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題名:陸俄戰略合作美陸俄三邊關係的影響:2014年烏克蘭事件的催化作用
書刊名:戰略與評估
作者:郭建中 引用關係黃惠華
作者(外文):Guo, Jiann-jongHuang, Huei-hua
出版日期:2014
卷期:5:3
頁次:頁47-68
主題關鍵詞:守勢現實主義俄羅斯中國大陸中俄戰略合作中美俄三邊關係Defensive realismRussiaChinaSino-Russian strategic cooperationThe trilateral China-US-Russia relations
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本文試以守勢現實主義(Defensive Realism)理論學派觀點,解構2014年陸俄戰略合作的行為與其意涵。2014年1月,烏克蘭爆發內部危機,俄羅斯成功兼併克里米亞半島,歐美國家指控俄羅斯試圖分裂烏克蘭,並紛紛對其採取制裁措施,以限制俄羅斯對鄰國擴張領土的野心。面對此一困境,俄羅斯總統普欽(Vladimir Putin)訪問中國大陸,以舒緩被制裁的壓力。由於美國無法有效說服所有歐盟國家共同參與制裁俄羅斯,反而讓普欽有機會在烏克蘭衝突的策略上保持影響力;而同時位在亞洲的中國大陸,因為反抗或試圖突破美國的「亞洲再平衡」政策,其在領土及海域爭端上對美採取較強硬的態度。此次陸俄升級新階段全面戰略協作夥伴關係,對陸俄而言,不僅可以強化雙邊友好關係,還可以平衡陸俄與美國的三邊緊張關係,此是當前兩國較佳戰略。
This paper tries to apply defensive realism theory toe analyze the new development of 2014 Sino-Russian strategic cooperation and its implications on the trilateral tension between China, Russia and the United States. January of 2014, the outbreak of internal crisis in Ukraine provided Russia an opportunity to merge Crimea peninsula. The United States and Europe accused Russia of trying to split Ukraine and starting to adopt sanction strategies to constrain Russia’s ambition for territorial expansion in itsneighboring countries. Confronting such dilemma, Russian President Vladimir Putin visit to China, seeking for opportunity to reinforcing bilateral relations, in order to relieve the pressure from sanctions. Due to the United States cannot effectively convince all EU countries to participate in sanctions against Russia, which letting Putin have the room to maneuver policy influences on the conflict issue of Ukraine. While at the same time, China, who was trying to resist or attempt to break the United States’ Policy of “Asia Rebalancing”, has adopt a rather tougher attitude toward the United States in the territorial waters dispute. China and Russia in 2014 upgraded the China-Russia strategic cooperative partnership to a new stage, not only strengthen bilateral friendly relations, but also can balance the trilateral tension between China, Russia on the one side, and the United States on the another side, this is the current bilateral preferred strategy for China and Russia.
 
 
 
 
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