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題名:臺灣地區小汽車成長預測模式之建立
書刊名:中國統計學報
作者:藍武王林麗玉
出版日期:1991
卷期:29:1
頁次:頁49-75
主題關鍵詞:小汽車成長預測臺灣地區模式
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
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  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(6) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:6
  • 共同引用共同引用:1
  • 點閱點閱:37
小汽車成長之預測不僅可作為運輸部門重要施政及管制措施之參據,對於國家總體能源政策、土地使用計劃、汽車工業發展等政府部門亦很重要。本文以民國41年至76年台灣地區小汽車總車輛數為因變變,影響小汽車成長之社經因素自變數,建立多元迴歸模式。模式構建過程包括模式型態認定、自變數之選擇相關分析、模式參數校估、殘差變異同質性檢定、自我相關檢定等,最後得到最佳線性不偏性(BULE)之預測模式。本預測模式僅包括四項最重要之自變數:公路高級路面里程數、小汽車購置能力(以國民生產毛額除以小汽車價格表示)、小汽車進口關稅及購車自備停車位之虛擬變數,其中自變數與小汽車總數多呈非線性關係。此外,本文亦利用逐步迴歸分析加上先驗知識判斷,建立逐步迴歸模式。經輸入七十七、七十入年自變數資料由模式求得預測值,再與實際值及國內其他小汽車預測模式之預測結果相比較,發現本文所建立之二模式其預測準確度較佳,但仍有低估現象,顯示近兩年來小汽車正處於急速成長階段,除本文構建預測棋式所含蓋之說明變量,可能尚有短期簡易計量之因素影響汽車之急迫成長,值得進一步研究。
Precisely forecasting the growth passcnger cars usually plays an important role on policy planning in the t1'ansportation sector. Other public sectors may also need such forecasted data to develop related policies such as national energy poliey land-use policy, and vehicle industry development. This paper constructs a multple regression model to forecast the growth of passenger cars in Taiwan Area. Time series data frorn 1952 through 1987 including the nurnber of passenger cars and the socio-economic factors affecting the ownership of passenger cars are used to calibrate this model. Details of the model construction procedures are described, including priori causal relationship analysis, function form identification. correlation analysis, model estimation, homoscedasticity test, and autocorrelation test. A BLUE fore­casting model is finally obtained in which four explanatory variables-length of paved highway, car purchasing ability (GNP/car price), car tariffs. and expectance of requiring private parking space are included. It was found that the number of passenger cars and each of the explanatory variables are nonlinearly related. Furthemore, anther forecast model is built based on the stepwise regression technique in conjunction with priori knowledge. In order to justify the forecasting power. the true values of car number of 1988 and 1989 are used to compare with the theoretical ones forecasted by these two models and by other previously developed models. It shows that these two models are much better than others in terms of the forecasted erros.
期刊論文
1.Mogridge, M. J. H.(1967)。The Prediction of Car Ownership。Journal of Transport, Economics and Policy,1(1),52-74。  new window
2.劉錚錚(19830300)。汽車普及率影響因素之分析。運輸計劃,12(1),1-8。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.Train, Kenneth(1979)。Consumers' responses to fuel-efficient vehicles: a critical review of econometric studies。Transportation,8(3),237-258。  new window
4.葉光毅(1983)。論汽車交通問題。運輸季刊,4。  延伸查詢new window
5.Bennett, William B.(1967)。Cross-Section Studies of the Consumption of Automobiles in the United States。American Economic Review,57(4),841-850。  new window
6.Deutschman, Harold D.(1967)。Auto Ownership Revisited: A Review of Methods Used iii Estimating and Distributing Auto Ownership。Highway Rescarch Record,205,31-49。  new window
7.Lemian, S. R.、Ben-Akiva, M. E.(1975)。A Disaggregate Behavioral Model of Automobile Ownership。Transportation Research Record,569,34-55。  new window
會議論文
1.王慶瑞(1988)。公路車輛管制政策之研究。中華民國運輸學會第三屆學術論文研討會,1-22。  延伸查詢new window
2.黃承傳(1987)。小汽車管制策略與方式之研究。中華民國運輸學會第二屆學術論文研討會。  延伸查詢new window
3.Kirby, H. R.(1976)。The saturation level of car ownership: estimation problems and a regional time-series analysis。PTRC Seminar。Urban Traffic Models, PTRC。  new window
研究報告
1.交通部國道高速公路局(1985)。台灣北部區域第二高速公路計畫可行性。  延伸查詢new window
2.交通部運委會(1981)。機車車輛分佈現況與預測。  延伸查詢new window
3.Bates, J. J.(1971)。A hard look at car ownership modelling。London:Department of the Environment。  new window
4.AmDec-CECI Joint Venture(1989)。West Taiwan High Speed Rail Feasibility Study。  new window
5.Chase Econometrics Associates(1974)。The effect of tax and regulatony altornatives on car sales and gasoline consumption。  new window
6.Fowkes, A. S.、Button, K. J.(1977)。A survey of technique's of car onwership forecasting. Institute for Transport Studies。Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds。  new window
7.Tanner, J. C.(1958)。An analysis of increases in motor vehicles in Great Britain and the United States。Harmondsworth:Road Research Laboratory。  new window
8.Tanner, J. C.(1977)。Car ownership trends and forecasts。Crowthorne:Transport and Road Research Laboratory。  new window
9.Tanner, J. C.(1974)。Forecasts of vehicles and traffic。Crowlliovno:Transport and Road Research Laboratory。  new window
學位論文
1.何俊輝(1980)。台灣小汽車工業發展潛力之研究(碩士論文)。國立交通大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.歐嘉瑞(1979)。台灣地區汽車需求之研究(碩士論文)。交大。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.交通部運輸研究所(1986)。台灣地區整體運輸規劃。  延伸查詢new window
2.陳竇瑞(1980)。我國汽車工業發展研究及分析。行政院經建會。  延伸查詢new window
3.劉錚錚(1983)。我國長期交通政策配合汽車工業發展之研究。行政院研考會。  延伸查詢new window
4.Ben-Akiva, M. E.、Lerman, S. R.(1976)。A Behavioral Analysis of Automobile Ownership and Modes of Travel。US Drpartment of Transportation。  new window
5.Pindyck, Robert S.、Rubinfeld, Daniel L.(1981)。Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts。McGraw-Hill Book Company。  new window
6.Wliort, R. P.(1973)。Models of Automobile Ownership。Detroit, Michigan:Ford Motor Company。  new window
圖書論文
1.交通部運輸研究所(1986)。小客車持有率成長預測。台灣地區運輸經濟分析與預測。  延伸查詢new window
2.Allanson, E. W.(1982)。Car Ownership Forecasting。Gordon and Breach。Science Publishers, Inc。  new window
 
 
 
 
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