Futures Fallacies: What They Are and What We Can Do about Them__臺灣人文及社會科學引文索引資料庫

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題名：	Futures Fallacies: What They Are and What We Can Do about Them
書刊名：	Journal of Futures Studies
作者：	Milojević, Ivana
出版日期：	2021
卷期：	25:4
頁次：	頁1-15
主題關鍵詞：	Predictable irrationality；Futures thinking；Policy strategies；Narrative foresight
原始連結：	連回原系統網址
相關次數：	被引用次數:期刊(2) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0) 排除自我引用:1 共同引用:0 點閱:0

期刊論文
1.	Gough, N.(1990)。Futures in Australian Education: tacit, token and taken for granted。Futures，22(3)，298-311。
2.	Buckner, Randy L.、Carroll, Daniel C.(2007)。Self-projection and the brain。Trends in Cognitive Sciences，11(2)，49-57。
3.	Atance, C. M.、O'Neill, D. K.(2001)。Episodic future thinking。Trends in cognitive sciences，5(12)，533-539。
4.	Bar, Moshe(2009)。The proactive brain: memory for predictions。Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Socity of London. Series B, Biological Sciences，364(1521)，1235-1243。
5.	Boniwell, I.、Zimbardo, P.(2003)。Time to find the right balance。The Psychologist，16(3)，129-131。
6.	Milojević, I.、Inayatullah, S.(2015)。Narrative Foresight。Futures，73，151-162。
7.	Chen, Kuo-Hua(2016)。Linking metaphors of the future with socio-cultural prospects among Taiwanese high school students。Futures，84(B)，178-185。
8.	Duan, Jinyun、Wu, Sherry J.、Sun, Luying(2017)。Do the Powerful Discount the Future Less? The Effects of Power on Temporal Discounting。Frontiers in Psychology，8。
9.	Ahvenharju, Sanna、Minkkinen, Matti、Lalot, Fanny(2018)。The five dimensions of Futures Consciousness。Futures，104，1-13。
10.	Ahmed, Arif(2018)。Rationality and Future Discounting。Topoi: An International Review of Philosophy，39，245-256。
11.	Bale, J. M.(2007)。Political paranoia v. political realism: On distinguishing between bogus conspiracy theories and genuine conspiratorial politics。Patterns of Prejudice，41，45-60。
12.	Chamberlin, Jamie(2008)。The time of our lives。Monitor on Psychology，39(9)。
13.	Chapman, Gretchen B.、Elstein, Arthur S.(1995)。Valuing the future: Temporal discounting of health and money。Medical Decision Making，15(4)，373-386。
14.	Dorr, Adam(2017)。Common errors in reasoning about the future: Three informal fallacies。Technological Forecasting & Social Change，116，322-330。
15.	Farmer, J. Doyne、Geanakoplos, John、Masoliver, Jaume、Montero, Miquel、Perelló, Josep(2015)。Value of the future: Discounting in random environments。Physical Review E，91(5)。
16.	Hershfield, Hal E.、Goldstein, Daniel G.、Sharpe, William F.、Fox, Jesse、Yeykelvis, Leo、Carstensen, Laura L.、Bailenson, Jeremy N.(2019)。Increasing Saving Behavior Through Age-Progressed Renderings of the Future Self。Journal of Marketing Research，48，23-37。
17.	Hoos, Ida R.(1977)。Some fallacies in futures research。Technological Forecasting and Social Change，10(4)，335-344。
18.	Hudson, Judith A.、Mayhew, Estelle M. Y.、Prabhakar, Janani(2011)。The Development of Episodic Foresight: Emerging Concepts and Methods。Advances in Child Development and Behavior，40，95-137。
19.	Izgarjan, Aleksandra、Djurić, Dubravka(2016)。Metaphors of the future and the power of images in the British TV drama Spooks。Futures，84(B)，154-162。
20.	Judge, Anthony(2016)。Metaphor as fundamental to future discourse。Futures，84(B)，115-119。
