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題名:ECFA對「回流臺商」之績效影響--以康師傅控股為例
書刊名:管理實務與理論研究
作者:陳秋蓉黃介良黃峰蕙 引用關係林唯馨
作者(外文):Chen, Chiou-rungHuang, Chai-liangHuarng, Feng-hueihLin, Wei-hsin
出版日期:2013
卷期:7:2
頁次:頁1-24
主題關鍵詞:兩岸經濟合作架構協議回流臺商康師傅控股事件研究法Economic Cooperation Framework AgreementECFAHomecoming Taiwanese enterprisesTing Hisin International GroupEvent study analysis
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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本研究旨於探究海峽兩岸經濟合作架構協議(Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, ECFA)對「回流臺商」之股價效應,以具代表性之「回流臺商」-康師傅控股為研究對象,採事件分析法,以三個重要相關事件日實証驗證ECFA對康師傅控股之臺灣及原上市地(香港)之股價效應。研究結果顯示,ECFA之簽訂對康師傅控股之臺灣及原上市地(香港)股價之效應大抵一致。香港股市與臺灣股市於ECFA第三次協商時(事件日一)皆給予康師傅控股顯著正面評價,且香港股市之反應較臺灣強烈,顯示兩市場於此事件日前後皆一致看好康師傅控股之「後ECFA時代」之前景;而於ECFA簽訂後、立法院三讀通過(事件日二)前,由於朝野共識之不足而使兩市場在信心不足下,皆出現擔心協議無效之顯著負向反應,但臺灣股市於三讀通過後立即回正,顯示投資人於此時仍樂觀看待ECFA簽訂後之康師傅控股的經營績效;最後,臺灣股市於ECFA正式生效(事件日三)後,因未見事前預期之效應,乃修正過度樂觀之態度,轉予康師傅控股顯著負向之評價,而香港股市於ECFA正式生效(事件日三)後,卻轉而呈現不顯著之結果,顯示第三個事件日因接近前一事件日,香港股市對此事件已於前一事件日反應完畢,但此結果亦可能顯示香港股市中有相當比例之投資人,如臺灣投資人般認為成效未如預期,因此修正先前過度樂觀之評價,造成正反面力道勢均力敵,使其股價未呈現顯著異常報酬。
This study purposed to take Tingyi (Cayman Islands) Holding Corporation as the representative sample to investigate the ECFA effects on homecoming Taiwanese enterprises stock prices at three relevant event days by employing Event Study Analysis. To be complete and comparable, this study examined Tingyi stock prices in Taiwan and Hong Gong stock markets simultaneously. Results showed that ECFA effects on stock prices of Tingyi Holding Corporation is quite accordant in Taiwan as well as in Hong Kong (original listed place). Both markets showed significant positive assessments during the third consultative meeting of ECFA (event day 1), Hong Kong stock market in particular. It revealed that these two markets are all optimistic about the prospects for the ”post-ECFA era”. However, before the agreement has gone through the entire three-reading procedure in the Legislative Yuan (event day 2), the opposition threatened to boycott the procedure, which led to the lack of confidence and the two markets showed the negative reflects due to the concern of the invalidity of the agreement. Though, Taiwan stock market showed positive reflect immediately after the three-reading procedure, which means that investors remained optimistic attitude to the operating performance of Tingyi after the signing of ECFA. Finally, Taiwan stock market corrected its' over-optimistic attitude toward Tingyi Holding Corp. after ECFA becomes effective officially (event day 3), while Hong Kong market showed no significant effect after the agreement becomes effective.
期刊論文
1.Beck, T.、Levine, R.(2004)。Stock Markets, Financial intermediaries, and Growth: Panel Evidence。Journal of Banking and Finance,28(3),423-442。  new window
2.Braun, Matias、Raddatz, Claudio(2008)。The Politics of Financial Development: Evidence from Trade Liberalization。The Journal of Finance,63(3),1469-1508。  new window
3.Rajan, Raghuram G.、Zingales, Luigi(2003)。The Great Reversals: The Politics of Financial Development in the Twentieth Century。Journal of Financial Economics,69(1),5-50。  new window
4.Baldwin, Richard E.(1997)。The Causes of Regionalism。The World Economy,20(7),865-888。  new window
5.King, Robert G.、Levine, Ross(1993)。Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right。The Quarterly Journal of Economics,108(3),717-737。  new window
6.Levine, Ross、Loayza, Norman、Beck, Thorsten(2000)。Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes。Journal of Monetary Economics,46(1),31-77。  new window
7.Levine, Ross、Zervos, Sara(1998)。Stock Markets, Banks and Economic Growth。The American Economic Review,88(3),537-558。  new window
8.Bergsten, C. F.(1994)。Sunrise in Seattle。International Economic Insights,5(1),18-20。  new window
學位論文
1.方瑞(2009)。臺商回臺發行存託憑證動機與發行決策關係之研究(碩士論文)。中原大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.李致賢(2010)。ECFA事件宣告與股價關聯性之研究--以我國食品股票上市公司為例(碩士論文)。國立高雄第一科技大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.游清和(2005)。大陸臺商回銷臺灣競爭策略研究--以速食麵產業爲例(碩士論文)。逢甲大學。  延伸查詢new window
4.鄧莓馨(2010)。ECFA對臺北市房地產之影響(碩士論文)。逢甲大學。  延伸查詢new window
5.陳飛宏(2010)。ECFA對兩岸經濟發展之影響--以臺灣食品業爲例(碩士論文)。輔仁大學。  延伸查詢new window
6.戴雄山(2009)。政策大鬆綁對大陸臺商企業回臺上市影響之研究(碩士論文)。國立交通大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Schiff, M.、Winters, L. Alan(2003)。Regional Integration and Development。Oxford:Oxford University Press。  new window
2.Scollay, Robert、Gilbert, John P.(2001)。New Regional Trading Arrangements in the Asia Pacifics?。Washington, DC:Institute for International Economics。  new window
3.Zoellick, R.(20010515)。The United States, Europe and the World Trading System。France, Strasbourg:Kangaroo Group。  new window
其他
1.中華經濟研究院。台灣WTO中心,http://taiwan.wtocenter.org.tw/。  延伸查詢new window
2.台灣證券交易所。公開資訊觀測站,http://mops.twse.com.tw。  延伸查詢new window
3.江晨旭(20100414)。不動產估價師分析ECFA加持,臺灣不動產看漲。  延伸查詢new window
4.何蕙安(20100817)。康師傅上半年淨利增一成。  延伸查詢new window
5.邱馨儀(20100824)。明年大陸事業拚賺錢。  延伸查詢new window
6.徐碧華(20100612)。經部:康師傅可能下半年回流。  延伸查詢new window
7.許玉君(20100612)。又一條鮭魚,經部:康師傅可能回臺設廠。  延伸查詢new window
8.黃彥程(20101109)。政策利多,臺灣資產價値起飛。  延伸查詢new window
9.彭慧明(20100910)。陸企進駐,看得多租得少,http://www_worldjoumal.com/view/full tw/9463650/article。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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