| 期刊論文1. | Molitor, Graham T. T.(20030800)。Molitor Forecasting Model: Key Dimensions for Plotting the "Patterns of Change"。Journal of Futures Studies,8(1),61-71。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 2. | Inayatullah, Sohail(2012)。Humanity 3000: a comparative analysis of methodological approaches to forecasting the long-term。Foresight,14(5),401-417。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 3. | Huisman, R.、Koedijk, K. G.、Pownall, R. A. J.(1998)。VaR-x: Fat Tails in Financial Risk Management。Journal of Risk,1(1),47-61。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 4. | D'Argembeau, A.、Van der Linden, M.(2004)。Phenomenal characteristics associated with projecting oneself back into the past and forward into the future: Influence of valence and temporal distance。Consciousness and Cognition,13(4),844-858。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 5. | Adizes, Ichak(1979)。Organizational Passages: Diagnosing and Treating Lifecycle Problems of Organizations。Organizational Dynamics,8(1),3-25。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 6. | Farriss, N. M.(1987)。Remembering the Future, Anticipating the Past: History, Time, and Cosmology among the Maya of Yucatan。Comparative Studies in History and Society,29(3),566-593。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 7. | Fernández, Carmen、Steel, Mark F. J.(1998)。On bayesian modeling of fat tails and skewness。Journal of the American Statistical Association,93(441),359-371。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 8. | Bartov, E.、Bodnar, G. M.(1996)。Alternative accounting methods, information asymmetry and liquidity: Theory and evidence。The Accounting Review,71(3),397-418。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 9. | Beckman, R. J.、Cook, R. D.(1983)。Outlier...s。Technometrics,25(2),119-149。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 10. | Pendall, R.、Foster, K. A.、Cowell, M.(2010)。Resilience and regions: Building understanding of the metaphor。Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society,3(1),71-84。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 11. | Molitor, Graham T. T.(1999)。The Next 1,000 Years: The "Big Five" Engines of Economic Growth。The Futurist,33(10),13-18。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 12. | Bussey, Marcus(20150900)。Intuition, Rationality and Imagination。Journal of Futures Studies,20(1),139-147。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 13. | List, D.(2006)。Action research cycles for multiple futures perspectives。Futures,38(6),673-684。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 14. | Andrieux, D.、Gaspard, P.(2007)。A fluctuation theorem for currents and non-linear response coefficients。Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment,2007(2),P02006。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 15. | (2018)。Asymmetry symposium unites economists, physicists and artists。Nature Editorial,555(7697),414。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 16. | Bassis, J. N.(2011)。The statistical physics of iceberg calving and the emergence of universal calving laws。Journal of Glaciology,57(201),3-16。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 17. | Benoit, R. G.、Davies, D. J.、Anderson, M. C.(2016)。Reducing future fears by suppressing the brain mechanisms underlying episodic simulation。Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,113(52),E8492-E8501。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 18. | Chen, T.、Liu, X.、Lu, W.(2007)。Pinning complex networks by a single controller。IEEE Transactions on Circuits and Systems I: Regular Papers,54(6),1317-1326。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 19. | Davis, G. A.(2017)。A history of McMurdo Station through its architecture。Polar Record,53(2),167-185。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 20. | Dator, J.(2017)。Time, the Future, and Other Fantasies。World Futures Review,9(1),5-16。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 21. | Eggertsson, G. B.(2008)。Great Expectations and the End of the Depression。American Economic Review,98(4),1476-1516。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 22. | Galam, S.(2011)。Collective beliefs versus individual inflexibility: The unavoidable biases of a public debate。Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,390(17),3036-3054。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 23. | Galtung, J.(2017)。Bringing in the Future: An Essay on Time。World Futures Review,9(1),17-18。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 24. | Galtung, J.、Inayatullah, S.(1999)。Macrohistory and macrohistorians: Perspectives on Individual, Social and Civilizational Change。