近年來因國人所得及生活水準的提高，對於休閒旅遊逐漸重視，使得遊憩人數逐年增長。政府為因應此趨勢，需對國內熱門之旅遊景點進行規劃，以滿足國人對於旅遊設施及品質需求。在觀光發展中，旅遊人次的預測是一項重要的工作，近期逐漸被受矚目，因此，若能預測未來之旅客量，便能有效地運用觀光資源，提升遊客之旅遊滿意度。本研究採用10 種分析方法及時間序列模式ARIMA 分析法來預測遊客量，預測準確度採用MAPE進行比較，藉掌握連江縣之旅遊人數的變化，俾作為連江縣未來觀光發展規劃的依據。

The people's income and living standards were improve in recent years. The number of tourist were increased year by year. Government must to plan and to satisfy people for tourism facilities and quality requirements. The forecasting of tourist number is an important job, it also were attended gradually. If it can predict passenger number, and then we will control the effective use of tourism resources in the future, as well as the promotion of tourism satisfaction tourists. In this study, ten prediction methods and time series analysis of ARIMA model were used to predict the tourist number. MAPE was used to compare the forecast accuracy. Finally, we can understand the changes of tourist number and can plan in the future.