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題名:臺灣木瓜經濟結構性變動之實證分析
書刊名:農業經濟半年刊
作者:萬鍾汶 引用關係
作者(外文):Wann, Joyce Jong-wen
出版日期:1996
卷期:60
頁次:頁31-61
主題關鍵詞:木瓜輪點毒素病結構性變動卡門濾波PapayaRingspotStructural changeKalman filter
原始連結:連回原系統網址new window
相關次數:
  • 被引用次數被引用次數:期刊(4) 博士論文(1) 專書(0) 專書論文(0)
  • 排除自我引用排除自我引用:4
  • 共同引用共同引用:4
  • 點閱點閱:22
     木瓜為本省極具發展潛力之水果產業之一。近年來由於木瓜輪點毒素病的侵襲,在缺乏對病害的有效控制下,病變不斷地發生,因而輪點病素病被視為木瓜產業發展嚴重的阻礙。本文採用狀態-空間模型與卡門濾波迴覆參數法,探討自輪點毒素病發生以來是否造成木瓜產業經濟面之結構性變動,進而瞭解木瓜產業經濟之特性。 由F統計量及概似比分別檢定木瓜供給與需求結構參數之固定性,結果發現木瓜供給之各種價格與成本彈性曾於1974-83年間有隨機性而非系統性的變異。需求面則檢定出1979年時有系統性參數結構的改變。整體而言,本省木瓜之供給與需求對價格變動均缺乏彈性,且需求對價格的反應幅度遠大於供給的反應。
     The Papaya Ringspot virus has placed tremendous damages on the productions of Papaya and constrained the development of the Papaya industry since 1975. This study intends to solve the changing structure problems of Papaya by adopting the state-space models in conjunction with an optimal estimated generating iterative algorithm, the Kalman filter, to analyze the impact and structural change of Papaya Ringspot on the Papaya industry in Taiwan. The null hypothesis of no general structural change on Taiwan papaya supply cannot be rejected for the interval of 1974-83 by applying the F-statistic test. A systematic structural change on Taiwan papaya demand is identified to have occurred in 1979. It implies that Papaya Ringspot had significantly affected the supply and demand structure of papaya in alternative ways. In general, both the supply of and the demand for papaya are inelastic, and the supply is less responsive to changing prices than the demand.
期刊論文
1.Akaike, H.(1970)。Statistical Predictor Identification。Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics,22,203-217。  new window
2.萬鍾汶、姚志華(19951200)。臺灣蔬菜需求結構性變動之分析。農業經濟半年刊,58,47-71。new window  延伸查詢new window
3.萬鍾汶、林玉娟(19950500)。臺灣椪柑之供給反應--卡門濾波處理法。農業經濟叢刊,1(1),47-85。new window  延伸查詢new window
4.郭迪賢(19921200)。木瓜果實炭疽病生物防治經濟可行性之研究。農業經濟半年刊,52,41-62。new window  延伸查詢new window
5.洪汝煌(1976)。木瓜狂株--輪點病之任事與防治。果農合作,468,23-24。  延伸查詢new window
6.Garbade, K.(1977)。Two Methods for Examining the Stability of Regression Coefficients。J. Amer. Stat. Assoc.,72,54-63。  new window
7.Chavas, J. P.(1983)。Structural Change in the Demand for Meat。American Journal of Agricultural Economics,65,8-35。  new window
8.Chow, G.(1960)。Tests of the Equality Between Two Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions。Econometrica,28,561-605。  new window
9.Hildreth, C.、Houck, J. P.(1968)。Some Estimators for Linear Model with Random Coefficients。J. Amer. Stati. Assoc.,63,584-595。  new window
10.Harvey, A. C.、Pierse, R. G.(1984)。Estimating Missing Observations in Economic Time Series。J. Amer. Stat. Assoc.,79,125-131。  new window
11.Hack, P.、Westlund, H.(1989)。Statistical Analysis of Structural Change: An Annotated Bibliography。Empirical Econ.,14,167-192。  new window
12.Sant, D. T.(1977)。Generalized Least Squares Applied to Time-Varying Parameter Models。Annals of Econ. and Social Measurement,6,301-314。  new window
13.Liu, L. M.、Hanssens, D. M.(1981)。A Bayesian Approach to Time-Varying Cross-Sectional Regression Models。J. of Econometrics,15,341-356。  new window
14.Kalman, R. E.(1961)。A New Approach to Linear Filtering and Prediction Problems。J. Basic Engineering,83,95-108。  new window
15.Jones, R. H.(1980)。Maximum Likelihood Fitting of ARMA Models to Time Series with Missing Observations。Technometrics,22,389-395。  new window
16.Van Deusen, P. C.(1991)。Trend Monitoring with Varying Coefficient Models。Forest Science,37,1365-1375。  new window
17.Tegene, A.(1990)。The Kalman Fi Iter Approach for Testing Structural Change in the Demand for Alcoholic Beverages in the US。Applied Econ.,22,1407-1416。  new window
18.Tegene, A.(1991)。Kalman Filter and the Demand for Cigarettes。Applied Econ.,23,1175-1182。  new window
19.Swaray, P. A. V. B.、Mehta, J. S.(1975)。Bayesian and Non-Bayesia Analysis of Switching Regressions and of Random Coefficient Regression Models。J. Amer. Stat. Assoc.,70,593-602。  new window
圖書
1.Harvey, A. C.(1990)。Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter。Cambridge University Press。  new window
2.Saga, A. P.、Melsa, J. L.(1971)。Estimation Theory with Applications to Communications and Control。New York:McGraw-Hill Book Co.。  new window
3.Shumway, R. H.(1988)。Applied Statistical Time Series Analysis。Prentice Hall, Inc.。  new window
4.Anderson, B. D. O.、Moore, J. B.(1979)。Optimal Filtering。Englewood Cliffs, NJ:Prentice-Hall。  new window
圖書論文
1.Chow, G. G.(1984)。Random and Changing Coefficient Models。Handbook of Econometrics。Amsterdam:Elevier Science Publisher。  new window
2.Harvey, A. C.、Phillips, G. D. A.(1981)。The Estimation of Regression Models with Time-Varying Parameters。Games, Economic Dynamics, and Time Series Analysis。Wilen:Physica-Verlag。  new window
 
 
 
 
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