公園及戶外遊憩地區之擁擠問題是目前臺灣各主要遊憩據點的普遍問題之一，管理者須有更好、更多的資訊參考以做為決策時之依據，同時並能針對不同之狀況做立即反應。而運用電腦模擬為一快速且正確的方法之一，因此本研究有關公園中遊客分佈情形之模擬方法，應能為目前臺灣的管理問題提出實質之效益。有關公園及遊憩區遊客數量之研究文獻中可發現，大多數之研究著於遊客之認知 (Clark et al. 1971; Neilson and Shelby 1977; Stankey 1980; Anderson 1980, Vask et al. 1980)，雖然密度不一定為影響遊客擁擠知覺之主要因子(Stokols 1972; Cohen et al. 1975; Desor 1972)，但其仍為產生擁擠知覺之必要條件及各項管理措施之重要依據，因此本研究乃以作業研究中之排隊理論運用於著重於公園遊客數量與分佈之預測研究，以進一步探測遊客於本區內遊玩時所遭遇之擁擠情形。本研究基地一木柵動物園為主全國首要之教育園區之一，但其假日尖峰時間的擁擠情形，乃是遊客常遭遇的情況。依據木柵動物園相關研究顯示，其目前園內供應之參觀運輸系統，在民國90年將高達4000∼5000人次。依目前現有的參觀運輸系統勢必無法負荷。本研究的架構主要在於達成下列目的：一、提出公園內遊憩容許量經營管理參數，其可成為決策單位決定遊憩容許量之有效參考數據。二、建立本研究基地之電腦模型，並對於如何將遊憩區之實際狀況模擬成為電腦模型之過程詳加討論，以成為往後研究之參考模型，並佐以實際調查測值與心理性指標，進行電腦模擬可行性之驗証。三、在融合上述之兩項目標後，本研究建立主題式遊憩區遊憩容許量決策模式。亦即提出適合描述主題式遊憩區之經營管理參數，以及如何應用電腦模擬來成為決策工具。而研究中亦進行三個模擬狀況之比較，試圖尋求達到公共設施及解說資源合理分配的方案。公園及戶外遊憩地區之擁擠問題是目前臺灣各主要遊憩據點的普遍問題之一，管理者須有更好、更多的資訊參考，以做為決策時之依據，同時並能針對不同之狀況做立即反應。本研究嘗試運用電腦，進行遊客於木柵動物園內分佈狀況之模擬，結果發現透過電腦所建立之模型，透過實際數量與心理層面的驗証，的確可提供管理者進行正確而快速的決策方法。因此本研究對於公園中遊客中分佈情形，確實能為臺灣目前的管理問題提出實質效益。

　　　　　Crowding is one of the prominent problems in the recreation areas of Taiwan. Managers have to equip with more and more database for making appropriate decisions. Computer simulation provides fast and accurate tools for providing information for the managers. Therefore, this study tried to apply computer simulation to the park management for more beneficial project for the crowding problem. Most of the crowding research articles emphasize on the visitors' cognition, although density is not the most critical factor for the crowding perception. However, it is a necessary and important management factor. Therefore, this study tried to apply the queuing theory of operation research to predict and discuss visitors' distribution. The Zoo of Taipei City, which is one of the leading education centers in Taiwan, was selected as the testing site. However, the crowding problem during the weekend happens repeatedly. According to the study of The Zoo, the demand of transportation system in the Zoo will be 4000-5000 people in one day at the year 2001, which can not afforded by the existing transport system. The purpose of this study is to: 1.Propose the manageable parameters of visitors' carrying capacity by the simulation, which is a useful tool for the decision-makers. 2.Built the simulation model of the testing site, discuss the process of how to simplifying the real condition to a simulation model. 3.Create a decision-aid system for the recreation capacity problems for the theme park managers by proposing an appropriate management parameters of the theme park. The result shows there are no statistically significant differences between the simulated distribution and real visitors' distribution. This proves the effectiveness of the simulation model. Furthermore, there are no statistically significant differences between real visitors' distribution and visitors' crowding perception at different locations. The result supports the importance of the density factor on visitors' crowding perception.