21.	Klinger, E.、Cox, W. M.(1987)。Dimensions of thought flow in everyday life。Imagination, Cognition, and Personality，7(2)，105-128。
22.	Lewandowsky, Stephan、Gignac, Gilles E.、Oberauer, Klaus(2013)。The Role of Conspiracist Ideation and Worldviews in Predicting Rejection of Science。PLoS One，8(10)。
23.	Milojević, Ivana(2017)。Introduction by the special editor to the symposium on gaming futures。Journal of Futures Studies，22(2)，1-4。
24.	Milojević, I.(20200718)。Futures fallacies: Our common delusions when thinking about the future。Journal of Futures Studies Perspectives。
25.	Pezzo, Stephanie P.、Pezzo, Mark V.、Stone, Eric R.(2006)。The social implications of planning: How public predictions bias future plans。Journal of Experimental Social Psychology，42(2)，221-227。
26.	Ramos, José(20171200)。FuturesLab: Anticipatory Experimentation, Social Emergence and Evolutionary Change。Journal of Futures Studies，22(2)，107-118。
27.	Sheffer, Christine E.、Mackillop, James、Fernandez, Arislenia、Christensen, Darren、Bickel, Warren K.、Johnson, Matthew W.、Panissidi, Luana、Pittman, Jami、Franck, Christopher T.、Williams, Jarrett、Mathew, Merlin(2016)。Initial examination of priming tasks to decrease delay discounting。Behavioural Processes，128，144-152。
28.	Stein, Jeffrey S.、Wilson, A. George、Koffarnus, Mikhail N.、Daniel, Tinuke Oluyomi、Epstein, Leonard H.、Bickel, Warren K.(2016)。Unstuck in time: Episodic future thinking reduces delay discounting and cigarette smoking。Psychopharmacology，233(21/22)，3771-3778。
29.	Suddendorf, Thomas(2010)。Episodic memory versus episodic foresight: Similarities and differences。Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Cognitive Science，1(1)，99-107。
30.	Sweeney, John A.(20171200)。Game on: Foresight at Play with the United Nations。Journal of Futures Studies，22(2)，27-40。
31.	Tarasti, Eero(2016)。Metaphors, semiotics and futures studies。Futures，84(B)，120-123。
32.	van Prooijen, Jan-Willem、Douglas, Karen M.(2018)。Belief in conspiracy theories: Basic principles of an emerging research domain。European Journal of Social Psychology，48(7)，897-908。
33.	Weick, Mario、Guinote, Ana(2010)。How long will it take? Power biases time predictions。Journal of Experimental Social Psychology，46(4)，595-604。
34.	Milojević, I.(2003)。Hegemonic and marginalised utopias in the contemporary western world。Policy Futures in Education，1(3)，440-466。
35.	Candy, Stuart、Dunagan, Jake(2017)。Designing an experiential scenario: The People Who Vanished。Futures，86，136-153。
36.	Hodgson, Geoffrey M.(2010)。Choice, habit, and evolution。Journal of Evolutionary Economics，20(1)，1-18。
37.	Simon, Herbert A.(1991)。Bounded Rationality and Organizational Learning。Organization Science，2(1)，125-134。
38.	Tulving, E.(1985)。Memory and consciousness。Canadian Psychology，26(1)，1-12。
39.	Wheeler, M. A.、Stuss, D. T.、Tulving, E.(1997)。Toward a theory of episodic memory: The frontal lobes and autonoetic consciousness。Psychological Bulletin，121(3)，331-354。
40.	Zimbardo, P. G.、Boyd, J. N.(1999)。Putting time in perspective: A valid, reliable individual-differences metric。Journal of Personality and Social Psychology，77(6)，1271-1288。
41.	Hollinshead, Michael(2002)。The Brain, the Mind, and Societal and Cultural Learning: the Emergence of A New Paradigm of Futures Research。Futures，34(6)，509-521。
42.	Boulding, Elise(1988)。Image and Action in Peace Building。Journal of Social Issues，44(2)，17-37。