Futurics,23(3/4)。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 25. | Geels, F. W.(2007)。Analysing the breakthrough of rock 'n'roll (1930-1970) Multi-regime interaction and reconfiguration in the multi-level perspective。Technological Forecasting and Social Change,74(8),1411-1431。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 26. | Geman, D.、Geman, H.、Taleb, N.(2015)。Tail risk constraints and maximum entropy。Entropy,17(6),3724-3737。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 27. | Gerlach, K.、Spreng, K.、Madore, P.、Schacter, D.(2014)。Future Planning: Default Network Activity Couples with Frontoparietal Control Network and Reward-Processing Regions during Process and Outcome Simulations。Social Cognitive and Affective Neuroscience,9(12),1942-1951。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 28. | Gigerenzer, G.(2009)。Making sense of health statistics。World Health Organization,87(8),567-567。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 29. | Gigerenzer, G.(2014)。How I got started: Teaching physicians and judges risk literacy。Applied Cognitive Psychology,28(4),612-614。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 30. | Groot, R. D.、Rabone, K. L.(2001)。Mesoscopic simulation of cell membrane damage, morphology change and rupture by nonionic surfactants。Biophysical journal,81(2),725-736。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 31. | Gunnarsson-Östling, U.(2011)。Gender in futures: A study of gender and feminist papers published in Futures, 1969-2009。Futures,43(9),1029-1039。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 32. | Hamada, H.、Meno, C.、Watanabe, D.、Saijoh, Y.(2002)。Establishment of vertebrate left-right asymmetry。Nature Reviews Genetics,3(2)。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 33. | Holbrook, M. B.(2003)。Adventures in complexity: An essay on dynamic open complex adaptive systems, butterfly effects, self-organizing order, coevolution, the ecological perspective, fitness landscapes, market spaces, emergent beauty at the edge of chaos, and all that jazz。Academy of Marketing Science Review,6(1),1-184。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 34. | Kelly, B.、Jiang, Hao(2014)。Tail risk and asset prices。The Review of Financial Studies,27(10),2841-2871。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 35. | Mills, D. Q.(2001)。Who's to Blame for the Bubble?。Harvard Business Review,79(5),22-23。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 36. | Molitor, G. T.(2001)。Emerging economic sectors in the third millennium: A pit stop on the path to cleaner energy。Foresight,3(1),47-57。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 37. | O'Connor, M.、Remus, W.、Griggs, K.(2001)。The asymmetry of judgemental confidence intervals in time series forecasting。International Journal of Forecasting,17(4),623-633。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 38. | Rhemann, M. K.(2017)。How Understanding Disruptions in the Mobile Wireless Computing Market Can Help Us Anticipate and Create a Healthier Smallsat Market。New Space,5(1),27-32。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 39. | Rhemann, M.(2018)。Understanding Disruption through Molitor's Models。World Futures Review,10(1),34-37。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 40. | Rhemann, M.(2018)。Deepening Futures with Neuroscience。World Futures Review,10(2),1-18。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 41. | Romanowski, M.(1996)。Problems of bias in history textbooks。Social Education,60,170-173。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 42. | Schier, A. F.(2003)。Nodal signaling in vertebrate development。Annual Review of Cell and Developmental Biology,19(1),589-621。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 43. | Singer, M.(1996)。The big picture of Herman Kahn。Futures,28(8),783-785。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 44. | Venkatesh, S.(1986)。On the deterioration of a grounded iceberg。Journal of Glaciology,32(111),161-167。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 45. | Wade, R.(2009)。From global imbalances to global reorganisations。Cambridge journal of economics,33(4),539-562。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 46. | Zhang, C.、Ko, S. H.、Su, M.、Leng, Y.、Ribbe, A. 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A.(2016)。Anterior hippocampus: the anatomy of perception, imagination and episodic memory。Nature Reviews Neuroscience,17(3)。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 48. | Voros, Joseph(2003)。A generic foresight process framework。Foresight,5(3),10-21。