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摘要
外文摘要
引文資料
題名:
海難事故肇因關鍵性分析技術之研究
書刊名:
航運季刊
作者:
陳世宗
/
周毓欣
作者(外文):
Chen, Shih-tzung
/
Chou, Yu-hsin
出版日期:
2017
卷期:
26:1
頁次:
頁1-22
主題關鍵詞:
海事安全
;
事故分析
;
因果分析法
;
貝氏網路
;
Maritime safety
;
Accident analysis
;
Why because analysis
;
Bayesian network
原始連結:
連回原系統網址
相關次數:
被引用次數:期刊(
2
) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
排除自我引用:
2
共同引用:0
點閱:0
協助主管機關精準地找出造成海難事故發生之關鍵肇因,一直是從事此項課題研究者未曾間斷的努力方向。本研究旨在提出一系統化的分析流程,用以探討海難事故中涉案肇因之關鍵性的問題。本文所研提之方法係應用「因果分析法(Why Because Analysis, WBA)」解析出涉案肇因以及其間的因果脈絡,並藉由「貝氏網路(Bayesian Network, BN)」之量化分析功能,進一步探討各涉案肇因之關鍵性及其排序。本研究透過一實際海事案例分析,說明本研究系統化分析流程的操作過程,並藉由質性及量化分析的結果,獲取明確之關鍵肇因及其排序結果,在本文中亦有所著墨,藉以驗證此分析法的實用性。希望能藉由本方法的運用,提供主管機關一項有利於探討事故關鍵肇因的分析工具,以有效地避免類似事故的再次發生。
以文找文
Helping the authority to identify the critical casual factors of a marine casualty is always a challenge to the field researchers. This study aims to propose a systematic analytic procedure which applies Why Because Analysis (WBA) and Bayesian Network (BN) to identify the causal factors and their criticalities which were involved in a marine accident. To begin with, this procedure figures out the causal factors and the causality amongst them using Why Because Analysis (WBA), and then a Bayesian Network model is established according to the WBA results. Having the BN model of the accident, the criticalities and the ranking of those causal factors can be acquired via a sensitivity analysis process applied to the BN model. A marine casualty is utilized as the case study to demonstrate the analytic procedure as well as to illustrate the usability and applicability of the proposed method. It is expected that the proposed methodology can be a useful tool to help the decision makers to identify the critical causal factors, and hence the similar accidents can be prevented from happening again more effectively.
以文找文
期刊論文
1.
Ren, J.、Jenkinson, I.、Wang, J.、Xu, D. L.、Yang, J. B.(2008)。A methodology to model causal relationships on offshore safety assessment focusing on human and organizational factors。Journal of Safety Research,39(1),87-100。
2.
Akyuz, E.(2017)。A marine accident analyzing model to evaluate potential operational causes in cargo ships。Safety Science,92,17-25。
3.
Chauvin, C.、Lardjane, S.、Morel, G.、Benoit, J. P.(2013)。Human and organizational factors in maritime accidents: analysis of collision at sea using the HFACS。Accident Analysis & Prevention,59,26-37。
4.
Chen, S. T.、Wall, A.、Davies, P.、Yang, Z.、Wang, J.、Chou, Y. H.(2013)。A Human and Organisational Factors (HOFs) analysis method for marine casualties using HFACS-Maritime Accident (HFACS-MA)。Safety Science,60,105-114。
5.
Eleye-Datubo, A. G.、Wall, A.、Saajedi, A.、Wang, J.(2006)。Enabling a powerful marine and offshore decision-support solution through Bayesian network technique。Risk Analysis,26(3),695-721。
6.
Goerlandt, F.、Montewka, J.(2015)。A framework for risk analysis of maritime transportation systems: a case study for oil spill from tankers in a ship-ship collision。Safety Science,76,42-66。
7.
Li, K. X.、Yin, J. B.、Bang, H. S.、Yang, Z. L.、Wang, J.(2014)。Bayesian network with quantitative input for maritime risk analysis。Transportmetrica A-Transport Science,10(2),89-118。
8.
Ren, J.、Jenkinson, I.、Wang, J.、Xu, D. L.、Yang, J. B.(2009)。An offshore risk analysis method using fuzzy bayesian network。Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering-Transactions of the Asme,131(4)。
9.
Trucco, P.、Cagno, E.、Ruggeri, F.、Grande, O.(2008)。A Bayesian belief network modelling of organisational factors in risk analysis: a case study in maritime transportation。Reliability Engineering & System Safety,93(6),845-856。
10.
Zhang, G. Z.、Thai, V. V.(2016)。Expert elicitation and Bayesian network modeling for shipping accidents: a literature review。Safety Science,87,53-62。
會議論文
1.
Chen, S. T.、Chou, Y. H.(2012)。Examining human factors for marine casualties using HFACS-Maritime Accidents (HFACS-MA)。The 12th International Conference on ITS Telecommunications,(會議日期: 5-8 November, 2012)。Taipei。391-396。
學位論文
1.
周毓欣(2013)。以HFACS-MA架構發展海難事故人因量化方法之研究(碩士論文)。國立臺灣海洋大學,基隆市。
延伸查詢
圖書
1.
Reason, J. T.(1997)。Managing the Risks of Organizational Accidents。Aldershot:Ashgate Publishing Limited。
2.
Stanton, N. A.、Salmon, P. M.、Rafferty, L. A.、Walker, G. H.、Baber, C.、Jenkins, D. P.(2013)。Human Factors methods: A practical guide for engineering and design。Ashgate Publishing Company。
3.
Pearl, J.(1988)。Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible Inference。San Mateo, Calif.:Morgan Kaufinann。
4.
王雙成(2010)。貝葉斯網絡學習、推理與應用。上海市:立信會計出版社。
延伸查詢
5.
Department of Transport(1987)。MV Herald of Free Enterprise: Report of Court 8074, Formal Investigation。London:Her Majesty's Stationary Office。
6.
EUROCONTROL(2005)。EAM2/GU18: Systemic Occurrence Analysis Methodology (SOAM)。Brussels:EUROCONTROL。
其他
1.
ATSB(2007)。Independent Investigation into the Crew Member Fatality on Board the Isle of Man Registered Oil Tanker British Mallard while Berthed in Kwinana, Western Australia (Investigation Report: 235),http://www.atsb.gov.au/publications。
2.
Ladkin, P. B.,Sanders, J.,Paul-Stüve, T.(2005)。The WBA Workbook,http://www.rvs.uni-bielefeld.de/research/WBA/。
3.
RVS(2016)。The Why-Because Analysis Homepage,http://www.rvs.unibielefeld.de/research/WBA/。
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