:::

詳目顯示

回上一頁
題名:Daily Price Limits Policy and Market Volatility in the Taiwan Security Market
書刊名:交大管理學報
作者:王淑芬 引用關係
出版日期:1993
卷期:13:2
頁次:頁103-129
主題關鍵詞:臺灣證券市場漲跌幅市場振幅性
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(0) 博士論文(0) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:0
  • 共同引用共同引用:0
  • 點閱點閱:34
就政府政策目的而言,漲跌幅制度可以降低市場的振幅性。然而從財務理論的觀點言,這項關係並不明確。其中涉及兩項相關的假設;一是依據情報假設的論點(information hypothesis),證人的振幅性完全受新資訊流入的影響;如果也受到漲跌幅制度的影響,那全是因為統計上的截斷效果(truncation effect)。此外依據過度反應的假設(overreaction hypothesis),漲跌幅的設置可以有效地透過壓抑市場投機以冷卻過熱的市場來降低市場的振幅。然而這項假設的對立主張是認為由於漲跌幅的存在,同時也會因為當股價遇上漲跌停板時,增加了流動性成本而產生額外的賣壓和買壓,反而更增加市場的振幅性。因此這兩項滿四係似乎並不明確。在財務文獻上有關漲跌幅的研究在理論上已有所探討,然而有關的實證研究確很少。有鍵於此,本研究以臺灣證卷市場為例,主要採用加權的最小平方法(weighted least square)來研究漲跌幅與市場振幅性的關係。依據研究的結果顯示,發現漲跌幅的與平均每日的振幅(daily volatility)有正相關。但若加長衡量振幅的期間如二天,三天或一星期時,則這項關係並不太顯著。推論其原因是它們之間的正關係之所以存在是由於統計上的截斷效果所造成。本研究也另外探討它們的因果關係,發現漲跌幅是因而市場的振幅是果。換言之即當漲跌幅擴大時即市場的振幅也隨而增加;反之亦然。同樣地這個結論也與截斷效果一致。
The stated regulatory objective for imposing price limits is to reduce return volatility. However from the financial theory, the relationship is ambiguous. Two hypothesis are relevant. First, the information hypothesis argues that volatility is related to new information, and price limits will influence volatility only through the truncation effect. Second, the overreaction hypothesis suggests that price limits can cool down an “overheated” market, and effectively dampen volatility by depressing speculative overreaction. An alternative specification of the overreaction hypothesis is that price limits may increase liquidity costs when the limit is hit and create additional buying and selling pressure. This may lead to increase the volatility. While theoretical proposition regarding the effect of price limits have been discussed in the literature, few published empirical studies from the financial theory perspective have been investigated. This study employed Taiwan stock return data obtained from the Pacific-Basin Capital Markets Research Center at Rhode Island University. The weighted least square approach is used for analyzing the relationship between the price limits and return volatility. The results show a positive relationship between price limits and daily volatility. However, as the return interval increases, this relationship becomes inconsistent. These results support the hypothesis that only the truncation effect is present. The cause and effect between limit changes and volatility changes is also examined. The results are ambiguous but seem to suggest that price limit increase (decreases) cause (permit) volatility increases (decreases). This is also consistent with the truncation effect.