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 49. | Ilmola, Leena、Kuusi, Osmo(2006)。Filters of weak signals hinder foresight: Monitoring weak signals efficiently in corporate decision-making。Futures,38(8),908-924。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 50. | Zaltman, Gerald(1996)。Metaphorically Speaking。Marketing Research Forum,8(2),13-20。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 51. | Maslow, Abraham H.(1943)。A Theory of Human Motivation。Psychological Review,50(4),370-396。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 52. | Sardar, Ziauddin(2010)。Welcome to postnormal times。Futures,42(5),435-444。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 53. | Inayatullah, Sohail(2008)。Six Pillars: futures thinking for transforming。Foresight,10(1),4-21。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 54. | Gigerenzer, Gerd、Gaissmaier, Wolfgang(2011)。Heuristic Decision Making。Annual Review of Psychology,62,451-482。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 圖書1. | Toffler, Alvin(1971)。Future Shock。New York:Bantam Books。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 2. | Inayatullah, Sohail(2004)。The causal layered analysis (CLA) reader: Theory and case studies of an integrative and transformative methodology。Taipei:Tamkang University Press。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 3. | Singer, P. W.(2009)。Wired For War: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century。Penguin。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 4. | Sarkar, D.(2008)。Lattice: Multivariate data visualization with R。Springer Science+Business Media。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 5. | Inayatullah, Sohail(2002)。Understanding Sarkar: The Indian Episteme, Macrohistory and Transformative Knowledge。Leiden:Brill。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 6. | Inayatullah, Sohail(2005)。Questioning the future: Methods and tools for organizational and societal transformation。Tamkang University Press。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 7. | Dent, H. S.(2011)。The great crash ahead: Strategies for a world turned upside down。Black Inc.。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 8. | Ferguson, N.(2008)。The pity of war: Explaining world war。Hachette。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 9. | Foucault, Michel(2013)。Archaeology of knowledge。Routledge。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 10. | Foucault, M.(2013)。Archaeology of knowledge。Chicago:Pickle Partners。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 11. | Gell-Mann, M.、Fritzsch, H.(2010)。Murray Gell-Mann: Selected Papers。World Scientific。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 12. | Gigerenzer, G.、Stainton, R. J.(2006)。Contemporary Debates in cognitive science。Carlton, Victoria:Blackwell Publishing。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 13. | Kahn, H.(2017)。On escalation: Metaphors and scenarios。New York, NY:Routledge。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 14. | Schwarz, D. R.(1997)。Reconfiguring modernism: explorations in the relationship between modern art and modern literature。New York:St. Martin's Press。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 15. | Sorokin, P.(2017)。Social and cultural dynamics: A study of change in major systems of art, truth, ethics, law and social relationships。Routledge。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 16. | Taleb, Nassim(2018)。Skin in the Game。New York:Penguin Random House。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 17. | Thompson, M. Terry、Egesdal, Steven M.(2008)。Salish myths and legends: One people's stories。U of Nebraska Press。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 18. | Wilber, K.(2001)。The eye of spirit: An integral vision for a world gone slightly mad。Shambhala Publications。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 19. | Kahneman, Daniel、Egan, P.(2011)。Thinking, Fast and Slow。New York:Farrar, Straus and Giroux。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 單篇論文1. | Adizes, I.(1990)。Corporate lifecycles: How and why corporations grow and die and what to do about it。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 圖書論文1. | Bussey, M.(2017)。Anticipatory Aesthetics: New Identities and Future Senses。The Aesthetics of Development。New York:Palgrave Macmillan。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | 2. | Zimbardo, P. G.、Boyd, J. N.(2015)。Putting time in perspective: A valid, reliable individual-differences。Time perspective theory: review, research and application。Cham:Springer。 ![](/gs32/thssjcncl/image/nclsfx.gif) ![new window](/gs32/images/newin.png) | |