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題名:臺灣地區十大死因聯合部分去除對平均壽命之影響
書刊名:中華公共衛生雜誌
作者:林正祥 引用關係
出版日期:1995
卷期:14:2
頁次:頁169-178
主題關鍵詞:聯合部分去除平均壽命工作年齡群多因併除生命表Jointly partial eliminationLife expectancyWorking age groupMultiple-decrement lift table
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     本研究探討了有關臺灣地區十大死因同時聯合去除某特定百分比時對平均壽命之 影響, 吾等發現若將十大死因同時完全去除 (去除百分比 100 % ),刖自出生起男、女性 之平均餘命將分別增加 16.29 年及 13.97 年而達 87.83 歲及 90.51 歲。在 0 歲,40 歲 及 65 歲時十大死因同時被去除 10 %,20 %,...,100 %時,平均餘合命之獲得和去除 百分比呈二次曲線上升; 0 歲和 40 歲時男性平均餘命之獲得皆高於女性,在 65 歲時則 女性略高於男性。且在十大死因聯合去除 10 %,50 %或 100 %時,男、女平均餘命之獲 得因年齡之增長而呈二次曲線下降。 0 ∼ 60 歲間男性平均餘命之獲得均高於女性,惟 60 歲以後差異減少,女性甚而較男性為高。 此外,由於工作年齡群 (15-65 歲 ) 對國家經濟 發展影響至鉅,故乃針對此一特定年齡群,算出十大死因聯合部分法除對平均餘命影響之迴 歸模式,在控制年齡、性別等因素下,求出其十大死因去除不同百分比迴歸係數所佔之百分 比, 此可視為十大死因間競爭性風險對平均餘命之影響程度, 其依序為腦血管疾病 (21.3 % )、惡性腫瘤 (20.5 % )、心臟病 (20 % )、意外災害 (8.6 % )、肺炎 (5.8 % )、 糖尿病 (5.8 % )、 高血壓 (5.2 % )、支氣管疾瘤 (5.2 % )、腎臟病 (3.9 % ) 及慢 性肝病 (3.6 % )。此當有助於政府相關部門預防十大死因預算之合理分配。
     This paper studies the effect of jointly partial elimination of the ten leading causes of death on life expectancy in Taiwan. We find that when all the ten causes of death are simultaneously eliminated, the life expectancy of male and female are incresed by 16.23 years and 13.97 years respectively. At age 0,40 and 65, when the ten causcs are simultaneously eliminated at 10%, 20%, ..., and 100%, the life expectancy increases almost quadratically. At age 0 and 40 the gain in life expectncy of male is greater than that of female, but at age 65 the gain of female is greater than that of male; also at the eliminating rates of 10%, 50% and 100% the gain in life expectancy of male is greater than that of female between age 0 and age 60 while the gain of life expectancy of female might be greater than that of male after age 60. In addition, we investigate the gain of years of working age group. Through adjustments of age and sex, we contruct a regression function of the gain of life expectancy on the percentage of jointly partial elimination of the ten causes. By using the partial regression coefficients (β 's), we can figure out each corresponding percentage of the ten leading causes of death. This can be regarded as the effect of competing risks among the ten leading cuases of death on life expectancy. The higher the corresponding percentage, the more impact. of the cause of death on the life expectancy. By controlling age and sex the order of corresponding percentage of regression coefficients of the ten leading causes of death are Cerebrovascular disease (21.3%), Malignant neoplasm (20.5%), Heart disease (20%), Accident (8.6%), Pneumonia (5.8%), Diabetes (5.8%), Hypertension (5.2%), Bronchitis (5.2%), Nephritis (3.9%) and Chronic Liver Disease (3.6%). This shows the relative effect on life expectancy among the ten leading causes of death at working age group. Based on the cost-benefit standpoint, this result would help allocating the budget for setting an effective preventive programs of the government.
期刊論文
1.Manton, K. G.、Tolley, H. D.、Poss, S. S.(1976)。Life table techniques for multiple cause mortality。Demography,13(4),541-564。  new window
2.Keyfitz, Nathan(1977)。What difference would it make if cancer were eradicated? An examination of the Taeuber paradox。Demography,14(4),411-418。  new window
3.Hickman, J. C.、Esteil, R. J.(1969)。On the use of partial life expectancies in setting health goals。Am J Public Health,59(12),2243-2250。  new window
4.Chiang, C. L.(1960)。A stochastic study of the life table and its applications: II. Sample variance of the observed expectation of life and other biometric function。Human Biology,32,221-238。  new window
5.Tamashiro, H.、Fukutomi, K.、Lee, E. S.(1987)。Methyl mercury Exposure and Mortality in Japan: A Life Table Analysis。Arch Environ Health,42,100-107。  new window
6.Chiang, C. L.(1991)。Competing risks in mortality analysis。An Rev Public Health,12,281-307。  new window
7.林正祥(1992)。台灣地區三大死因部分去除對平均壽命之影響。行政院國科會人文及社會科學研究彙刊,2(2),250-260。  延伸查詢new window
8.Tsai, S. P.、Lee, E. S.、Hardy, R. J.(1978)。The effect of a reduction in leading causes of death: potential gains in life expectancy。Am. Public Health,68,966-971。  new window
9.Tamashiro, H.、Fukutomi, K.(1985)。Potential gain in expectancy of life: Kumamoto, Japan, 1969-82。Jpn. J. Public Health (in Japanese),32,369-374。  new window
10.Tsiatis, A.(1975)。A nonidentifiability aspect of the problem of competing risks。Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,72(1),20-22。  new window
圖書
1.Retherford, R. D.(1975)。The changing sex differentials in mortality。Westport, C. T.:Greenwood Press。  new window
2.Preston, Samuel H.(1976)。Mortality Patterns in National Populations。NY:Academic Press。  new window
3.Chiang, C. L.(1968)。Introduction to Stochastic Processes in Biostatistics。New York:John Wiley and Sons, Inc.。  new window
其他
1.行政院衛生署。生命统計1988-1990。  延伸查詢new window
 
 
 
 
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