長期以來，台灣地區之香菸市場在政策保護下，一直由公賣局獨佔。惟隨著環境之變速及國際之壓力，政府不得不開放洋菸進口，導致台灣地區之香菸市場型態丕變，公賣局獨佔之經營優勢漸形消失。面臨此種嚴重之衝擊與挑戰，公賣局之產製、行銷等策略自須審慎調整，以有所因應。香菸銷量之多寡直接影響政府及業者之相關政策與投資。不當之評估將速成資源的浪費，因此，對未來之香菸銷量作一適當及有效之預測是極其必要的。本文即以歷年來長壽牌系列捲菸銷量為基礎，應用時間數列方法與神經網路模式，建構長壽牌系列捲菸銷量之預測模式，並比較具結果。

　　　　　For a long period of time, the cigarette market in Taiwan mainly manages alone by Taiwan Tobacco & Wine Monopoly Bureau under the protection of governmental policy. With the changes of environments and international pressure, the government cannot but permit the import of foreign cigarettes and wine, which strongly leads to the changes of market style here in Taiwan area. There is no wonder that its competitive advantage on cigarettes and wine is getting lost. To facethe serious influences and challenges, Taiwan Tobacco & Wine Monopoly Bureauhas to rearrange its production and marketing to deal with this great changes. The sales volume of cigarettes directly influence the related policies and investment between government and the manufacturers here in Taiwan. And improper evaluation will also cause the waste of investment. Meanwhile, it is greatly important to make an effective and a proper forecasting of the sales volume of cigarettes in advance in the near future. Basically the purpose of the article focuses on the rolled Long Life Cigarettes sold for hundreds of years. By using the times series method, style of neural network and constructing the forecastable model for rolled Long Life Cigarette's sales volume here in Taiwan to compare it effect, maybe we can effectively find a better way for the market of cigarettes and wine for Taiwan Tabacco & Wine Monopoly Bureau.