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題名:以乖離率技術分析定期定額投資策略之研究
書刊名:管理資訊計算
作者:黃錦川 引用關係朱美珍 引用關係陳旻瑋
出版日期:2013
卷期:2:2
頁次:頁36-45
主題關鍵詞:臺灣50定期定額乖離率技術分析Taiwan 50Dollar-cost averagingBiasTechnical analysis
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(1) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:1
  • 共同引用共同引用:2
  • 點閱點閱:25
本研究主要透過乖離率技術分析輔助定期定額投資決策、單線停利投資法與雙線停利投資法之三種投資方法並以臺灣50指數成分股為例,計算年化報酬率並利用統計方法進行績效評比決定最佳投資方法研究。研究結果顯示:(一)採用波動性大乖離率漲跌20%情形下,不論何種投資方法所計算出的年化報酬率結果相近,並無法明顯的獲取股票長期投資的利潤;(二)採用波動性小乖離率漲跌10%情形下,當個股股價上漲時投資者可中途賣出個股進而增加獲利;當個股下跌時,乖離率具有停損效果,讓投資者減少虧損的狀況。而其優劣順序分別為單線停利投資法、雙線停利投資法與定期定額投資法。
This study focuses on the difference between the stocks using Dollar-value averaging strategy and the volatility I the BIAS as the criteria. The research has first shown that large stocks can achieve the highly profitable effect by BIAS 10% realizing profit and cutting loss. Because of large stocks may be short-term rapid limit up to realize profit or rapid limit down to cut loss from next Systematic investment Plan debit. This displays the point of 10% has risk control function. Second, BIAS 20% realizing profit and cutting loss is unable to achieve the highly profitable effect for large stocks. This means it is very difficult to catch BIAS 20% by selecting particular stock from the TAIWAN 50 component stocks. So BIAS 20% almost will not realize profit. As long as gain profit by short-term operation & long-term cash dividend/ stock dividend investment patiently, the rate of return is almost better. By looking at the performance indicators, BIAS10% single realizing profit investment is the better investment strategy.
期刊論文
1.Pye, G.(1971)。Minimax Policies for Selling an Asset and Dollar averaging。Management Science,17(7),379-393。  new window
2.朱美珍、黃錦川、趙師堯(20120600)。定期定額投資股票型基金及龍頭股股票報酬率之比較。管理與資訊學報,17,1-33。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.Rozeff, Michael S.(1994)。Lump-Sum Investing versus Dollar-Averaging。The Journal of Portfolio Management,20(2),45-50。  new window
4.朱美珍、黃錦川、陳惠珍(20111200)。以臺股指數波動探討定期不定額投資策略之研究。管理科學研究,特刊,1-13。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.黃錦川、朱美珍、林貞君(20110900)。定期定額投資基金停損機制之研究。永豐金融季刊,54,43-66。  延伸查詢new window
6.楊念蓁(2012)。存股觀念。Smart智富密技系列雜誌,62,16-17。  延伸查詢new window
7.Dubil, R.(2005)。Lifetime Dollar-Cost Averaging: Forget Cost Saving, Think Risk Reduction。Journal of Financial Planning,18(10),86-90。  new window
8.Sweeney, Richard J.(1998)。Some New Filter Rule Tests: Methods and Results。Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,23,285-300。  new window
9.Szakmary, Andrew、Davidson, W. N. III、Schwarz, T. V.(1999)。Filter Tests in Nasdaq Stocks。Financial Review,34(1),45-70。  new window
學位論文
1.鄭國良(2009)。國內股票基金在景氣循環下定期定額與單筆投資報酬率比較(碩士論文)。世新大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.張淑芬(2005)。定時定額投資停利策略之實證研究(碩士論文)。東海大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.陳映廷(2007)。濾嘴法則與乖離率是否可以獲取超額報酬?--以台灣50指數型基金為例(碩士論文)。國立中興大學。  延伸查詢new window
4.賴怡楨(2011)。定期定額與定期不定額投資策略風險與績效之比較(碩士論文)。逢甲大學。  延伸查詢new window
5.羅禎忠(2009)。共同基金操作策略比較--定期定額與定期不定額投資(碩士論文)。國立高雄應用科技大學。  延伸查詢new window
6.蘇鵬全(2006)。以乖離率及營收資料測試台灣上市股票操作方式之研究(碩士論文)。朝陽科技大學。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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