對兩岸直航航點選擇問題，一般以網路總成本最小為決策目標，亦即對消費者選 擇行為而言，消費者皆以成本最小來選擇其起迄點間的飛航航線。然而實際上，消費者會受 其他因素的考量，例如航空公司所提供服務之差別或如轉機機場之擁擠情形、氣候狀態等都 有可能使得消費者選擇非最低成本之直航航線。因此本研究假設消費者以效用函數及追求效 用最大來選擇直航航線，進而探討兩岸直航航點選擇問題。若效用函數的不確定因素與以往 航空運輸消費者行為，具有極端值分配，且為同一獨立的分配，則消費者選擇各直航航線的 機率便形成多項羅吉特模式。本研究證實該模式可轉換為對等之凸函數數學規劃模式，且此 數學規劃模式具有一般化模式(generalized model)之特性。亦即當消費者極度重視成本時， 則模式可求解獲得消費者依照最小成本來選擇直航航線以進行轉機。本研究以Frank-Wolfe 演算法進行凸函數數學規劃模式求解。最後，本研究以臺灣國際與大陸內陸的票價進行實證 研究，測試消費者成本效用參數對航線選擇與直航航點旅客數之影響與直航航點數之邊際利 益，並探討考慮轉機成本對直航航點轉機旅客數之影響。

　　　　　To determine air hubs for direct passenger flights between mainland China and Taiwan is an important and critical political and economic issue. Most studies apply p-median theory to determine their locations. The basic assumption given by the theory is that all passengers will always select the least cost routes for their travels. However, some studies show that the congestion of airports and whether or not airlines provide convenient services for making connecting flights are among the many other factors that may impact consumers' route choices. Thus, in this research, we apply the consumer-choice theory to determine passenger routes. Furthermore, we study its impact on the selection of air hubs for direct flights. The utility function of route choice is a function of the cost of the route and a random distribution that composes other factors,ε. Ifεposes an lID distribution, the probability of choosing a route obeys a Multinomial Logit model. We demonstrate that MNL is equivalent to a convex program. This allows us to apply the Frank-Wolfe algorithm for the problem. The equivalent mathematical model is a generalized model. When the value of cost is extremely high, it derives the result of p-median model, that is, all passengers select the least cost paths for their journeys. In the end, we use the real world data to conduct numerical testing and several sensitivity analyses. They are the impact of the value of cost on passengers' route choices and also on the number of transit passengers at each air hub, and the impact of transit cost on passengers' route choices. Lastly, we determine the marginal profit of an additional direct air hub.