會議論文
1.	Troumbley, R.、Yim, S.、Frey, H.(2011)。The Future in 25 Years, 1976-1989: Continuities, cycles, and novelties。The 21st World Futures Studies Federation Conference/Global Higher Education Forum，(會議日期: 2011/12/13-12/15)。Penang。

研究報告
1.	Kahneman, Daniel、Tversky, Amos(1977)。Intuitive prediction: Biases and corrective procedures。Decision research, a branch of perceptronics。

圖書
1.	Adam, Barbara Elisabeth(1998)。Timescapes of modernity: The Environment and Invisible Hazards。Routledge。
2.	Rifkin, Jeremy(1987)。Time Wars. The Primary Conflict in Human History。New York：Henry Holt and Company。
3.	Stone, H.、Stone, S. L.(1989)。Embracing our selves: the voice dialogue manual。Novato, California：New World Library。
4.	Ariely, Dan、Jones, S.(2010)。The Upside of Irrationality: The Unexpected Benefits of Defying Logic at Work and at Home。New York：HarperCollins。
5.	Stone, Deborah A.(2012)。Policy Paradox: The Art of Political Decision Making。W. W. Norton & Company, Inc.。
6.	Cohen, B. C.(1963)。The press and foreign policy。Princeton, NJ：Princeton University Press。
7.	Inayatullah, Sohail(2015)。What works: Case studies in the practice of foresight。Tamsui：Tamkang University Press。
8.	Milojević, I.(2013)。Breathing: Violence in, peace out。Brisbane：University of Queensland Press。
9.	Ariely, Dan(2009)。Predictably irrational: The hidden forces that shape our decisions。New York：Harper Collins。
10.	Cohen, S.(2001)。States of denial: Knowing about atrocities and suffering。Cambridge, UK：Polity Press。
11.	Miller, Riel(2018)。Transforming the future: anticipation in the 21st Century。Routledge。
12.	Inayatullah, Sohail(2004)。The Causal Layered Analysis Reader: Theory and Case Studies of an Integrative and Transformative Methodology。Tamkang University Press。
13.	Byford, J.(2011)。Conspiracy theories: A critical introduction。Palgrave Macmillan。
14.	Cialdini, R.(2016)。Pre-suasion: A revolutionary way to influence and persuade。Simon & Schuster。
15.	Dator, J.(2019)。Personal communication。
16.	Gilbert, D.(2007)。Stumbling on happiness。Vintage books. Random House。
17.	Kahneman, D.(2011)。Thinking, fast and slow。Penguin books, Random House。
18.	Krawczyk, D. C.(2018)。Reasoning: The neuroscience of how we think。Academic Press, Elsevier。
19.	Milojević, I.(2005)。Educational futures: Dominant and contenting visions。Routledge。
20.	Rosling, H.(2018)。Factfulness: Ten reasons we're wrong about the world and why things are better than you think。Sceptre。
21.	Spengler, O.(1918)。The decline of the west。Geroge Allen & Unwin Ltd.。
22.	Taleb, Nassim Nicholas(2007)。The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable。Random House。

其他
1.	Dator, J.(1989)。Twenty minutes into the future. Presentation to the Virginia assembly on the future of the courts，http://www.futures.hawaii.edu/publications/courts/VaCts20minInFut1989.pdf。
2.	McCauley, Dana(20191221)。Australia "absolutely" must take more action on climate change: Michael McCormack，https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-absolutely-must-take-more-action-on-climate-change-michael-mccormack-20191221-p53m3s.html。
3.	Molloy, Shannon(20191222)。Scott Morrison rules out changes to government’s climate change policies amid bushfire crisis，https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/climate-change/scott-morrison-rules-out-changes-to-governments-climate-change-policies-amid-bushfire-crisis/news-story/eca3f65457902d834e033ec30f153c4c。
4.	Murphy, Katharine(20191111)。Dear Michael McCormack: The only "raving lunatics" are those not worrying about climate change，https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/11/dear-michael-mccormack-the-only-raving-lunatics-are-those-not-worrying-about-climate-change。
5.	Nelson, Camilla，Vertigan, Meg(20191006)。Why are powerful men so scared of Greta Thunberg?，https://www.independent.co.uk/news/long_reads/women/greta-thunberg-climate-change-crisis-strike-austism-misogyny-protest-speech-a9127971.html。
6.	O'Sullivan, Matt(20130219)。BrisConnections crashes after bankers pull the pin，https://www.smh.com.au/business/brisconnections-crashes-after-bankers-pull-the-pin-20130219-2eor1.html。
7.	Procter, T.(20180226)。How did it get to this? Project risk versus company liability，https://r2a.com.au/get-project-risk-versus-reliability/。
8.	Rubin, Debra K.(20180102)。Arup settles 1.7b Australia toll road revenue forecast suit，https://www.enr.com/articles/43707-arup-settles-17b-australia-toll-road-revenue-forecast-suit。
9.	Sword, Rosemary K. M.，Zimbardo, Philip(20160730)。The importance of our time perspective. The genesis of Zimbardo's time perspective theory and therapy，https://www.psychologytoday.com/au/blog/the-time-cure/201607/the-importance-our-time-perspective。
10.	Thomson, Ken(20191114)。Government have ignored the warnings of fire chiefs on bushfires. There is no more time to waste，https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/14/we-have-warned-governments-for-years-that-climate-change-is-worsening-bushfire-danger。
11.	Wiggins, Jenny(20171227)。A stretch too far: how Arup was brought to the brink by Airport Link，https://www.afr.com/companies/a-stretch-too-far-how-arup-was-brought-to-the-brink-by-airport-link-20171219-h06zry。
12.	Zhou, Naaman(20191114)。Former Australian fire chiefs say Coalition ignored their advice because of climate change politics，https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/14/former-australian-fire-chiefs-say-coalition-doesnt-like-talking-about-climate-change。

圖書論文
1.	Milojević, I.(1999)。Feminising futures studies。Rescuing all our futures: The future of futures studies。Adamantine。
2.	Moore, C.、Lemmon, K.(2001)。The nature and utility of the temporally extended self。The self in time: Developmental perspectives。Lawrence Erlbaum。
3.	Popper, K. R.(1972)。The conspiracy theory of society。Conspiracy theories: The philosophical debate。Ashgate。
4.	Szpunar, Karl K.、Tulving, Endel(2011)。Varieties of future experience。Predictions in the brain: Using our past to generate a future。Oxford University Press。

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