目前，澳門幣僅佔澳門貨幣供應量M2 的24.03% ，港幣、人民幣逐漸成為澳門流通 的強勢貨幣。以相對值指標衡量貨幣替代程度，表明港幣、人民幣對澳門幣的替代效應很大；再 運用ADF檢驗、協整分析、誤差修正模型（VEC）、格蘭傑因果檢驗分析替代效應的影響因素， 結果表明，幸運博彩毛收入、香港及內地貿易總量和澳門幣對人民幣匯率的一階滯後項對貨幣替 代程度有正向衝擊，而貨幣替代率、人民幣與澳門幣利差、港幣與澳門幣利差的一階滯後則有負 向衝擊。澳門貨幣替代效應與香港及內地貿易總量互為格蘭傑因果關係。

Currency substitution means that residents change the holdings of foreign currency due to the opportunity cost. Currently, the proportion of Pataca used for money supply (M2) is only 24.03%, and Hong Kong Dollar, RMB have gradually replaced the Pataca in Macau. Firstly, the paper uses relative indexes to measure the degree of currency substitution in Macau and shows that the degree is very high. Then the ADF Test, Cointegration Analysis, Vector Error Correct Model and Granger Causal Relation Test are used to analyze the factor of the substitution effect. The result shows that first-order lag of lucky lottery revenue, of total trade in Macau with Hong Kong and the mainland and of the Pataca exchange rate against the RMB have positive impacts on currency substitution, and the first-order lag of the currency substitution rate, of the interest margin of Pataca and RMB, of interest margin of Pataca and HK Dollar have negative impacts. Currency the substitution of the Pataca and total trade in Macau with Hong Kong and the mainland have Mutual Granger Causal Relationship, but currency substitution and the interest margin of the Pataca and HK Dollar have no Granger Causal Relationship.