期刊論文
1.Stoll, Hans R.、Whaley, R. E.(1990)。Stock Market Structure and Volatility。Review of Financial Studies,3(1),37-71。  new window
2.Foster, F. Douglas、Viswanathan, S.(1990)。A Theory of the Interday Variations in Volume, Variance, and Trading Costs in Securities Markets。Review of Financial Studies,3(4),593-624。  new window
3.Shiller, Robert J.(1989)。Comovements in Stock Prices and Comovements in Dividends。The Journal of Finance,44(3),719-729。  new window
4.Kodres, Laura E.(1988)。Tests Of Unbiasedness In Foreign Exchange Futures Markets: The Effects Of Price Limits。Review of Futures Markets,7(1),138-166。  new window
5.Brown, S.(1989)。The Number of Factors in Security Returns。Journal of Finance,44,1247-1262。  new window
6.Hsieh, David A.、Miller, Merton H.(1990)。Margin regulation and stock market volatility。Journal of Finance,45(1),3-30。  new window
7.Davidian, M.、Carroll, R. J.(1987)。Variance Function Estimation。Journal of American Statistical Association,82(400),1079-1091。  new window
8.Chou, Ray Yeutien(1988)。Volatility Persistence and Stock Valuations: Some Empirical Evidence Using GARCH。Journal of Applied Econometrics,3(4),279-294。  new window
9.Brennan, Michael J.(1986)。A Theory of Price Limits in Futures Markets。Journal of Financial Economics,16(2),213-233。  new window
10.Schwert, G. William(1990)。Stock Market Volatility。Financial Analysts Journal,46,23-34。  new window
11.Hart, Oliver D.、Kreps, David M.(1986)。Price Destabilizing Speculation。Journal of Political Economy,94(5),927-952。  new window
12.Hardouvelis, Gikas A.(1990)。Margin requirements, volatility, and the transitory component of stock prices。American Economic Review,80(4),736-762。  new window
13.Schwert, G. William(1990)。Stock Volatility and the Crash of '87。Review of Financial Studies,3(1),77-102。  new window
14.Breen, William、Glosten, Lawrence R.、Jagannathan, Ravi(1989)。Economic Significance of Predictable Variations in Stock Index Returns。Journal of Finance,44(5),1177-1189。  new window
15.Karpoff, J. M.(1987)。The Relation between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey。Journal of Financial & Quantitative Analysis,22(1),109-126。  new window
16.Sheikh, Aamir M.(1989)。Stock Splits, Volatility Increases and Implied Volatilities。Journal of Finance,44(5),1361-1372。  new window
17.Kyle, Albert S.(1988)。Trading Halts and Price Limits。The Review of Futures Markets,7(3),427-433。  new window
18.李又剛(19890100)。股價漲跌限幅措施下的我國股市與美、日、港三國股市之比較。臺北市銀月刊,20(1)=232,14-26。  延伸查詢new window
19.林志強、李又剛(19900400)。股價漲跌限幅放寬對我國股市的影響。臺北市銀月刊,21(4)=247,45-58。  延伸查詢new window
20.Khoury, Sarkis J.、Jones, Gerald L.(1984)。Daily Price Limits on Futures Contracts: Nature, Impact, and Justification。Review of Futures Markets,3(1),22-36。  new window
21.Ball, Clifford A.(1988)。Estimation Bias Induced by Discrete Security Prices。Journal of Finance,43(4),841-865。  new window
22.Bergulund, Tom、Liljeblom, Eva(1988)。Market Serial Correlation on a Small Security Market: A Note。Journal of Finance,43(5),1265-1274。  new window
23.Cho, E. Chinhyung、Frees, Edward W.(1988)。Estimating the Volatility of Discrete Stock Prices。Journal of Finance,43(2),451-466。  new window
24.Gottlieb, Gary、Kalay, Avner(1985)。Implications of the Discreteness of Observed Stock Prices。Journal of Finance,40(1),135-153。  new window
25.Carroll, R. J.、Ruppert, David(1982)。A Comparison Between Maximum Likelihood and Generalized Least Squares in a Heteroscedastic Linear Model。Journal of the American Statistical Association,77(380),878-882。  new window
26.Chiang, Raymond、Wei, K. C. John、Su, Soushan(1990)。Price Limits in Taiwan and Risk-Return Estimation。Pacific Basin Capital Markets Research,1,173-180。  new window
27.Chu, Po-Young、Su, Soushan、Liu, Mci-Ying(1990)。Impact of Price Limits on Taiwan Security Returns。Asia Pacific Journal of Management,7(2),141-152。  new window
28.Cohen, Kalman J.、Hawawine, Garbriel A.、Maier, Steven F.、Schwart, Robert A.、Whitcomb, David D.(1980)。Implications of Microstructure Theory of Empirical Research on Stock Price Behavior。Journal of Finance,35(2),249-257。  new window
