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題名:價值型選股策略之另類思維:以技術分析運用在我國上市公司價值型選股策略之實證
書刊名:財金論文叢刊
作者:張阜民 引用關係王言 引用關係黃少暘柯俊禎 引用關係
作者(外文):Chang, Fu-minWang, YaleHuang, Shao-yangKo, Jim-chen
出版日期:2014
卷期:20
頁次:頁33-58
主題關鍵詞:價值型投資策略高B/M比技術分析H_scoreValue investment strategyHigh B/M ratioF_scoreTechnical analysis
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價值型投資策略的起源始於“價值投資之父”班傑明.葛拉漢,他認為投資人應買進淨值/巿價比(B/M比)較高的股票。Piotroski(2000)則以九項與基本面相關的基本面訊號總和成一個F_Score的指標,其實證結果發現F_Score值較高的投資組合能產生優於高B/M比投資組合的超額報酬。故本研究以Piotroski(2000)之F_Score為基準,並根據台灣資本市場環境加以修正,除加入現金流量與公司治理變數外,並考量產業面之影響,建立H_SCORE選股策略,以探討H_SCORE選股策略是否能產生優於F_Score選股策略之報酬,之後並採用技術分析中的KD、MACD與RSI,作為操作H_SCORE選股策略所篩選的個股之依據,以比較於加入技術指標後之交易策略是否能有效提升投資組合的報酬。研究結果顯示,H_Score選股策略為一適合長期持有之投資策略,不僅報酬率高,且波動性亦較低,但於加入技術指標後,技術分析並無法有效提升H_Score選股策略之報酬率,出現此結果之原因可能有二:1.技術分析係屬於適合進行短期投資之投資策略,故若運用於中長期報酬之投資策略上,會使技術分析之判斷失準,因而影響到報酬率。2. H_Score選股策略除了根據公司基本面之財務訊號篩選出體質較強之公司外,亦運用B/M比篩選出價值被低估之公司,故運用技術分析來作為買進與賣出時機之判斷並無法提升報酬率。
The idea of value investment strategy came from Benjamin Graham, he believed that investors should buy stocks with higher book-to-market (B/M) ratio. Piotroski (2000) chose nine fundamental-based signals as an aggregate signal measure, F_Score, and showed that a portfolio with higher F_Score outperformed a portfolio with higher B/M ratio. This study, based on Piotroski's (2000) F_Score, is amend as the "H_Score" stock selection strategy to consider the environment of Taiwan stock market with additional variance of cash flow and corporate governance. We also expect that the H_Score stock selection strategy outperforms F_Score stock selection strategy. It also uses three technical indicators: KD, MACD, and RSI as the base of H_Score stock selection strategy manipulation. The result shows that H_Score stock selection strategy is a good strategy for long-term investment, which has higher return and lower volatility. However, our study also show that technical analysis can't improve the return of H_Score stock selection strategy. The reason might include: 1. Technical analysis is more effective in short-term investment, so when we use it in long-term investment, technical analysis couldn't improve the performance. 2. H_Score stock selection strategy not only selects financially strong firms by fundamental-based signals but also selects firms with high B/M ratio, so using technical analysis as the base of this strategy's manipulation cannot improve the performance.
期刊論文
1.李素惠(20110500)。金融類股投資策略分析之實證研究。崇右學報,17(1),217-236。  延伸查詢new window
2.Cho, S. S.、Shin, J. S.、Byun, J.(2012)。The Value of a Two-Dimensional Value Investment Strategy: Evidence from the Korean Stock Market。Emerging Markets Finance & Trade,48,58-81。  new window
3.Abarbanell, J. S.、Bushee, B. J.(1998)。Abnormal Returns to a Fundamental Analysis Strategy。The Accounting Review,73(1),19-45。  new window
4.Brock, William、Lakonishok, Josef、LeBaron, Blake(1992)。Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns。The Journal of Finance,47(5),1731-1764。  new window
5.Bessembinder, Hendrik、Chan, Kalok(1995)。The Profitability of Technical Trading Rules in the Asian Stock Markets。Pacific-Basin Finance Journal,3(2/3),257-284。  new window
6.Fama, Eugene F.、French, Kenneth R.(1992)。The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns。The Journal of Finance,47(2),427-465。  new window
7.Piotroski, Joseph D.(2000)。Value Investing: the Use of Historical Financial Statement Information to Separate Winners from Losers。Journal of Accounting Research,38(1),1-41。  new window
8.Lakonishok, Josef、Shleifer, Andrei、Vishny, Robert W.(1994)。Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk。Journal of Finance,49(5),1541-1578。  new window
9.Chen, Nai-Fu、Zhang, Feng(1998)。Risk and return of value stocks。The Journal of Business,71(4),501-535。  new window
學位論文
1.吳繼先。以財務報表資訊建構投資組合--台灣與中國大陸股市之應用(碩士論文)。中興大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.沈孟軒(2003)。淨値市價比投資策略:財務報表資訊之應用(碩士論文)。國立中正大學,嘉義。  延伸查詢new window
3.葉沛鑫(2012)。基本分析與技術分析之選股策略應用於台灣股票市場(碩士論文)。國立成功大學。  延伸查詢new window
4.謝孟廷(2013)。基本面指標投資策略在特定產業中的績效評估分析--以台灣電子產業爲例(碩士論文)。臺灣大學,台北。  延伸查詢new window
5.陳志彬(2005)。提升技術分析獲利能力之研究--以KD隨機指標為基礎(碩士論文)。國立高雄應用科技大學。  延伸查詢new window
6.張小芳(2005)。以相對強弱指標(RSI)檢測台灣指數選擇權市場價差策略之投資績效(碩士論文)。逢甲大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.吳宗正(2000)。投資技術分析。台北:華泰文化。  延伸查詢new window
2.Benjamin, Graham、俞濟群(1996)。智慧型股票投資人。台北:寰宇。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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