korea: A Debate on Engagement Strategies。NY：Columbia University Press。
16.	King, Gary、Keohane, Robert O.、Verba, Sidney(1994)。Designing Social Inquiry: Scientific inference in Qualitative Research。Princeton University Press。

其他
1.	Arms Control Association(2002)。Iraq: A Chronology of UN Inspections，http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2002_10/iraqspecialoct02， 2012/06/25。
2.	Arms Control Association(2012)。Chronology of U.S.-North Korean Nuclear and Missile Diplomacy，http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/dprkchron， 2012/06/25。
3.	Kondoch, Boris(2000)。The Limits of Economic Sanctions under International Law，www.casi.org.uk/info/kondoch01.pdf， 2012/06/23。
4.	Katzman, Kenneth(2002)。Iraq: Compliance, Sanctions, and U.S. Policy，http://www.fas.org/man/crs/IB92217.pdf， 2012/06/25。
5.	Manyin, Mark E.(2007)。U.S. Assistance to North Korea: Fact Sheet，http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RS21834.pdf， 2012/06/25。
6.	Manyin, Mark E.(2005)。Foreign Assistance to North Korea，http://www.fas.org/sgp/crslrow/RL31785.pdf， 2012/06/25。
7.	Niksch, Larry A.(2005)。North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Program，http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/crs/IB91141.pdf， 2012/06/25。
8.	Rennack, Dianne E.(2006)。North Korea: Economic Sanctions，http://www.org/sqp/raw/RL31696.pdf， 2012/06/25。

圖書論文
1.	Benson, Brett V.、Quan, Wen(2011)。A Bargaining Model of Nuclear Weapons。Causes and Consequences of Nuclear Proliferation。New York：Routledge。
2.	Bunn, M. Elaine(2009)。Preemption and WMD Proliferation。Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction: The Future of International Nonproliferation Policy。Athens：University of Georgia Press。
3.	Chang, Semoon(2007)。A Chronology of U.S. Sanctions against North Korea。Economic Sanctions Against a Nuclear North Korea: An Analysis of United States and United Nations Actions Since 1950。Jefferson：McFarland & Company。
4.	Fuhrmann, Matthew(2011)。Taking a Walk on the Supply Side: The Determinants of Civilian Nuclear Cooperation。Causes and Consequences of Nuclear Proliferation。New York：Routledge。
5.	Forland, Astrid(2007)。Preventive War as an Alternative to Treaty-Based Nuclear Non-Proliferation。Nuclear Proliferation and International Security。New York：Routledge。
6.	Goldblat, Jozef(2007)。Ban on Nuclear-Weapon Proliferation in Light of International Law。Nuclear Proliferation and International Security。New York：Routledge。
7.	Gartzke, Eric、Jo, Dong-Joon(2011)。Bargaining, Nuclear Proliferation, and Interstate Disputes。Causes and Consequences of Nuclear Proliferation。New York：Routledge。
8.	Hayes, Peter(2007)。North Korea Proliferation and the End of US Nuclear Hegemony。Nuclear Proliferation and International Security。New York：Routledge。
9.	Kroenig, Matthew(2011)。Importing the Bomb: Sensitive Nuclear Assistnce and Nuclear Proliferation。Causes and Consequences of Nuclear Proliferation。New York：Routledge。
10.	Martel, William C.(2001)。Proliferation and Pragmatism: Opportunities and Risks in the Twenty-First Century。Deterrence and Nuclear Proliferation in the Twenty-First Century。Westport：Praeger Publishers。
11.	Whitty, Michael、Kim, Suk Hi、Crick, Trevor(2007)。The Effectiveness of Economic Sanctions against North Korea。Economic Sanctions Against a Nuclear North Korea: An Analysis of United States and United Nations Actions Since 1950。Jefferson：McFarland & Company。
12.	Waltz, Kenneth N.(2003)。More may be Better。The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed。New York：Norton & Company。
13.	Singer, J. David、Bremer, Stuart、Stuckey, John(1972)。Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power War, 1820-1965。Peace, War, and Numbers。Beverly Hills, California：Sage。

推文
推薦
引用網址
引用嵌入語法
轉寄

top

:::

相關期刊
相關論文
相關專書
相關著作
熱門點閱

1.	伊朗核協議對國際核燃料供應建制發展的影響
2.	和平利用核能之國際造法趨勢--IAEA核燃料循環多邊化倡議的實踐與影響
3.	人面獅身霸權與核不擴散典則：美國對北韓、伊朗及伊拉克核擴散之處理

無相關博士論文

無相關書籍

無相關著作

無相關點閱

QR Code

臺灣人文及社會科學引文索引資料庫系統

詳目顯示

臺灣人文及社會科學引文索引資料庫