29.Diebold, F. X.(1986)。Comment on the Modelling the Persistence of Conditional Variance。Econometrica Reviews,5(1),51-56。  new window
30.Gerety, Mason S.、McMillan, Henry、Mulherin, J. Harold(1991)。Market Microstructure and Securities Regulation。Financial Practice and Education,1(2),25-28。  new window
31.Lamoureux, Christopher G.、Lastrapes, William D.(1990)。Heteroskedasticity in Stock Return Data: Volume versus GARCH Effects。Journal of Finance,45(1),221-229。  new window
32.Lee, Insup、Pettit, R. Richardson、Swankoski, Mark V.(1990)。Daily Return Relationships among Asian Stock Markets。Journal of Business Finance & Accounting,17(2),265-283。  new window
33.Ma, Christopher K.、Rao, Ramesh P.、Sears, R. Stephen(1989)。Limit Moves and Price Resolution: The Case of the Treasury Bond Futures Markets。Journal of Futures Markets,9(4),321-335。  new window
34.March, Terry A.、Rosenfeld, Eric R.(1986)。Non-Trading, Market Making, and Estimates of Stock Price Volatility。Journal of Financial Economics,15(3),359-372。  new window
35.李又剛、連志茹(19910700)。股價漲跌限幅放寬後, 對中、大型股與小型股之股性所造成之影響。企銀季刊,15(1),1-11。  延伸查詢new window
36.李又剛、丁誌魰(19881000)。「黑色星期一」之後, 中·美·日·港四國股市之探討。臺北市銀月刊,19(10)=229,43-55。  延伸查詢new window
37.Schaede, Ulrike(1991)。Black Monday in New York, Blue Tuesday in Tokyo: The October 1987 Crash in Japan。California Management Review,33(2),39-57。  new window
38.Schwart, Robert A.、Whitcomb, David K.(1977)。The Time-Variance Relationship: Evidence on Autocorrelation in Common Stock Returns。Journal of Finance,32(1),41-55。  new window
39.Morris, Charles S.(1990)。Coordinating Circuit Breakers in Stock and Futures Markets。Economic Review,75(2),35-43。  new window
40.Schwert, G. William(1989)。Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?。Journal of Finance,44(5),1115-1153。  new window
41.French, Kenneth R.、Schwert, G. William、Stambaugh, Robert F.(1987)。Expected stock returns and volatility。Journal of Financial Economics,19(1),3-29。  new window
42.Black, Fisher(1986)。Noise。Journal of Finance,41(3),529-543。  new window
43.Akgiray, Vedat(1989)。Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Time Series of Stock Returns: Evidence and Forecasts。The Journal of Business,62(1),55-80。  new window
44.Bollerslev, Tim(1986)。Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity。Journal of Econometrics,31(3),307-327。  new window
45.Engle, Robert F.(1982)。Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation。Econometrica,50(4),987-1008。  new window
46.King, Mervyn A.、Wadhwani, Sushil(1990)。Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets。The Review of Financial Studies,3(1),5-33。  new window
47.Scholes, Myron、Williams, Joseph T.(1977)。Estimating Betas from Nonsynchronous Data。Journal of Financial Economics,5(3),309-327。  new window
48.West, Kenneth D.(1988)。Bubbles, Fads, and Stock Price Volatility Tests: A Partial Evaluation。Journal of Finance,43(3),639-660。  new window
研究報告
1.Amihud, Yakov、Mandelson, Haim(1989)。Microstructure and Price Discovery on the Tokyo Stock Exchange。  new window
2.Kodres, Laura E.(1992)。Tests of Unbiasedness in the Foreign Exchange Futures Markets: An Examination of Price Limits and Conditional Heteroskedasticity。  new window
3.Merville, Larry J.、Sewell, Susan P.(1990)。Asset Prices: Diffusion or Chaos?。Unviersity of Texas at Dallas:East Caroline Unviersity。  new window
學位論文
1.丁誌魰(1989)。股價漲跌限幅緊縮對我國股市的影響(碩士論文)。淡江大學。  延伸查詢new window
2.王慕軍(1989)。漲跌幅限制調整對穩定股價之評估(碩士論文)。國立臺灣大學。  延伸查詢new window
3.林志強(1990)。股價漲跌限幅措施,政經環境變遷暨股價行為關聯性之探討(碩士論文)。淡江大學。  延伸查詢new window
4.王惠民(1990)。以模擬法評估漲跌限幅之穩定股價效果(碩士論文)。國立中山大學。  延伸查詢new window
圖書
1.Shiller, Robert J.(1989)。Market Volatility。The MIT Press。  new window
2.Pindyck, Robert S.、Rubinfeld, Daniel L.(1981)。Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts。McGraw-Hill Book Company。  new window
3.中華民國證券市場發展基金會(1988)。股價漲跌幅限制對股市市場機能影響之研究。  延伸查詢new window
4.Maddala, G. S.(1977)。Econometrics。McGraw-Hill Book Company。  new window
5.Judge, George G.、Hill, R. Carter、Griffiths, William E.、Lutkepohl, Helmut、Lee, Tsoung-Chao(1982)。Introduction to the Theory and Practice of Econometrics。John Wiley and Sons。  new window
 
 
 
 
第一頁 上一頁 下一頁 最後一頁 top