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題名:陸客對我國貿易與就業之影響
書刊名:觀光與休閒管理期刊
作者:練有為鄭素珍 引用關係
出版日期:2013
卷期:1:1
頁次:頁110-123
主題關鍵詞:誤差修正模型Granger因果關係檢定觀光業Error correction modelGranger causality testTourism
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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本研究首先採用歷年之觀光統計年報資料,運用Granger因果關係檢定和誤 差修正模型對大陸來台旅客與貿易和就業做一檢視,估計結果顯示:台灣與世界 之貿易或兩岸貿易總額上升,將增加就業之假說,本文證實二者呈正向關係;陸 客來台愈頻繁,兩岸貿易總額將會增加之假說,本文證實二者沒有顯著正向關係 說明陸客來台並非以貿易為導向;陸客來台人數愈多,服務業就業將會增加之假 說,本文證實二者呈正向關係。2013年1-2月台灣全體之就業人數分別為 10,805,000 和 10,934,000 人。
With the data of tourist of Taiwan, this study adopts Granger causality test and error correction model to exam the relationship among mainland tourist, trade and employment of Taiwan. The results show that trade (both international trade and cross-trait trade) stimulates growth in employment and mainland tourist arrivals to the island. Furthermore, growth in the mainland tourist would not necessary stimulates an increase in international and cross-trait trade. Finally, we adopt VECM to estimate the employment of Taiwan in Jan and Feb of 2013. The figures of these two months are 10.805 million and 10.934 million respectively.
期刊論文
1.Sinclair, M. T.(1998)。Tourism and economic development: A survey。Journal of Development Studies,34(5),1-51。  new window
2.Gray, H. Peter(1966)。The demand for international travel by the United States and Canada。International Economic Review,7(1),83-92。  new window
3.Kulendran, N.、King, Maxwell L.(1997)。Forecasting international quarterly tourist flows using error-correction and time-series models。International Journal of Forecasting,13(3),319-327。  new window
4.Archer, B.、Fletcher, J.(1996)。The economic impact of tourism in the Seychelles。Annals of Tourism Research,23(1),32-47。  new window
5.Granger, C. W. J.(1988)。Some Recent Development in the Concept of Causality。Journal of Econometrics,39(1/2),199-211。  new window
6.Dennis, L. H.、Robert, H. R.(1996)。Assessing Forecast Performance in a Cointegrated System。Journal of Applied Econometrics--Special Issue: Econometric Forecasting,11(5),495-517。  new window
7.Hendry, D. F.(1983)。Econometric modeling: The Consumption Function in Retrospect。Scottish Journal of Political Economy,30,193-220。  new window
8.Jud, G. D.、Joseph, H.(1974)。International demand for Latin American tourism。Growth and Change,5,25-31。  new window
9.Lin, J.-L.、Tsay, R. S.(1996)。Cointegration Constraints an Forecasting: An Empirical Examination。Journal of Applied Econometrics,11,519-538。  new window
10.Rosensweig, J. A.(1986)。Exchange Rates and Competition for Tourists。New England Economic Review,1986(Jul./Aug.),57-67。  new window
11.Sims, C. A.、Stock, J. H.、Watson, M. W.(1990)。Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Koots。Econometrica,40,161-182。  new window
12.Var, T.、Quayson, J.(1985)。The Multiplier Impact of Tourism in the Okanagan。Annals of Tourism Research,12,497-514。  new window
13.Engle, Robert F.、Yoo, Byung Sam(1987)。Forecasting and Testing in Co-Integrated Systems。Journal of Econometrics,35(1),143-159。  new window
14.Dickey, David A.、Fuller, Wayne A.(1981)。Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root。Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society,49(4),1057-1072。  new window
15.Johansen, Søren(1988)。Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors。Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,12(2/3),231-254。  new window
16.Johansen, Søren、Juselius, Katarina(1990)。Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration: with Applications to the Demand for Money。Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,52(2),169-210。  new window
17.Sims, Christopher A.(1980)。Macroeconomics and Reality。Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society,48(1),1-48。  new window
圖書
1.鍾惠民、周賓凰、孫而音(2011)。財務計量:Eviews的運用。臺北:新陸書局股份有限公司。  延伸查詢new window
2.行政院主計處。中華民國國民所得統計年報。台北市:行政院主計處。  延伸查詢new window
3.行政院交通部。觀光統計年報。台北市:主計處。  延伸查詢new window
4.Stynes, D. J.、Propst, D. B.、Chang, W. H.、Sun, Y.(2000)。Estimating Regional Economic Impacts of park Visitor Spending: Money Generation Model Version 2 (MGM2)。East Lansing, MI:Department of Park, Recreation and Tourism Resources, Michigan State University。  new window
單篇論文
1.Stock, J. H.(1995)。Point Forecasts and Prediction Intervals for Horizon Forecasts,J. F. K. School of Government, Harvard University。  new window
圖書論文
1.Lim, Christine(2006)。A survey of tourism demand modeling practice: issues and implications。International Handbook on the Economics of Tourism。Cheltenham:Edward Elgar。  new window
 
 
 
 
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